Election 2020 - Here we go again

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:24 pm

Yeah, Kanye wearing the MAGA hat was literally the first thing I thought of.
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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:43 pm

I don't know if it's a stunt so much as a man in a manic phase who doesn't understand how anything works and has never been told "no" in his adult life, but ultimately the motivation doesn't make any difference to the result.

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Mazian
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mazian » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:31 am

We have determined that those are electable traits.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:48 pm

Sure, for a candidate who's actually on the ballot.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:23 pm

Trump's misreading the map, looking for Electoral College votes in some of the wrong places

Ad spending isn't everything (just ask President Bloomberg), but this at least suggests that the Biden campaign has a better grip on what the electoral map currently looks like than the Trump campaign, or than the Clinton campaign did four years ago.

If I had to guess why the Trump campaign is dumping money into Georgia, I'd say it's because Trump saw a Fox News poll showing Biden up two points in Georgia. But I have a hard time picturing an outcome where Georgia even comes close to blue without Florida going blue, and I have a hard time picturing an outcome where Biden wins Florida but loses the election (and, references to the 2000 election aside, if Georgia's teetering on the brink then we're not looking at a Gore-sized margin in Florida, we're looking at a margin that's going to be a lot harder to dispute).

There's still time for things to change and Trump to pull off another upset. I think Biden's benefiting a lot from standing back and letting Trump repeatedly shoot himself in the dick; once Biden starts having to actually say and do things, the campaign is going to start getting harder for him. But I also still think that the likeliest path to a Trump victory this time is massive voter disenfranchisement; he can still win, but I suspect any path to victory involves a lot more cheating than 2016.

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Upthorn
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Upthorn » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:23 pm

Blossom wrote:No, it wouldn't.


He's missed the cutoff date for almost every state, anyway. This is a stunt.

I found this really reassuring, until a friend actually looked up the dates.

According to https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Independent_candidate_ballot_access_requirements.2C_2020, he's only missed Indiana, North Carolina, and Texas.
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:31 am

Fair point. It's pretty clear he's not going to make any of the 7/16 deadlines either; that includes Florida and Michigan.

The requirements for ballot access in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are pretty modest; I can see that being a source of concern if the election is close. Trump's margin in both those states was lower than the number of votes Stein got.

Then again, it's not entirely clear who the "I would vote for Biden, but I'm voting for Kanye instead" demographic is. I get people voting Green because they don't want to vote for Biden; that's something I can understand. Voting for Kanye sounds more like the sort of thing people do when they don't actually have a coherent political ideology, they just vote anti-establishment. (Think Nader-Paul-Sanders-Trump voters. They exist, but I don't think there are very many of them.) Those people were never going to vote for Biden and really shouldn't be considered "lost votes"; even in the hypothetical case where they end up voting Kanye West, if he hadn't been running they'd have probably gone Libertarian.

Kanye's got a megaphone; he can get attention. But even assuming he means this seriously, and even if he manages to keep up the organization and dedication to see it through to getting on the ballot in some swing states and continue campaigning through to election day (and those are all pretty big ifs), I'm still not sure that's going to translate into very many votes. I'd be surprised to see him get 1% of the vote. Insofar as he eats into any other candidates' votes, I suspect he'll be getting more from people who would have otherwise voted Green or Libertarian than anyone who would have voted Democratic.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby mharr » Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:30 pm

It makes sense as a genuine accelerationist choice. Pity he can't get into the race really, splitting that vote a little would have been nice.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:00 pm


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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:45 pm

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:55 pm

It's pretty rare to have someone act like that out of nowhere. Not impossible, sometimes people do go off the deep end, but most of the time people's behavior is informed by previous behavior.

It reminds me of that article from the 40s where the author confessed to playing the "would this person be a Nazi?" game at parties.
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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:06 pm

Yeah, I was already guessing that from the petty way they were obsessing over a community path that runs near but not on their specific property, as described in the original articles. Surprise, surprise...

But it's interesting to learn which particular flavour of asshole they turned out to be! In this case, litigious as fuck and obsessed about land.

Also, whoops, I meant to post this in the protest thread! Since there's already a reply. Could one of the mods kindly move the posts over? Thanks!
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Destynova » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:45 pm

If West actually gets on the ballot, then we better get Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho in there as well. 'The idiot who WON'T burn down the world' might be the best we can hope for.

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Grath
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Grath » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:53 am

Mongrel wrote:Yeah, I was already guessing that from the petty way they were obsessing over a community path that runs near but not on their specific property, as described in the original articles. Surprise, surprise...

But it's interesting to learn which particular flavour of asshole they turned out to be! In this case, litigious as fuck and obsessed about land.

Also, whoops, I meant to post this in the protest thread! Since there's already a reply. Could one of the mods kindly move the posts over? Thanks!

Bonus points: Even if the protesters were ON their property, Missouri's castle doctrine only applies inside your house.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:59 pm

Talk of Duckworth for VP now. I think she'd be a good choice but there's also the minor issue that it's unclear whether she's eligible; she was born in Thailand. Paco went over what exactly this means when we were talking about Cruz in '16; tl;dr existing precedent seems to imply that if you're not born on US soil then you're not eligible for the presidency, but Paco also notes it's unlikely to be litigated due to standing. (And of course the Republicans didn't have any problem nominating a guy who was born in Panama in '08, but obviously hypocrisy isn't going to preclude Republicans from making an issue of something.)

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Upthorn » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:16 pm

How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:23 pm

Georgia has already had its primary, so the decision on who will replace John Lewis on the ballot was made by the state Democratic Party's executive committee. They've chosen party chair Nikema Williams. I'm not familiar with her but the main detail I keep seeing in her bio is that she was arrested for protesting the 2018 gubernatorial election, which is a good sign.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:47 am

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Metal Slime
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Metal Slime » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:15 am



If he did somehow manage to delay which he can't he would automatically get kicked out of office along with his administration in January and since there'd be no House you'd get.... President Chuck Grassley (R).

Edit: Forgot the Senate would be wiped too of Rs since they are more up for seats this year. So most likely a Democrat president pulled from the senate.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Metal Slime » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:48 am


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