GOP Will Shit Itself

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Thad
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Thad » Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:05 am

The Democrats have a real opportunity here, to treat sexual assault allegations differently than the GOP, but so far they're blowing it and inviting more "both sides are the same" cynicism. (Obviously what Franken and Conyers are accused of is not the same as what Moore is accused of; I don't mean to downplay the difference in severity. But what Franken and Conyers did is enough to warrant expulsion, and instead most Democrats are hemming and hawing and circling the wagons, and aside from being ethically wrong that's just bad strategy, because it makes them look like hypocrites when they criticize Republicans for shielding predators.)

There are exceptions. Jayapal has called for Conyers to resign. But so far she's a lone voice.

Part of the reason the Democrats are timid on this is, there are more. There have to be. If they expel Conyers and Franken, more names are going to come out.

My feeling is, aside from the ethics -- which, again, boil down to "get rid of the sexual harassers" -- this is poor strategy. They should just assume at this point that, sooner or later -- and very probably sooner -- all those names are going to come out, all the allegations are going to become public. The best thing they can do is get it out in the open and deal with it now. Let the public see the Republicans as the party of nazis and child molesters, and the Democrats as the party that won't tolerate sexual misconduct.

But I'm afraid that's not going to happen.

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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby pacobird » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:51 pm

Yeah, I'm not surprised the actual party doesn't want to oust Franken and Conyers (and Conyers is probably untouchable in general) but I expected more from liberals who had me convinced these past few weeks that we were actually going to start taking sexual harassment and abuse seriously only to give a pass to harassers who aren't, in the grand scheme of things, complete fucking nobodies.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:05 pm

Apparently the CBC is meeting with Conyers today to convince him to resign, and Pelosi's supporting them, but I dunno how well that'll work out.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby pacobird » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:45 pm

A lesser sidebar issue is that if Conyers is taken down because of a leaked confidential settlement, we need to see every single one of them.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby TA » Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:47 pm

I suspect that they know that if they bend on Franken and Conyers, they're gonna have to address the elephant in the room that is Clinton.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:47 pm

Clinton's easy enough to dodge: They can change their position while saying he was already put on trial, so can't be tried for his behaviour. As long as Hillary's not being invited back, they can let it all just fade away. To make it clear, I'm not talking about what's morally right or wrong, just the tactics they will probably use.

Meanwhile, Pelosi has just called on Conyers to resign
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:50 pm

Also, some people have been looking directly at the question of how much it's hurting Doug Jones to not kick out Franken or Conyers, and the depressing answer is "Not much".



Or, as this guy put it rather bluntly (and deservedly):



However, as bleak as that sounds, I DO continue to think that Franken, Conyers, etc. CAN still hurt the dems very much - in the 2018 midterms, as those are national. In which case as long as they're gone in the next couple weeks (preferably BEFORE 2018), the Dems can recover and claim moral... something... I dunno.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Thad » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:10 am

Mongrel wrote:Clinton's easy enough to dodge: They can change their position while saying he was already put on trial, so can't be tried for his behaviour. As long as Hillary's not being invited back, they can let it all just fade away. To make it clear, I'm not talking about what's morally right or wrong, just the tactics they will probably use.

Yeah, I think addressing Clinton is easy, because he's been out of office for 17 years. Especially for anybody who wasn't in Congress at the time. Gillibrand's all over that shit, and I think her condemnation of him is one of the shrewdest political moves I've ever seen.

I think condemning people who are currently serving in Congress, right now, is a much bigger challenge than throwing somebody who's 22 years past his last campaign under the bus. Hell, Conyers has dirt on everybody; there's a lot more risk going after him than Bill. (Though I still think it's unquestionably the right move, both ethically and strategically.)

Long-serving Democratic congresscritters aren't going to be voted out of office over Bill Clinton in 2018; most of them can probably get away with saying "I was wrong, it was a different time." As for running for President in 2020, well, Biden might have a problem given his treatment of Anita Hill a couple of decades ago, but I don't think that's the biggest thing working against a Biden nomination. If anybody asks Sanders about it, he'll do the same thing he always does, say that question is a distraction and we should be talking about Wall Street. Anybody else I can think of who's a likely Democratic contender wasn't in Congress in 1998, so they can criticize Bill Clinton with impunity. Sure, that'll mean he won't be stumping or fundraising for them, but...that's probably a bad idea anyway at this point.

