Apparently so, in the age of social media, when no one has any idea just how much was real and just how much was theatre, only that it was some percentage of both. You could say the whole mess ended up as more a mutiny then a civil war or insurrection, but beyond that?
Only thing that can be said for certain is that everyone came out worse off than they were three days ago. Putin called off the treason case(!!!) and looks about as feeble as he ever has (Lukashenko's intervention at Putin's request is particularly humiliating). Prigozhin's men and Wagner's supporters among the non-Wagner convict troops (i.e. the Storm Z suicide battalions) are reportedly mad at him for backing down (videos to this effect have been going up). The Ministry of Defence gang, Shoigu, Gerasimov, well... I guess they were a joke already anyway.
It's not over - it may not even be on pause for long. No meaningful specifics or details about any deal have been released, and even if we had those, there's no guarantee they'll be observed.
I guess wait to see who gets defenestrated first.
EDIT: Apparently Wagner shot down at least 7 aircraft and killed at least 13 Russian airmen and pilots during their little jaunt, which would make this one of the deadliest days for the Russian air force in the war to date.
Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Not really apropos of anything, but I was listening to Well There's Your Problem and they mentioned that the M4 Highway- the one the Wagner Group took to Rostov during their mutiny- is actually a toll road. And the way my brain is wired, I can't help but think of Blazing Saddles.
"Has anyone got a dime? Someone's gotta go back and get a shitload of dimes!"
"Has anyone got a dime? Someone's gotta go back and get a shitload of dimes!"
: Mention something from KPCC or Rachel Maddow
: Go on about Homeworld for X posts-
Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
So, as part of Putin's Damnatio Memoriae of Prigozhin, his business empire in Russia is being dismantled (some but not all of it is being seized and redistributed, of course).
Most famously Prigozhin was the owner of Concord, the single largest food supplier and caterer to the Russian army. Notably, over the period of its contract, Concord had been sued by the Russian Ministry of Defence 560(!) times for providing adulterated, contaminated, rotten, infected, and just plain inedible food, or perhaps more accurately, vaguely food-like substances.
This is not post-mutiny retroactive justification either (though there's plenty of that going around). The legal filings are public in Russia and were in the news at times. Even without that, Russian soldiers have been sharing pictures and videos of Concord's "food" for years. Prigozhin is and always was a vile piece of shit in every capacity; nobody had to make up anything - all the Kremlin had to do was stop covering for him.
Concord staff recently were found to have spent the last few days burning records of everything per orders from Concord's senior management. Understandably, no one wanted ownership of Concord, so instead of being gifted to a Putin crony, they're simply dissolving it; Concord's contracts have all been abrogated, and all employees have been fired without severance. Prigozhin's media properties are another of his businesses being obliterated in a similar way.
The main wrinkle here is that the Russian forces in Ukraine have never ceased having issues with food and many Russian soldiers go days without rations of any sort, or even water. While Concord was atrocious, they were also the single largest food service for the Russian army in Ukraine, as well as for field hospitals and other support facilities.
Oops.
Oh and Prigozhin has also-unsurprisingly vanished off the face of the earth.
Most famously Prigozhin was the owner of Concord, the single largest food supplier and caterer to the Russian army. Notably, over the period of its contract, Concord had been sued by the Russian Ministry of Defence 560(!) times for providing adulterated, contaminated, rotten, infected, and just plain inedible food, or perhaps more accurately, vaguely food-like substances.
This is not post-mutiny retroactive justification either (though there's plenty of that going around). The legal filings are public in Russia and were in the news at times. Even without that, Russian soldiers have been sharing pictures and videos of Concord's "food" for years. Prigozhin is and always was a vile piece of shit in every capacity; nobody had to make up anything - all the Kremlin had to do was stop covering for him.
Concord staff recently were found to have spent the last few days burning records of everything per orders from Concord's senior management. Understandably, no one wanted ownership of Concord, so instead of being gifted to a Putin crony, they're simply dissolving it; Concord's contracts have all been abrogated, and all employees have been fired without severance. Prigozhin's media properties are another of his businesses being obliterated in a similar way.
The main wrinkle here is that the Russian forces in Ukraine have never ceased having issues with food and many Russian soldiers go days without rations of any sort, or even water. While Concord was atrocious, they were also the single largest food service for the Russian army in Ukraine, as well as for field hospitals and other support facilities.
Oops.
Oh and Prigozhin has also-unsurprisingly vanished off the face of the earth.
Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Mongrel wrote:Oh and Prigozhin has also-unsurprisingly vanished off the face of the earth.
