Oh shit, what are we gonna do now?

[Thad]

Well, yes, but between this, the leaks, the repeated court takedowns of immigration policy, and everything else that's happened, I think "not in control" in general is a fair summation. He's still got a lot more power than I would like him to, but it's a lot less power than he could have.

We've still got serious problems here. One is, how much damage can the government cause by simply doing nothing? Quite a lot, when it comes to things like the environment, the federal budget, and international treaties. Another is, what about situations where the Republicans are a united front (say, Gorsuch's confirmation)? And another is, even if the courts keep smacking down Trump's executive orders as unconstitutional, how much damage can they do in the meantime? A lot of people were hurt in the first couple of days of the immigration ban, before the Ban-Hammer came down.

And, of course, hovering over all of it is something that's got nothing to do with government business: the continuing legitimization of the alt-right.

The good news is, I think defeats like this harm Trump's influence. It's true that he's got a diehard core of supporters who will never leave him, but he's also got a lot of people who were reluctant about him going in and who haven't gotten any less so. There's already a wedge between the alt-right and the Republican mainstream, and failures like this drive that wedge in harder. As hard as it is to believe, there are people who saw all the crazy shit Trump did last year, voted for him anyway, but are watching this and thinking "Man, this guy's an embarrassment."

Course, it could be that once Gorsuch is confirmed they'll forget all about the AHCA, shake hands, and take a victory lap.

:politicsisweird:

[Mothra]

Via NPR:

White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, who reportedly tried to play hardball with the roughly 40 hard-line conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus, who were largely responsible for the bill's defeat.

"I don't give a s*** what you guys think," Bannon reportedly told them, per CNN, in a meeting Thursday before the bill went down.

"Guys, look, this is not a discussion," Bannon said, per Axios. "This is not a debate. You have no choice but to vote for this bill."

Trump himself showed a level of impetuousness with the Freedom Caucus and a lack of policy understanding that eventually did him in.

"Forget about that little s***," Trump told the group Thursday, per Politico. "Let's focus on the big picture here."

HAHAHAHA

[Büge]

Arkansas lawmakers are literally trying to make it illegal to be transgender.

The third bill is HB 1894, which was voted down by a committee in early March, but was reintroduced by Representative Mickey Gates.
It would ban trans people from changing the gender marker on their birth certificate.

[Mongrel]

[Thad]

[Grath]

[Yoji]

"We can tolerate all the other horrible shit, but don't touch our Internet." I feel like I've heard this story before.

[Mongrel]

There's been speculation about this from major news sources for a few days now, but word is out that Flynn has offered to testify in exchange for immunity.

Hopefully we find out which of the four options is true:

1. He's got something really hot and really needs that immunity.
2. He's got nothing, but he also thinks they'll get him on some minor fraud or something.
3. He's got something good, there's nothing on him, but he knows only the first couple people to cop a plea will get immunity.
4. He's got nothing, there's also nothing on him, but he doesn't want to take the chance.

EDIT: IIRC, I think it's already been established that they have him on some perjury charges or something else related to working for a foreign power without disclosure (his recent retroactive registration as such was a key part of the speculation that he was going to fold). So I guess not "nothing".

[Thad]

Trump is pushing for primary challenges against the Freedom Caucus and oh I am so conflicted.

[Mongrel]

Ahahahahahaha

[Caithness]

What is there to be conflicted about? Who wins the showdown?

[Thad]

Yes.

Because throwing out the Tea Party in favor of less obstructionist Republicans who are willing to compromise and build consensus is not only a good thing, it's the exact reason I've been voting in Republican primaries these last couple elections.

Except that we're having this conversation in the context of Trump crying that the Freedom Caucus took down Ryan's awful, awful healthcare bill, and he wants to elect Republicans who would have voted for it, and who wouldn't obstruct the Trump agenda in general. That is not a good thing.

On balance, I guess I've got to come down on the side of "kick out the Tea Party and bring in some people who are willing to compromise", and hope that winds up meaning something different from what Trump thinks it does. After all, while the Freedom Caucus was key in resisting the AHCA, moderates were squeamish about it too, and it's possible that it would have gone down even if the Freedom Caucus hadn't actively blocked it.

[Brantly B.]

Also, the Freedom Caucus obstructed Ryan's bill because it wasn't awful enough.

[Friday]

Except that we're having this conversation in the context of Trump crying that the Freedom Caucus took down Ryan's awful, awful healthcare bill, and he wants to elect Republicans who would have voted for it, and who wouldn't obstruct the Trump agenda in general. That is not a good thing.

On balance, I guess I've got to come down on the side of "kick out the Tea Party and bring in some people who are willing to compromise", and hope that winds up meaning something different from what Trump thinks it does. After all, while the Freedom Caucus was key in resisting the AHCA, moderates were squeamish about it too, and it's possible that it would have gone down even if the Freedom Caucus hadn't actively blocked it.

Also, the Freedom Caucus obstructed Ryan's bill because it wasn't awful enough.

Yeah, I'm with you guys here. While occasionally monsters might be on your side (for the wrong reasons) that is not a reason to have monsters.

I guess what I'm saying is having good (or at least better) people who occasionally do the wrong thing is better than bad people who occasionally do the right thing for bad reasons.

[Thad]

On the other hand, the thought of Trump with the same kind of Republican unity that Bush had is abjectly terrifying.

[Romosome]

Yeah I'm sure the entire party is just gonna line up to follow him now that he's threatening the elections of anyone who dares oppose him

This will not backfire at all

[Romosome]

Oh hey looks like the answer to Flynn's request for immunity is "no"

[Mongrel]

Oh hey looks like the answer to Flynn's request for immunity is "no"

1. He's got something really hot and really needs that immunity.

Guess we can cross that one off the list!

[Thad]

Yeah I'm sure the entire party is just gonna line up to follow him now that he's threatening the elections of anyone who dares oppose him

This will not backfire at all

Fair, but (1) the AHCA really had nothing to do with Trump; he supported it because he needed a win, but it was all Ryan and the House GOP leadership. Standing up to those guys to spite Trump doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.

(Not that I necessarily expect the AHCA specifically to come back -- as I mentioned, it may have had too much resistance from the center anyway -- but there will certainly be other terrible Ryan bills with at least token support from Trump.)

And (2) the rest of the Republicans are fucking sick of the HFC too; don't expect them to shed any tears if the intractable shits who've been sandbagging them for the past six years get a taste of their own medicine. Don't forget that what Trump is advocating here are the exact tactics that got the Tea Party into office in the first place. If you got into office because you ran against an establishment Republican in a primary, and now you're mad because the President says he wants an establishment Republican to run against you in a primary, I wouldn't count on getting a hell of a lot of sympathy from establishment Republicans.

[Mongrel]

He wanted to be president so bad.

He just had... absolutely no idea what that actually meant.