Arizona is a blasted hellscape

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Mongrel
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Mongrel » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:34 pm

Wonder how quick they can set up that jury trial. I'm sure Arpaio will stonewall with every trick possible, but his corner's been getting tighter and tighter for months now. he has to run out of wiggle room at some point.

Oh man, what I wouldn't give to see Arpaio in the clinker.
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:47 pm

Mongrel wrote:I'm sure Arpaio will stonewall with every trick possible


Which is how we got here, of course. I'm sure he's going to put out ads about how the feds are trying to influence the election by waiting until October to file charges, but the reason it's happening this late is that he's been stalling for years at this point.

Or maybe he'll just keep calling his opponent a wife-beater.

EDIT: yep, he's already blaming Obama.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Mongrel » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:52 pm

Well then perhaps some sort of thanks are in order...

;D
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Mongrel » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:54 pm

If he fails in his re-election bid, how does that affect his ability to stonewall?
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:56 am

That depends on how many files he shreds on his way out.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Sun Oct 16, 2016 12:20 am

Welp, got my ballot.

Lots of these are easy. I already know I'm voting against Arpaio, for legalizing marijuana, and for a minimum wage increase. There are also a bunch of muni bonds I wasn't aware of, but they all sound like things we should probably do, schools and infrastructure and stuff, so I'll read a little background but those are all tentative yeses at this point.

There's one about the high school district being able to buy and sell property and...I don't know what that's about, I'll have to look into it.

There are a bunch of Rep/Dem races, so, y'know, I'll probably do a little due diligence but mostly end up going with the Democrats. Then there are a few that are nonpartisan where I'll need to do some research, and at least one where there are two Democrats, three Republicans, and three seats, so I should probably double-check which of the three Republican nominees was least offensive (I remember I looked into all of them a couple months ago). And since my preferred candidate didn't get the nom for state rep, I should look into the two Dems and see if I prefer both of them to the Green.

(Guess I should also look into the Green who's running for Senate, seeing as it really doesn't look like Kirkpatrick's got a shot, so I may as well vote for whoever I like better.)

Judges...well, usually I just look at their ratings online, and if anybody's got a really low score I look into why.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:40 am

Y'know, a frequent criticism of the Green Party is that it focuses too much on the presidency and not enough on local races, but this year I see two down-ballot Greens and no down-ballot Libertarians.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:55 am

I looked up Gary Swing*, the Green Party nominee for Senate.

...I will be voting for Ann Kirkpatrick.





* Link is from when he ran for the House two years ago, in Colorado. That does not affect my decision.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:03 am

I looked up Isela Blanc and Athena Salman; looks like I won't be voting Green for State Rep, either. Sorry, AZ Powergirl.

I really liked Celeste Plumlee and I'm disappointed she didn't make it through the primary. (I really should have gone with the Democratic primary. Maybe from now on I'll do D in presidential election years and R in midterms?) But Blanc and Salman both seem to be well-qualified and to stand for the right stuff.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:20 am

So there are 3 seats on the corporation commission, and 5 candidates; 2 Democrats and 3 Republicans. Here's what I said about the Republicans two months ago:

Thad wrote:Corporation Commission (3 open seats) has Andy Tobin, Bob Burns, Boyd Dunn, Rick Gray, and Al Melvin on the ballot. Tobin and Burns are incumbents.

Tobin was appointed by Ducey following Susan Bitter Smith's resignation (she failed to disclose conflicts of interest when she ran). He's relatively middle-of-the-road. He was caught up in the Fiesta Bowl investigation but never charged with anything.

Burns has solid credentials; he's got a bunch of awards from right-wing organizations, which gives me pause, but he's also got an endorsement from the Republic, and for doing something laudable: pushing local utility APS to reveal how much it's contributed to political campaigns.

Tobin and Dunn have the Republic's other two endorsements. Dunn's a former mayor and judge. It sounds like he's got a decent record on energy, including methane from landfills, and he's opposed to deregulating our utilities, which is a nice sane position for a Republican Corporation Commissioner to have.


Given that, if I'm going to vote for one Republican, Dunn sounds like the best of the three. Also, it turns out that he was the most lukewarm of the three when recently asked if they'd be voting Trump, which tends to reinforce my decision.

Then again, Bob Burns does earn some credit for standing up to APS. (Though he's now in the rather strange position of being simultaneously sued by and endorsed by APS. Politics is weird.)

On the other hand, there's a school of thought that says it's better to vote for only the two Democrats and none of the Republicans, because if the race for the bottom two slots is close, then voting for any Republican means it's less likely that either of the Democrats will win. So that's something I should probably consider, too.

On the other hand, I should look into the Dems, too. Bill Mundell is a former Republican, so I'm guessing he's pretty middle-of-the-road too.

ETA: Mundell and Chabin's platform is pretty much entirely based on protesting against corruption and collusion between the Commission and the utilities it's supposed to regulate. They're speaking my language. They're also clearly implicitly endorsing Burns for the third seat, given that they praise him while criticizing Tobin and Dunn. So that's where I'm leaning now: Mundell, Chabin, Burns.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Sat Oct 22, 2016 1:48 pm

Poll: Paul Penzone leading Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio by 15 points

Ho-lee shit.

I'm skeptical when I hear news this good, so here's where I scroll down to the part criticizing the methodology:

Arpaio campaign spokesman Chad Willems cast doubt on the quality of the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News survey.

He said it included too many Democrats and too few independents and did not require respondents to have participated in past elections.

Eric Hedberg, the pollster for the survey, said all respondents reported they were likely to vote Nov. 8. Their answers were weighted to reflect the demographic breakdown of registered Maricopa County voters, he added.