Who?
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
For months and months "desperate mobiks make video appeal directly to Putin as if he somehow gave a damn or even thought of them as human beings at all" has been something of an aptly-bleak Russian film genre. The people in said video are often sent to immediate death in the most suicidal of frontline positions (on rare occasions the very few survivors of the previous video make a new one, which is... well...).
One of the long-running themes has been the lack of food and water, and indeed it seems that this is genuine. Concord was part of it (as mentioned previously), but so is plain old disorganization, graft by middle ranks, etc. Credit where it's due of course, the Ukrainians bombing the everloving shit out of any and all supply depots might just be having a wee bit of an effect too, though one wonders how much damage the Ukrainians really have to do given the truly dire state of Russian logistics. Troop rotations are another big issue, as men are going months without relief, and in that case the problem may simply be that Russia has put basically all their forces on the front lines, with no meaningful reserves at all (which not only means no reserves, but no rotations).
Well, a new theme has been emerging in the past week or so. In addition to the lack of food, water, or rest, Russian soldiers are now saying they are receiving no ammunition (not just shells but bullets!) and are even going short of rifles. They were already being forced to charge tanks with only assault rifles, now those rifles are basically just pointed sticks (their own words), if they even have one at all.
Basically, while the Russian defensive lines are more or less properly-constructed, don't be all that surprised if at some point in the next 2-3 months a huge portion of the Russian front collapses spectacularly. That doesn't mean it will happen, just that it should come as no shock if it does.
One of the long-running themes has been the lack of food and water, and indeed it seems that this is genuine. Concord was part of it (as mentioned previously), but so is plain old disorganization, graft by middle ranks, etc. Credit where it's due of course, the Ukrainians bombing the everloving shit out of any and all supply depots might just be having a wee bit of an effect too, though one wonders how much damage the Ukrainians really have to do given the truly dire state of Russian logistics. Troop rotations are another big issue, as men are going months without relief, and in that case the problem may simply be that Russia has put basically all their forces on the front lines, with no meaningful reserves at all (which not only means no reserves, but no rotations).
Well, a new theme has been emerging in the past week or so. In addition to the lack of food, water, or rest, Russian soldiers are now saying they are receiving no ammunition (not just shells but bullets!) and are even going short of rifles. They were already being forced to charge tanks with only assault rifles, now those rifles are basically just pointed sticks (their own words), if they even have one at all.
Basically, while the Russian defensive lines are more or less properly-constructed, don't be all that surprised if at some point in the next 2-3 months a huge portion of the Russian front collapses spectacularly. That doesn't mean it will happen, just that it should come as no shock if it does.
Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Okay obviously I'm not surprised by the news Prigozhin is (apparently) dead, but I'm a little surprised they straight-up shot down his plane. Putin usually at least gestures vaguely toward plausible deniability.
Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Shouldn't have taken the window seat.
The deniability mechanism is suggested by the immediate response of the Federal Air Transport Agency that they've already launched an investigation. Very roughly speaking, there are two Russian agencies that can conduct investigations into air accidents, the approximate equivalents of the FAA and NTSB - but they do not get along well at all, and FATA (their FAA equivalent) is the one that is both less technically qualified and very much under the government's thumb.
The deniability mechanism is suggested by the immediate response of the Federal Air Transport Agency that they've already launched an investigation. Very roughly speaking, there are two Russian agencies that can conduct investigations into air accidents, the approximate equivalents of the FAA and NTSB - but they do not get along well at all, and FATA (their FAA equivalent) is the one that is both less technically qualified and very much under the government's thumb.
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
With a case like Prigozhin's, I can see why Putin definitely wants everyone to know. FWIW, it's exactly two months since the mutiny (the ten people on board Prigozhin's plane also exactly mirrors the ten Russian pilots killed by Wagner on their way north, but that's obviously a bit harder to arrange). The date at least will be no accident.
The interesting bit is what happens with Wagner. They were trying to sign new contracts in Africa in order to preserve their independence from the Kremlin (remember the event that precipitated the Wagner mutiny was the impending deadline for all Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Russian army), and Prigozhin claimed to have some lined up. The Kremlin has founded two or three new mercenary companies with an eye to replacing Wagner in Africa long-term, but as of yesterday it was still Wagner with the rep and connections that got contracts in Africa, and that activity still basically constituted almost the entirety of Russia's active foreign policy in Africa.
