Election 2020 - Here we go again

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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:44 pm

While it's not out of the question that we could see a VP pick in the next few weeks, it would be very unusual.

2016*: Pence announced July 15; Republican convention July 18-21. Kaine announced July 22; Democratic convention July 25-28.
2012: Ryan announced August 11; Republican convention August 27-30. Biden incumbent; Democratic convention September 3-6.
2008: Biden announced August 23; Democratic convention August 25-28. Palin announced August 29, Republican convention September 1-4.
2004: Edwards announced July 6; Democratic convention July 26-29. Cheney incumbent; Republican convention August 30-September 2.
2000: Cheney announced July 25; Republican convention July 31-August 3. Lieberman announced August 7, Democratic convention August 14-17.
1996: Kemp announced August 10; Republican convention August 12-15. Gore incumbent; Democratic convention August 26-29.
1992: Gore announced July 9; Democratic convention July 13-16. Quayle incumbent; Republican convention August 17-20.

* also Ted Cruz did some weird shit where he declared on April 27 that Carly Fiorina would be his running-mate if he won the nomination.

In a nutshell: the VP candidate is typically announced right before the convention. The Democratic convention is scheduled for August 17-20.

There's nothing that says you have to announce your running-mate right before the convention, but generally it's a big announcement that gets you a lot of press and you don't want to do it too early. I can certainly think of reasons why Biden would want to announce now -- it would knock certain other headlines with his name in them off the top of Google News -- but it's a trick he'd only get to do once.

It's worth noting that his announcements up to this point have largely been the conventional and predictable types -- endorsements by previous nominees and his former opponents for the nomination.

There's a lot of VP speculation right now, because that's what the press does when they can't speculate about who's going to be the nominee anymore. But that doesn't mean that a VP announcement is imminent. I wouldn't expect to hear a running-mate announcement before August, and I really wouldn't expect one before July. It's not impossible, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Brentai » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:49 pm

I think the main reason you'd want to do it is to allay fears that you might actually pick Clinton.

Unless you're actually going to pick Clinton, in which case you want to do it early to give a third party candidate time to spin up a viable campaign. You can never be too sure you won't accidentally win.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:12 pm

Brentai wrote:I think the main reason you'd want to do it is to allay fears that you might actually pick Clinton.

...is anybody really treating that like it's a serious possibility? Because it sounds like one of those things where people mistake things people are saying on Twitter for things people are saying in general.

I opened Google News (in a private browsing window to try and decrease whatever targeting they're sending my way) and did a search for biden vp. Here are the first few articles:

A black woman is 'not a must' for Biden's running mate, Clyburn says

Clinton's endorsement appears in a video on the page, but her name does not appear in the article. Names that appear as possible running-mates are Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris, Susan Rice, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Catherine Cortez-Masto, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Val Demings, and Gretchen Whitmer.

Stacey Abrams on sexual assault allegation against former VP: 'I believe Joe Biden'

Not directly about the VP race, but the reason they're asking Abrams is that she's considered a top contender.

Harris Ripped Biden on Race. As VP Contender, She Hails Him.

This one's about Harris, as the title implies.

The Top 10 women Joe Biden might pick as vice president (I'm not linking a Chris Cillizza article; fuck that guy)

If you were to tell me somebody in the mainstream media had floated Hillary Clinton as a likely running-mate for Biden, my first guess would be Chris Cillizza. She isn't on his list (10: Stacey Abrams; 9: Tammy Baldwin; 8: Tammy Duckworth and Jesus he's just free-associating here isn't he; 7: Gretchen Whitmer; 6: Keisha Lance Bottoms; 5: Elizabeth Warren; 4: Susan Rice; 3: Catherine Cortez Masto; 2: Amy Klobuchar; 1: Kamala Harris).

Biden’s Choice for Vice President: What Matters Most?

This one's a "letters to the editor" page. There are three letters; nobody says Hillary Clinton. Same names we've seen before: Harris, Abrams, Warren, Klobuchar, and Rice.

The creative thinker who should be Biden's vice president

Abrams. It's Abrams.

Biden says he expects VP selection panel to be formed by May 1

No mention of Clinton. Same names we've seen before. Klobuchar, Warren, Whitmer, Harris, Abrams, Cortez Masto.

Vice President Michelle Obama?

Not only is this another fucking Cillizza article, it's the exact one that led me to my rant the other day about how he is a worthless hack who writes insipid clickbait. And even he's not writing articles about how it's going to be Hillary Clinton. (At least not yet.)

It’s Time For Another 2020 Vice Presidential Draft

Clinton is mentioned a couple of times as a former candidate who just endorsed Biden, but is not floated as a potential running-mate, in a chat where people just spitball potential running-mates.

And if I do a search for clinton biden vp, it turns up a bunch of articles about her endorsement.