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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:25 am

Thad wrote:Sure, that'll mean he won't be stumping or fundraising for them, but...that's probably a bad idea anyway at this point.


I'm not actually sure he'd have bothered for anyone other than his wife. Leaving aside the question of whatever reciprocal agreement they may have had there...
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Thad » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:04 am

Mongrel wrote:I'm not actually sure he'd have bothered for anyone other than his wife.

You mean aside from Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, and twice for Obama?

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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:44 pm

Thad wrote:
Mongrel wrote:I'm not actually sure he'd have bothered for anyone other than his wife.

You mean aside from Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, and twice for Obama?

Carter, Mondale, Dukakis is a bit silly here - I'd like to think it's obvious we're talking about post-presidency.

In any case, while he's done it in the past, it seems like he's getting old enough, and - unusually for a living former president - becoming more controversial, not less - a Clinton endorsement is not what it used to be! These might well have weighed on him. On top of that, Once you reach a certain age, that's not really expected any more - AFAIK Jimmy Carter doesn't stump for current presidential candidates and no one holds that against him.

Had Bernie won the nom, would Clinton have stumped for him? Maybe. But I doubt he'd have made more than a token effort if he bothered at all and no matter what it would have been less than he did for his wife.

The counterargument is of course that there aren't many living former Dem presidents, so maybe Bill would have gotten roped in or felt some need to support [whoever] anyway. But the overall point is that he was obviously obligated to stump for Hillary in a way no other candidate would have obliged.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Thad » Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:45 pm

Mongrel wrote:
Thad wrote:
Mongrel wrote:I'm not actually sure he'd have bothered for anyone other than his wife.

You mean aside from Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, and twice for Obama?

Carter, Mondale, Dukakis is a bit silly here - I'd like to think it's obvious we're talking about post-presidency.


If you would like to limit it to the, hang on, let me check my math, 100% of Democratic conventions he has spoken at since 2000, rather than the 100% he has spoken at since 1980, that's fine with me.

In any case, while he's done it in the past, it seems like he's getting old enough, and - unusually for a living former president - becoming more controversial, not less


Yes, Mongrel. That is the thing that we are currently talking about.

Had Bernie won the nom, would Clinton have stumped for him?


He did for Obama. Twice.

Maybe. But I doubt he'd have made more than a token effort if he bothered at all and no matter what it would have been less than he did for his wife.

One would assume that his support of ANY other candidate would be less than for his wife, even considering who we're talking about.

He spoke at the 2000 convention, and that's a campaign where the nominee consistently and deliberately distanced himself from him. (Which I still think was terrible strategy at the time, but is absolutely the right strategic move today, not just the right ethical one.)

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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:13 pm

Speaking at the convention isn't really going out on the campaign trail. Sure a vote of support is nice, but we're not talking about whether Clinton would have given a vote of support to [generic Democrat]; of course he would have.

Since you agree his support of anyone other than Hillary would have at least been some degree less, this is just being pedantic about something there was no need to be pedantic about. :thad:
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Newbie » Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:58 am

Setting aside for the moment whether it's a foregone conclusion at this point that the Senate tax bill is going to pass, there are still opportunities to intercept it from being implemented even if the vote succeeds, right?
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Newbie » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:57 am

....and it passed, 51 to 49.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Rico » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:24 am

Newbie wrote:Setting aside for the moment whether it's a foregone conclusion at this point that the Senate tax bill is going to pass, there are still opportunities to intercept it from being implemented even if the vote succeeds, right?

Right, because of the amendments it will need to be reconciled with the House version of the bill.

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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:27 am

Well, the House sure won't stop it - will the Senate have to vote on it a second time, post-reconciliation? That's probably the only chance.
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Thad » Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:10 pm



It depends.

The House can just pass the Senate bill as-is, in which case it doesn't need to pass the Senate a second time.

There is a chance that the process will break down and the House will add some changes that peel off 2 more Senate votes. I wouldn't bet on it, but if the bill does end up being changed and sent back to the Senate, well, that's when we're gonna wanna start calling our senators again.

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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Grath » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:25 pm


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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself

Postby Mongrel » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:37 pm

Oh my god that's brilliant.
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