Wagner is still SS-grade horrible collectively, and since the mutiny the troops which were in Ukraine hadn't been fighting anywhere which was a net gain for the world. Shoigu's going to want those experienced fighters back on the front lines (which are under huge pressure in southern Ukraine), but at the same time the Wagner guys also despise the regular army and other than a few "traitors" most of them had scorned requests to go back as part of the regular army so far.
I would also want to know where Dmitri Utkin is (or was).
tl;dr a lot of things are up in the air, though Prigozhin's plane is not one of them.
The interesting bit is what happens with Wagner. They were trying to sign new contracts in Africa in order to preserve their independence from the Kremlin (remember the event that precipitated the Wagner mutiny was the impending deadline for all Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Russian army), and Prigozhin claimed to have some lined up. The Kremlin has founded two or three new mercenary companies with an eye to replacing Wagner in Africa long-term, but as of yesterday it was still Wagner with the rep and connections that got contracts in Africa, and that activity still basically constituted almost the entirety of Russia's active foreign policy in Africa.
Wagner is still SS-grade horrible collectively, and since the mutiny the troops which were in Ukraine hadn't been fighting anywhere which was a net gain for the world. Shoigu's going to want those experienced fighters back on the front lines (which are under huge pressure in southern Ukraine), but at the same time the Wagner guys also despise the regular army and other than a few "traitors" most of them had scorned requests to go back as part of the regular army so far.
I would also want to know where Dmitri Utkin is (or was).
tl;dr a lot of things are up in the air, though Prigozhin's plane is not one of them.
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Russia is claiming Utkin was also on board. May they both rot in hell.
Remaining Wagner troops are openly vowing revenge after a quickly-convened "council of commanders": "Many discussions of what Wagner will do in this situation. We'll say one thing - we're starting off. Expect us!"
This may not be an idle threat. Wagner's "success" and Prigozhin's self-promotion bought them a lot of fans in both the Russian army's rank and file AND its senior officers. Telegram is on fire with enraged and dismayed Russian soldiers and nationalists.
Meanwhile two days ago, Putin very publicly reaffirmed his support for Shoigu and Gerasimov, two idiots who're possibly the worst-equipped to handle any sort of uprising. Certainly they already fucked up large during the initial mutiny (Gerasimov very literally did nothing - these days he would probably lose a battle of wits with a potted plant).
Wagner's HQ in St. Petersburg has not, as of this writing, been raided or anything to that effect. Wireless internet to Wagner's new base in Belarus has been severely disrupted, but I imagine some communications still get through.
Remaining Wagner troops are openly vowing revenge after a quickly-convened "council of commanders": "Many discussions of what Wagner will do in this situation. We'll say one thing - we're starting off. Expect us!"
This may not be an idle threat. Wagner's "success" and Prigozhin's self-promotion bought them a lot of fans in both the Russian army's rank and file AND its senior officers. Telegram is on fire with enraged and dismayed Russian soldiers and nationalists.
Meanwhile two days ago, Putin very publicly reaffirmed his support for Shoigu and Gerasimov, two idiots who're possibly the worst-equipped to handle any sort of uprising. Certainly they already fucked up large during the initial mutiny (Gerasimov very literally did nothing - these days he would probably lose a battle of wits with a potted plant).
Wagner's HQ in St. Petersburg has not, as of this writing, been raided or anything to that effect. Wireless internet to Wagner's new base in Belarus has been severely disrupted, but I imagine some communications still get through.
Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Has anyone considered the possibility that the plane crashed just because Wagner Group is terrible at vehicle maintenance? (Not saying that Putin wouldn't have shot it down eventually anyway)
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Upthorn wrote:Has anyone considered the possibility that the plane crashed just because Wagner Group is terrible at vehicle maintenance? (Not saying that Putin wouldn't have shot it down eventually anyway)
A lot of people actually! There's a parts embargo and such, so it's plausible.
But all the initial footage and images posted from the crash site are showing shrapnel holes in any remaining semi-intact surfaces (per military experts on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, not my personal eval, though even I can see the punctures are inward, not outward). Also there were two booms followed by the plane immediately spiraling downward, which is still possible in an equipment failure, but that would have to have been a truly catastrophic failure.
They were also flying over an area where a bunch of S-300 SAM batteries are stationed (an S-500 would probably have destroyed the plane entirely, but the Air Defence troops stationed there have other munitions to use as well, Pantsirs, etc.).
It seems safe to say we can finally answer the question of "What air defence doing?"
EDIT: Local videos are surfacing that may or may not show an impact smoke puff from a hit just prior to the video starting.