In conclusion: I have seen people float Clinton as a possible pick for Biden's running-mate in exactly one place: this thread. I'm sure there are people indulging in similar speculation elsewhere on the Internet, but I haven't seen it, the mainstream press doesn't seem to be pushing it (not even dipshits like Cillizza), and it seems absurd on its face. There are certainly some fears that Biden is going to have to allay in the coming weeks and months, but I really don't think "he's going to pick Clinton as his running-mate" is one of them.

Has anyone ever picked the loser of the previous election as a running-mate?

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby beatbandito » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:12 pm

Well if there's one thing democrats never do it's make unexpectedly terrible choices.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:16 am

I mean I have no doubt that Biden is going to make a bunch of really stupid choices over the course of the next six months. I just have some significant doubts that he's going to make that specific really stupid choice.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:52 am

lol Cliclizza

I think that at this point a lot of people just expect the Democrats to do whatever is the weakest, stupidest, worst possible thing to do. That's the confidence they have in a party that pulled every string they had and some they didn't to secure the presidential nomination for arguably the second-worst candidate they could field against probably the worst President to date. Having them add on the worst as VP just feels... fitting.

Like, hope for the best, but expect the worst (and even "best" is pretty shit at the moment).
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:14 am

Mongrel wrote:I think that at this point a lot of people just expect the Democrats to do whatever is the weakest, stupidest, worst possible thing to do. That's the confidence they have in a party that pulled every string they had and some they didn't to secure the presidential nomination for arguably the second-worst candidate they could field against probably the worst President to date. Having them add on the worst as VP just feels... fitting.


I really don't see any evidence that "a lot of people" expect Biden to pick Hillary Clinton as his running-mate.

Again, there's a difference between "the Democrats are going to do something stupid and self-destructive" and "the Democrats are going to do this specific stupid and self-destructive thing."

Mongrel wrote:Like, hope for the best, but expect the worst (and even "best" is pretty shit at the moment).

I like Stacey Abrams. That "I believe Joe Biden" headline makes me wince, but her stances on healthcare, criminal justice reform, and voting rights are solid. I'd feel a lot better about voting for Biden if Abrams were on the bottom of the ticket. (Same goes for Warren. Not so much for Harris or Klobuchar. I don't know enough about the other names being floated to have an opinion on them yet.)

I'm still inclined to think Harris is the likeliest pick. Given that Klobuchar is one of the names people are floating, I don't think I'd consider Harris "the worst possible" choice, but she's pretty fucking far from ideal.

Not for nothin', the VP pick is especially important this year because, if Joe makes good on his claim that he won't run for a second term, whoever he picks becomes the likeliest nominee for 2024 (assuming he wins; VP picks don't have as good a track record getting the nomination after they lose; just ask Presidents Lieberman and Edwards). The VP choice isn't just about who can run things under a president who's old and increasingly incapacitated (HW Bush-style), though that's part of it and that's important; it's also about the direction of the party in the years to come. Best we can hope for under Biden is a return to the status quo, which beats what we've got now but is still, as you say, pretty shit. But the implications of VP Abrams are very, very different from the implications of VP Klobuchar.

I don't hold out a lot of hope that he'll pick Abrams or Warren or another progressive as his running-mate. I think that whoever his choice is, it's probably something I'm going to be pretty unhappy with, albeit not as unhappy as I am with Biden himself.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:16 pm

Thad wrote:I really don't see any evidence that "a lot of people" expect Biden to pick Hillary Clinton as his running-mate.


I wouldn't venture a percentage or anything, and it could easily be a small, vocal, minority, but it's a comment I've seen pretty much universally anywhere I've been online. On dozens of forums, on in-game chats around the world. Whether it's a howl sort of cynical despair from the left or mockery from the right.

To be fair, I doubt it's really serious claim from any of those people, and that when pressed a lot if not all may say "well, okay, he'll probably pick someone different. probably" (which is what I'd say too). It's just that emotionally that's where people are at, that that's the sentiment they're expressing, because if there's one thing Joe Biden doesn't offer much of, it's hope.

Biden is a desperation candidate and I think that at least is something you'd see wide agreement on.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Fri May 01, 2020 1:01 am

Mongrel wrote:I wouldn't venture a percentage or anything, and it could easily be a small, vocal, minority, but it's a comment I've seen pretty much universally anywhere I've been online.


So okay. Here's the thing. I've spent two posts, and probably an hour or so of my time, doing research and providing numbers and citations to thoroughly explain why your expectations for the VP selection are off-base. And you're still on "well, a lot of people are saying..."

So at this point I'm just gonna link to the Wikipedia entry on selection bias , note that yesterday I had to explain to you that vice presidential nominees are not typically announced in April, and pointedly ask if you can think of anyone who says things like "a lot of people are saying" and how it sounds when he says it.

Mongrel wrote:To be fair, I doubt it's really serious claim from any of those people, and that when pressed a lot if not all may say "well, okay, he'll probably pick someone different. probably" (which is what I'd say too). It's just that emotionally that's where people are at, that that's the sentiment they're expressing, because if there's one thing Joe Biden doesn't offer much of, it's hope.

Biden is a desperation candidate and I think that at least is something you'd see wide agreement on.


