GOP Will Shit Itself

[Crick]

Even in Iowa, surprisingly, 12 out 13 people running for school boards on behalf of Moms of Liberty mega lost. If you knew this place, you'd be astounded.

[Thad]

yeah both of us have talked about this before, but I am really curious if Silver is just going to throw up his hands and go "okay you know my data is all based on precedent, right" next year

Silver's going to do what he always does: do three articles, a "case for why things will go like the model says" article, a "case for why the Republicans will overperform" article, and a "case for why the Democrats will overperform" article. That last one will be the one that talks about how his model is biased by historical precedent and is unprepared for the current circumstances and why recent midterm, off-year, and special elections might be better predictors of the outcome.

My prediction is based on a small sample size but is consistent with historical precedent.

[Thad]

(This also assumes Silver still has a job by this time next year. The way things are going I think ABC is most likely going to shut down FiveThirtyEight, but I'm skeptical they'll do it in an election year.)

[Thad]

Opinion: Having rights still bewilderingly popular

When confronted with questions such as “What should be in my library? Books, or just empty shelves and a scowling member of Moms for Liberty standing with folded arms and hissing whenever anyone dares approach?” people overwhelmingly selected the first thing. When they were given a choice between Deciding and Having Things Decided For Them, Deciding proved surprisingly popular.

[Thad]

MAGA-dominated state Republican parties plagued by infighting, money woes

In January, Jeff DeWit was elected Arizona state GOP chairman as a consensus choice who could bridge the party’s internal divisions between pro-Trump, election-denying activists and more-traditional conservatives, given his record of winning a statewide race in 2014 for treasurer and his early support of Trump’s first presidential run. He inherited a party in disarray from the previous chair, Kelli Ward, a MAGA firebrand who led efforts to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss in the state and has since decamped to a boat in the Caribbean.

DeWit has repeatedly asked national Republican groups for financial support that largely has not come. His appeals to the RNC began in February and have extended through mid-September, including to national and regional staffers and directly to RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, according to people familiar with the discussions, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose private conversations.

“He would just ask people, ‘When does money start cycling in?’” said one GOP operative familiar with some of DeWit’s requests.

McDaniel and RNC staff met privately with DeWit, at his request, at the RNC’s meeting in Oklahoma City in late April. According to a person familiar with the conversation, DeWit told her, “‘We desperately need to keep the lights on.’” DeWit said they were in debt because of legal bills related to putting forward alternate electors falsely claiming Trump won the 2020 election.

Multiple state parties have asked McDaniel and the RNC for money for 2020-related legal bills, according to people familiar with the matter.

McDaniel encouraged him to draft a plan detailing needs and goals, and said the party was not paying legal bills.

I'm not going to get complacent. But things are not working out great for the fascists right now, and I take some comfort in that heading toward next year's elections.

[Mongrel]

Santos expulsion vote on Friday. Looks like they have the votes for it this time.

[Thad]

Eeyup. Expulsion vote succeeds, despite Johnson and some of the GOP leadership trying to circle the wagons at the last minute.

311 for expulsion, 114 against, 2 present.

Roll call. The "present" votes were Al Green (D-TX) and Jonathan Jackson (D-IL). Two Democratic "Nay" votes, Bobby Scott (VA) and Nikema Williams (GA).

[Mongrel]

Sad to see them do that to a Nobel Laureate, but oh well, needs must.

[KingRoyal]

the craziest part is "I got kicked out of Congress for lying too much" is the kind of thing he'd make up

[Thad]

McCarthy's retiring.

By the end of the month; won't even serve out the rest of his term.

[Thad]

Also: I think there's a significant chance that when the dust clears on this, there's a vote to expel Matt Gaetz from Congress.

House Ethics Committee requests interview with witness in Gaetz probe

I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen. I'm just saying if I were Speaker of the House I'd be looking for ways to get rid of the guy who led the ouster of the last Speaker of the House.

[Mongrel]

Man, I don't think I've seen such a good Bushism in years.

[Crick]

When will we solve mental health and get it off our streets

[Mongrel]

The Mike Johnson Ouster Countdown Begins

House Republicans have “significant concerns” about whether Johnson—the least experienced speaker in 140 years—is “in over his head.” At least one Republican claimed Johnson is “getting rolled even more than [ousted former Speaker Kevin] McCarthy did.”

[Büge]

[Mongrel]

I think it says something about how far gone the GOP is that if literally just a half dozen or so R Congresscritters decided they wanted to live like lords and kings for the rest of their lives, they could pair up with the Dems to elect a new speaker from their ranks and more or less dictate legislation all year, but that no one can find even that many R's whose personal greed exceeds their Trump zealotry (or fear).

EDIT: Shit, it would literally only have to be 4 people.

Anyway, if someone wants to try and tell you there are some less bad or "good" Republicans, give 'em that number.

[Mongrel]

I'm far from the first person to observe this, but, damn, MTG sure has a FASCINATINGLY LARGE number of naked photos of Hunter Biden!

[Upthorn]

I still read "MTG" as "Magic: The Gathering" at all times and in all contexts.

[Mongrel]

Well, given WotC these days, I expect they too have a large collection of naked Hunter Biden pics.

[Niku]

Shut the fuck up, do you want to get sued for leaking the new set?