Honestly I don't think it even matters much at this point. Wagner, the Russian senior defence staff, the state security arms, the Russian army, the Ukrainians, Lukashenko, and the world in general are going to assume Putin did it and react largely on that basis.
Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
That sounds pretty conclusive, thanks!
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Yesterday one of the few remaining independent Russian military bloggers was run over in an "accident" in Donetsk, the latest in a string of arrests, deaths, and disappearances among the Russian pseudo-journalist sphere which has been happening for 2-3 months but accelerated dramatically after Prigozhin's mutiny. Shocking news, I know.
These were not good people; no tears should be shed for them. It's been said before, but it bears repeating that these are fascist white hypernationalists, more than half of them were war criminals, and many of them openly celebrated their vile activities. Most of them were or are actively serving on the front lines. Igor Girkin, the poster child for these creatures and the man who led the operation which shot down flight MH-17 in 2014 (which was a huge fuckup - they had meant to down a Ukrainian airliner), has been rotting in a Moscow prison for the last month.
But the Russian military blogging community were collectively one of the few sources of information which discussed Russian failures, losses, and problems openly and more-or-less objectively - they did want to win, after all. In the first half of this year, the Kremlin set about bringing many members of that community onside with bribes of cushy jobs, threats, and appeals to "unity" and "patriotism". Now they've gone after the ones they couldn't turn. Those holdouts frequently spoke of the grave danger (for the Russians) of the vast number of pliant officers who only write pleasing reports full of lies, of a chain of command and an entire war built on information which isn't just inaccurate but pure fantasy, the sort Shoigu or Putin quote frequently - classics where millions upon millions of the enemy have been destroyed, untold thousands of tanks, planes and other equipment destroyed, and victory is imminent any day.
From the point of view of observers both civil and military looking for accurate information or OSINT, the snuffing out of this information stream is rather dire. But from the point of view of the Ukrainians doing the fighting and dying? Well, it is very welcome news indeed.
These were not good people; no tears should be shed for them. It's been said before, but it bears repeating that these are fascist white hypernationalists, more than half of them were war criminals, and many of them openly celebrated their vile activities. Most of them were or are actively serving on the front lines. Igor Girkin, the poster child for these creatures and the man who led the operation which shot down flight MH-17 in 2014 (which was a huge fuckup - they had meant to down a Ukrainian airliner), has been rotting in a Moscow prison for the last month.
But the Russian military blogging community were collectively one of the few sources of information which discussed Russian failures, losses, and problems openly and more-or-less objectively - they did want to win, after all. In the first half of this year, the Kremlin set about bringing many members of that community onside with bribes of cushy jobs, threats, and appeals to "unity" and "patriotism". Now they've gone after the ones they couldn't turn. Those holdouts frequently spoke of the grave danger (for the Russians) of the vast number of pliant officers who only write pleasing reports full of lies, of a chain of command and an entire war built on information which isn't just inaccurate but pure fantasy, the sort Shoigu or Putin quote frequently - classics where millions upon millions of the enemy have been destroyed, untold thousands of tanks, planes and other equipment destroyed, and victory is imminent any day.
From the point of view of observers both civil and military looking for accurate information or OSINT, the snuffing out of this information stream is rather dire. But from the point of view of the Ukrainians doing the fighting and dying? Well, it is very welcome news indeed.
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Sorry for Twitter but the original video is from some Russian site I can't embed (and probably shouldn't) and this is absolutely bananas.
Russia’s defense minister on Wednesday boasted about the country’s military prowess on the battlefield in Ukraine [...] He appeared caught off guard when the reporter concluded the interview with the question, “Will we win?” Staring off into the distance for a long pause, Shoigu shrugged before saying simply, “We have no other option.”
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
New Russian Army recruitment ad features two soldiers talking about where they would like to live in Ukraine - a tony area of Kyiv or a nice seaside home in Odessa.
Gotta have that living space.
Gotta have that living space.
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Mongrel
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine
Russian news network 'Ria' (one of Russia's largest) reported yesterday that the Russian Armed Forces shot down a Storm Shadow cruise missile, killing all members of the British crew inside.
*clears throat*
...
In less-funny news, the Russians put out another recruitment ad like the above which I will not be linking because it features a Russian soldier ordering a bound Ukrainian POW to say the Russian versions of Ukrainian town and city names at knifepoint.
*clears throat*
...
In less-funny news, the Russians put out another recruitment ad like the above which I will not be linking because it features a Russian soldier ordering a bound Ukrainian POW to say the Russian versions of Ukrainian town and city names at knifepoint.
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