Okay but that's really not the message I got out of "oh my god are they really gonna do it" and "If they really do it (might still be some kind of fake-out), it will quite literally open up the greatest chance for a third-party president in the history of the republic" and "Well, I didn't see a VP announcement in the international news this morning, so I assume the Biden campaign is still dangling that bait."

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Brentai » Fri May 01, 2020 1:39 am

This isn't worth getting nasty about.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby beatbandito » Fri May 01, 2020 10:53 am

Hey Thad, here's the very first result for "Clinton VP" on Google. It's three months old and the first line is:

"A number of people in politics, the media and elsewhere are openly speculating that if Democrats wind up with a “brokered convention,” with no strong or viable nominee evident, Hillary Clinton might enter the arena as the “savior” who could unite the delegates and go on to defeat President Donald Trump."


I can't choose which of your many posts on this page that are directly saying "that's just not a thing people are saying at all except maybe in your bubble" would be best to quote here, so instead I'll just ask that you step out of your bubble for a minute before being a pedantic asshole to people. Because if you're unable to type "Clinton VP" into google, and instead will take a lot more time than that to tell people those things aren't being said, you're a pedantic asshole.

I imagine now you'll make a long post about how obviously those things are out there but they're not serious or coming from the right sources, like a pedantic asshole would, before making another post about how nothing that's being said or shown is meaningful now because things are so crazy and tend to change.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Büge » Fri May 01, 2020 11:00 pm

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Thu May 07, 2020 2:39 pm



EDIT: In case the original tweet gets deleted, the contents were/are a post from a Trump campaign manager:
For nearly three years we have been building a juggernaut campaign (Death Star). It is firing on all cylinders. Data, Digital, TV, Political, Surrogates, Coalitions, etc.

In a few days we start pressing FIRE for the first time.

...complete with Death Star firing .gif
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Mon May 18, 2020 1:59 pm

Are Older Voters Turning Away From Trump?

All the usual polling caveats apply, but Biden is currently leading Trump by 1 point among voters 65 and over (compared to Trump's 13.3-point margin of victory over Clinton in the same demographic), and 1.4 points among voters aged 45-64 (compared to Trump's 4-point margin of victory over Clinton in the same demographic).

Now, the election is still five and a half months out and those numbers could be completely different in November; remember how unpopular Trump was even among Republicans at this point in 2016. But even if he doesn't really end up doing 14 points worse among voters 65 and over than he did in '016, even a few points worse could still cost him the election.

I can't muster enthusiasm for a Biden victory. But I'd sure be pleased with a Trump defeat.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Brentai » Mon May 18, 2020 3:51 pm

Trump first, then Biden. We can do this for as long as it takes.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Mon May 18, 2020 4:41 pm

Brentai wrote:We can do this for as long as it takes.

I'm increasingly concerned that's not the case.

Aside from the obvious threat of environmental devastation -- the place I'm sitting right now may become uninhabitable within my lifetime, and that's not an exaggeration -- our current crisis has exposed just how fundamentally incompatible the last forty years of American economic policy are with basic human dignity. And while I'm sure we'll be better under Biden than under Trump, I don't see a best-case scenario where we come out of this any better prepared for the next crisis than we were at the end of Obama's last term. "Hope the next once-in-a-century pandemic really does take a century to come around" isn't a strategy. And in the meantime, how long's it been since we had a once-in-a-century hurricane, a once-in-a-century tsunami, a once-in-a-century earthquake? Never mind once-in-a-century heatwaves; there's no such thing anymore.

I think what we need is the most radical overhaul of the social safety net since at least the 1960s and possibly the 1940s. If I'm being honest I don't think Sanders or Warren could have pulled that off, given the makeup of Congress. But at least they would have tried. I don't think Biden will try.

And while I think demographic trends all but guarantee an eventual return to FDR-style economic policy, I'm very concerned about how much damage will be done in the meantime, and how much of that will be irrecoverable.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Mon May 18, 2020 4:51 pm

Thad basically sums up my feelings, fears, and hopes for the future.

I mean, I've said as much many times before! The future is bright! I firmly believe this. It's just, uh, making it there. Which sort of precludes a bright future.

And yeah. If Trump is a knife causing a bleeding wound as he drags himself closer and closer through the chest toward the heart, and Warren was a band-aid, Biden is just putting down the knife and watching the blood come out while he says "don't worry, this will scab eventually."
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Thu May 21, 2020 2:37 pm

Politico: Warren drops M4A in ongoing attempt to angle to be Bidens VP

The even dumber thing is that she probably has no chance in the first place, as Joe's handlers probably had her down on the "No fucking way" list back when she was still a candidate.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Thu May 21, 2020 3:22 pm

I'd still rather see her on the ticket than just about any other choice I can see him making.

Also,

Alex Thompson wrote:Warren’s policy-centered, team-player pitch is counting on Biden caring more about Jan. 20 than Nov. 3, when he makes his vice presidential pick.


that's some truly terrible comma placement.

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