Willems released a poll commissioned by Arpaio's campaign, which he said better reflected anticipated partisan turnout. That poll indicated the sheriff was leading Penzone 49.5 percent to 42.0 percent.

The campaign's poll conducted by Conquest Communications reached 400 likely general election voters who voted in at least two of the past three general elections. It was conducted from Oct. 16-18 and included a 30 percent sample of cellphones. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 points.


On the one hand, obviously I'm inclined to be skeptical of any poll that was paid for by a candidate.

On the other, there's legitimate debate on methodology for choosing "likely voters"; Silver had a good piece on the subject the other day.

The AZ Republic's survey defines "likely voters" as anybody who says they're a likely voter. The Conquest poll defines it as people who usually vote.

The latter is, typically, a much stronger method for actually determining who's a likely voter, but "typically" went out the window a long time ago for this election. It is very likely that we're going to see an unprecedented number of people who didn't vote in two of the last three elections voting in this one. Especially Latinos. And Arpaio's probably the only guy on the ballot who'll get fewer Latino votes than Trump.

Twenty-three points is a hell of a gap between two polls, though. The Republic's usually pretty good and I don't know anything about Conquest. I'm a little more inclined to believe the Republic poll, but realistically I think the final tally's going to be a lot closer.

The big question is, if Arizona does go as blue as it looks like it will this year -- Clinton, Penzone, marijuana, minimum wage -- will it be sustainable? Are the demographic changes this election going to last long-term, or will things revert to mean in two and four years?

Obviously I hope for the former.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:45 am

Still working through the ol' ballot; looking at judges tonight.

From the Arizona Daily Independent: Arizona Judicial Performance Review Finds Judges Do Not Meet Standards

The Arizona Commission on Judicial Performance Review met on June 24, 2016 to vote on whether judges meet judicial performance standards. Two judges, Pima County Superior Court Judge Carmine Cornelio and Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Jo Lynn Gentry received the highest number of “Does Not Meet Standards” votes.

[...]

In 2010 and 2013 Cornelio was censured by the Arizona Supreme Court. According to Tucson News Now:

An attorney in a January 2012 settlement conference involving possible exposure to toxic mold complained to the Arizona Commission on Judicial Conduct that Cornelio made inappropriate comments that cause the 19-year-old plaintiff to cry.

The second complaint was filed over Cornelio’s conduct in a series of settlement conferences from May 2011 to March 2012 for a Cochise County case involving the sale of family property.

Cornelio allegedly used profanity, told a client her attorney was incompetent and threatened parties if they failed to reach an agreement.


Aside from Gentry and Cornelio, the only other judge to receive more than one "does not meet standards" vote was Joan Wagener, with 6. Five others received 1 "does not meet standards"; all the rest received unanimous support.

Gentry's on my ballot; Cornelio and Wagener aren't. (Cornelio appears to have already resigned; not sure about Wagener.)

The article doesn't explain why Gentry got so many negative votes, but commenters note that she's the judge who rejected the county attorney's attempt to keep Prop 205 (marijuana legalization) off the ballot. If that's why she's getting marked down, then that sure sounds like it's a reason to vote to keep her, not to remove her; I'll have to do a bit more research.

ETA: There is a detailed table of her overall scores, which doesn't really make the reasons for the negative votes clear. And here's an article about her rejection of the challenge to 205.

...which is dated seven weeks after the ADI article I linked about her "does not meet standards" score. So I'm gonna have to go with "no, that's not why."

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:14 am

Hey, I wrote a blog post. About how it's nine days before the fucking election and I still can't find good information on what's wrong with Gentry or who I should vote for for school board.

I just remembered I've got an old high school buddy who is now a high school teacher. I haven't talked to him in a few years but I've still got his number; I should text him and see if he can tell me anything about the school stuff.

(My wife's a teacher too, but not high school. And my grandparents are teachers, but they're retired; usually I ask them to put some feelers out among their old contacts, but they haven't given me anything yet this year.)

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Joxam » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:39 pm

Thad, is your state really trying to penalize charities that move refugees to AZ 1000 dollars A DAY for every refugee they move? I can't link the article on mobile but its in the Arizona Daily Star.
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:11 am

Apparently so.

Here it is: GOP lawmakers want to penalize charities that help resettle refugees in Arizona

Whether or not it makes it through...fuck, hard to say. Fining religious charities is usually not a popular move. But these are crazy times, and this is a crazy legislature.

If I had to guess? It'll probably pass in a watered-down-but-still-terrible form. They'll probably strip out the parts about fining charities but pass something that says the state won't comply with federal refugee resettlement programs.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Mongrel » Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:37 am

TPM: GOP Rep. Trent Franks (AZ): Bales Of Marijuana Concealing Nukes Can Cross Border

comments wrote:long gone are the days of dressing up a nuke in a trenchcoat and hat and driving it across the boarder riding shotgun

no dumbass, you dress up the nuke then put it in the passenger seat so you get HOV lane access
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:05 pm

Sheriff Penzone (suck it, autocomplete; the word "Joe" is no longer the appropriate choice to follow "sheriff" with) is shutting down Tent City.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Mazian » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:41 pm

McCain diagnosed with brain cancer; survival rates for that form make it very unlikely he'll last out his term.

Brain cancer is very near the top of my personal list of horrifying ways to die. All else aside, I wish him the best.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby TA » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:22 pm

Don't worry, he's going to get the very best. He's going to get millions of dollars of taxpayer-subsidized healthcare at the Mayo Clinic to prop the poisonous shitstain up as long as possible.
のほも is such a good word?? the concept is kind of hard to fully get across in translation, but basically it means a feeling of pure, deep, platonic affection, and i think thats beautiful

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:28 pm

Classy as always, TA. Classy as always.

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