"Unrest In the Middle East" - a valid headline for over 2000 years.

[Mongrel]

Whoa, shit is heating up, not cooling down.

[Mongrel]

Iran deploys female special forces to quell anti-government protests - Elite commando unit dispatched for first time after unprecedented demonstrations broke out over Mahsa Amini death

As the images in the article and videos elsewhere show, there are a LOT of men at these protests, probably a majority. It's good that this is going to be couched in nominally anti-clerical, anti-extremist, pro-feminist terms, but at the same time, this really is just the last 20-30 years of shitshow government boiling over.

Unfortunately, it's not like the Quds are going to brook any challenge to their power, but as the military side of the equation they might use this as an excuse to take over as a fully military government and toss out the clerics with whom they're always in something of a power struggle with. I guess the regular army could reassert itself somehow, but there's nothing to indicate that's possible, let alone likely.

[atog]

It appears that some have not forgotten that ole time (Persian) religion

[Mongrel]

Well, Zoroastrianism does involve keeping an eternal flame lit... that's a lot easier if everything is on fire, right?

Anyway

[Thad]

As the images in the article and videos elsewhere show, there are a LOT of men at these protests, probably a majority. It's good that this is going to be couched in nominally anti-clerical, anti-extremist, pro-feminist terms, but at the same time, this really is just the last 20-30 years of shitshow government boiling over.

There have also been rumors, for weeks at least, that Khamanei's health is declining. He appeared in public a week ago, so reports that he was on his deathbed appear to have been exaggerated, but he's 83 years old and I'm sure rumors of his declining health are part of the reason Iranians feel like the balance of power is shifting.

[Grath]

[Grath]

Seems like we're gonna be seeing a lot more unrest in the middle east in the short term, and then probably a new regime in Iran.

[Mongrel]

Maybe...

There's a lot of confusion and various power struggles going on. Various players - hardline clerics, more moderate (relatively) clerics, Rev Guard/Qoms dorks, the Presidential faction, the security bureaucracy etc. - are contradicting each other and a lot of official sources are downplaying or just blatantly lying about protest-related deaths (including hacking murdered protesters' telegram profiles to try and pretend it was "suicide" in spite of widespread video evidence), which is understandably enraging protesters and causing scenes like the above video. It's a very, very old cycle, especially in the mideast: Protest > deaths > scum disrespect/ruin funerals for/lie about the dead, elevating them to martyrs, which fuels further protests, repeat.

Khameni himself is ill (there was talk that he was even incapacitated) and not doing much, though he did appear in public two days ago.

The real question is if any change in regime will actually bring about any benefit for average Iranians.

[Thad]

The real question is if any change in regime will actually bring about any benefit for average Iranians.

It always is.

[Mongrel]

So, both a lot and nothing has been going on in Iran.

The protests continue - and are back on the upswing, actually - after a minor lull. The regime can't crack down because various elements of the government are still struggling for power and both with each other and internally, and also can't decide whether to side with the protesters or smash them. The protests are also increasingly trending younger. Not that older folks have stopped participating, but younger ones are really embracing it wholeheartedly (and of course Iran is one of those countries which trends younger rather than older, demographically).

The protesters are being incredibly creative in accessing social media and networking plans with each other in spite of all sorts of emergency barriers up to and including total internet access shutdowns in some parts of the country (and broad swathes of it even in places it hasn't been shut off entirely). The latest coordinated protest is a "See how YOU like it!" wave of knocking off clerics' turbans.



It may seem childish, but remember that Iranian women have been putting up with almost identical shit (and much worse) from these exact guys since the 80's. IMO, its right that for a change people are yanking the "SHAME! SHAME!" bell out of their hands and ringing it right back in their own faces.

[Büge]

Iranian parliament votes to impose the death penalty on all protesters in custody as a "hard lesson" for all rebels.

There are approximately 15,000 protesters in custody.

[Mongrel]

It's unclear that this will happen however - they're also terrified of the protests which have been broad-based and sustained in spite of the crackdowns. More importantly, infighting both within and without the various power factions, including clerics, continues, as they struggle to figure out whether or not to pander to the protests or crush them. That paralysis has been ongoing for weeks now.

In practical terms, the security forces have been stretched beyond their limits and the Revolutionary Guard is asking Russia for help with countering protesters (help which Russia is in position to give them).

I'm not saying this isn't bad, and the probability of them killing at least some imprisoned protesters is (and was) very high regardless (and indeed is probably happening on a smaller scale through beatings, etc.), but for now at least this is far more bark than bite.

[Silversong]

I was wondering if there's any hope that the people would just...refuse to carry out executions? I guess if they call in Russia to execute their people that gets even more messy, but I can certainly imagine a world where the humans with the executing-people jobs just think this is too far.

And when the people with guns decide not to use them, then you can really get a revolution going.

[Grath]

I guess if they call in Russia to execute their people that gets even more messy

What, so Russia can lose again, this time to imprisoned protesters who have probably been being tortured?

[Mongrel]

Among other ongoing protests, a huge mob of Iranian protesters just burned down Ayatollah Khomeini's house (which has been a museum to him for 30 years).

[Mongrel]

Hardliners may be gaining something of an upper hand in the power struggle in Iran (very unclear as this is only one facet), as they forced the resignation of the head of the security council who was waffling.

The Revolutionary Guard ground forces are currently attacking town in regions which have been especially prominent in protests, such as those with a majority of Kurds, Baluchis, Azerbaijanis, etc. with heavy weapons, including armoured vehicles, heavy machine guns fired directly into houses, and artillery.

Reports conflict about the regular security services, with some claims that morale is very low and that they are exhausted. Regardless, the Revolutionary guard seem to be taking over from them directly, or trying to.

:/ :(

[Mongrel]

Anyone else following along with the current Israeli saga?

The defence minister (who is very much on Bibi's side) resigned yesterday because he couldn't guarantee the IDF senior leadership would follow his orders. As a result Bibi has put the destruction of the Israeli judiciary on hold but also just announced blackshirts.

As worrying as that is, there's no idea if works or becomes a joke. This is what happens in the somewhat odd situation whereby a nation's most hardline ideological fascists actually shun and refuse military service.

It's all horrifying of course, and there's many ways this could still all end up going very badly, but the increasing volume of protests (on the weekend, 3% of the entire population of the country was on the streets actively protesting) means a pause might not even be enough to stop the momentum to get Bibi out. It would be pretty funny if the Jenga tower of Israeli right-wing politics collapsed because one grotesquely corrupt motherfucker just could not stop trying to burn the state to the ground with his never-ending attempts to stay out of jail.

[Grath]

I'm hearing rumors of "general strike that's approved and supported by the business owners", which I'm not an expert but that sounds like Bibi might be out of power shortly.

[Mongrel]

There's certainly something on. The Israeli embassy in Ottawa has shut down because the ambassadors are on strike. Ben-Guiron Airport has entirely shut down as well due to a strike (and possibly all air traffic in or out? That's not confirmed yet).

[Mongrel]

17 days short of election day in Turkey, Erdogan appears to have, at the very least, fallen seriously ill.

- On Tuesday night, Erdogan cut a TV interview; his campaign staff stated it was an "upset stomach".
- All Erdogan's events were cancelled for today, and now they've announced tomorrows events as well.
- Erdogan's wife and family were told to go to the hospital where he is - or was - being treated.

Unclear at this time if dying would reduce or improve his chances in the election.