War. War never changes. (Except when it does)

[Brantly B.]

2017 is the year everyone gets hoisted on their own 2016.

[Mongrel]

Well, for a few minutes there I was like "Bout that time again chaps."



Actually turned out to be more or less accurate!

O___o

[Brantly B.]

I have this terrible suspicion that the reason Trump acted so quickly on this is because it happened to almost perfectly parallel a West Wing episode.

[Thad]

He should have gotten approval from Congress, but that aside, I think this may have actually been our best call under the circumstances: take out the facility that launched the chemical weapons, but give advance warning to minimize fatalities.

I'm certainly extremely wary about escalation and Trump's ability to handle it, and I haven't forgotten where "he's a monster who gassed his own people; we can't just do nothing" got us the last time. And that's before we even get into Assad as the enemy of our enemy, ISIS. This shit's way too complicated for me to guess with any real confidence what the right thing to do is. But at this one moment and in this one instance, I think this might have been it.

[Mongrel]

Okay, so last night the one thing that made this not an escalatory disaster was that the US warned Russia through the "deconflict" channel set up specifically to avoid accidental incidents between the two nations.

Russia has notified the U.S.-led coalition of its intent to suspend a communication channel for avoiding air accidents in the crowded airspace over Syria, a coalition spokesman said on Friday.

A Russian foreign ministry statement had said that Moscow was suspending an air safety agreement with the United States originally drawn up to ensure that the two countries’ planes did not collide. A spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters separately that Russia would keep military channels of communication open with Washington, but would not exchange any information through them.

“I can confirm that the Russians communicated their intent regarding the deconfliction channel to the Coalition today,” coalition spokesman U.S. Air Force Colonel John Dorrian said in an email.

Ruh roh

[Mongrel]

[Yoji]

Probably only speaking for myself here, but I'm not sure there's any good decision to be made in Syria, just differing flavors of bad. Felt that way with Obama, and it hasn't really changed with The Bastard.

[Thad]

Ken White asks some good questions.

[Blossom]

He should have gotten approval from Congress, but that aside, I think this may have actually been our best call under the circumstances: take out the facility that launched the chemical weapons, but give advance warning to minimize fatalities.

I'm certainly extremely wary about escalation and Trump's ability to handle it, and I haven't forgotten where "he's a monster who gassed his own people; we can't just do nothing" got us the last time. And that's before we even get into Assad as the enemy of our enemy, ISIS. This shit's way too complicated for me to guess with any real confidence what the right thing to do is. But at this one moment and in this one instance, I think this might have been it.

As the story was breakingthat Kushner lied about meetings with Russians in order to get his security clearance, Trump selects an air defense base that had never handled chemical weapons that has been primarily used for strikes against ISIL - which is why reports on the ground are that they're rejoicing at the attack. He contacts Russia and Syria ahead of time to ensure that they get all their people out of the facility and sends $100million in missiles that do not possess the incendiary capacity to destroy chemical weapons at it, hitting fuel tanks and some decomissioned jets but leaving the actual runways untouched, which are the parts you actually have to hit to take out an airfield. So the airfield is not destroyed, only temporarily disabled until new fuel is brought in. This attack was made without consulting the State department or the NSC, as well as Congress or the United nations, the latter two of which means this act of war violates both US and International Law. But that's okay, because at least it killed more children.

Absolutely nothing about this was the right thing to do.

[Mongrel]

Russia backed down on cutting the communications channel.

Man, now I really am wondering if this is going how Putin wants. I mean, all credit to our human Xanatos, but I don't think Loose Cannon Trump is good news for him.

[Thad]

He should have gotten approval from Congress, but that aside, I think this may have actually been our best call under the circumstances: take out the facility that launched the chemical weapons, but give advance warning to minimize fatalities.

I'm certainly extremely wary about escalation and Trump's ability to handle it, and I haven't forgotten where "he's a monster who gassed his own people; we can't just do nothing" got us the last time. And that's before we even get into Assad as the enemy of our enemy, ISIS. This shit's way too complicated for me to guess with any real confidence what the right thing to do is. But at this one moment and in this one instance, I think this might have been it.

As the story was breakingthat Kushner lied about meetings with Russians in order to get his security clearance, Trump selects an air defense base that had never handled chemical weapons that has been primarily used for strikes against ISIL - which is why reports on the ground are that they're rejoicing at the attack. He contacts Russia and Syria ahead of time to ensure that they get all their people out of the facility and sends $100million in missiles that do not possess the incendiary capacity to destroy chemical weapons at it, hitting fuel tanks and some decomissioned jets but leaving the actual runways untouched, which are the parts you actually have to hit to take out an airfield. So the airfield is not destroyed, only temporarily disabled until new fuel is brought in. This attack was made without consulting the State department or the NSC, as well as Congress or the United nations, the latter two of which means this act of war violates both US and International Law. But that's okay, because at least it killed more children.

Absolutely nothing about this was the right thing to do.

Yeah, that sounds more like the Trump Administration.

[Mongrel]

That is a good collection of links and info, TA. Very useful, thanks.

[Mongrel]

So, the question I'm wondering about is basically why did Assad use gas again now anyway?

Options include:

1) Assad's feeling more desperate and thought he had to use more dangerous options
2) Assad simply wanted to see if he could get away with it without it being big news or attracting attention
3) 1 & 2 combined
4) Assad was testing the waters, and deliberately wanted to see how the Trump administration would reply to such an act
5) 4, but on behalf of ~someone else~ who wanted to see how Trump would react

[Mongrel]

Oh and

So the airfield is not destroyed, only temporarily disabled until new fuel is brought in.

Yep.

[Blossom]

And for good measure:

[Mongrel]

<fmm> The US fired missiles it didn't own outright?
<Mongrel> When you fire your gun you generally have to reload it.
<Mongrel> In this case the bullets happen to cost the US government $2 million or so each.
<Monty> "It's brilliant! We just lease the missiles to the government, and at the end of five years, we get them back!"

[Büge]

According to the Washington Post, it didn't stop Assad from launching planes from that airfield later.

also

“The reason you don’t generally hit runways is that they are easy and inexpensive to quickly fix (fill in and top)!” Trump wrote on Twitter from Mar-a-Lago after playing a round at the nearby Trump International Golf Club. The president is spending the weekend here after completing a two-day summit at his winter estate with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

How much is that costing taxpayers?

[Blossom]

About $3m per weekend, apparently.

[Mongrel]

AP: Russians knew in advance about Syrian chemical attack - and may have tried to cover it up by killing the survivors

The United States has concluded Russia knew in advance of Syria's chemical weapons attack last week, a senior U.S. official said Monday.

The official said a drone operated by Russians was flying over a hospital as victims of the attack were rushing to get treatment. Hours after the drone left, a Russian-made fighter jet bombed the hospital in what American officials believe was an attempt to cover up the usage of chemical weapons.

[Yoji]

I can't find the video, but I think I saw that second conventional strike happen on Maddow. There was a Syrian activist shooting a video report in the basement of the hospital, and all of a sudden a room behind him exploded as he was filming.

If that was supposed to be a coverup, it's kind of like covering a carpet stain with a DayGlo green beanbag chair.