Election 2020 - Here we go again

KingRoyal
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby KingRoyal » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:23 pm

I don't think so. That still doesn't change the fact that 17 years out and Democrats have fielded two candidates in a row who were not only fully on board with what George W. Bush was doing, they actively helped him carry out his agenda.

At the end of the day, I swore after 2004 I wasn't voting for a Democrat who voted for the Iraq War. And here we are again.

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:35 pm

I think the question you're both trying to get at is "What is the likelihood that the current leadership of the Democratic party will be replaced by more progressive individuals, and if so, how soon?"
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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:45 pm

KingRoyal wrote:I don't think so. That still doesn't change the fact that 17 years out and Democrats have fielded two candidates in a row who were not only fully on board with what George W. Bush was doing, they actively helped him carry out his agenda.

That's not the part of the statement I said was misleading.

Mongrel wrote:I think the question you're both trying to get at is "What is the likelihood that the current leadership of the Democratic party will be replaced by more progressive individuals, and is so, how soon?"

That's part of it, though I'd add "How much are we going to be able to drag the party leadership, kicking and screaming, into doing?" as an important component too.

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Friday
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:11 pm

One of the biggest problems is just they're fucking old.

They lived in a different time. They still think, by and large, that it's 1993 or even 1983.
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KingRoyal
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby KingRoyal » Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:13 pm

That's probably where I significantly differ. Having see how aggressively the Democratic leadership actively resisted the Sanders wing of the party, while openly embracing Mike Bloomberg parachuting in to fuck shit up, I don't think the party leadership will ever be moved. I have never see the Dems actively be that aggressive, manipulative and, above all, political as they had the last four years against the left-wing. Then they all turn around and praise the shit out of George W. Bush.

Whatever Dems might say they feel about progressive legislation, their words and actions and this point have shown them to be strong opponents of it. And since leadership are the ones who actually control the purse and the levers of power, they're under no obligation to listen to a wing of the party that has no other options.

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:22 pm

KingRoyal wrote:That's probably where I significantly differ. Having see how aggressively the Democratic leadership actively resisted the Sanders wing of the party, while openly embracing Mike Bloomberg parachuting in to fuck shit up, I don't think the party leadership will ever be moved. I have never see the Dems actively be that aggressive, manipulative and, above all, political as they had the last four years against the left-wing. Then they all turn around and praise the shit out of George W. Bush.

Whatever Dems might say they feel about progressive legislation, their words and actions and this point have shown them to be strong opponents of it. And since leadership are the ones who actually control the purse and the levers of power, they're under no obligation to listen to a wing of the party that has no other options.

I agree, but I also think the possibility of the leadership being grassroots ousted is a real possibility based in real demographics.

Some of that is old folks dying, some is potential aggressive primarying establishment Dems a la AOC. And yes, I know they've specifically passed anti-AOC party bylaws, but if the tide's high enough, they're going to get flooded out.

Though, yes, that tide is going to need to be very high.

I also think that someone with Bernie's cred but more charisma (not that Bernie didn't have any - he's still extremely likable - but he wasn't what I'd call magnetic) and more importantly someone a lot younger and quicker on the draw has the possibility to pick up where Bernie left off.

I know a leader isn't a movement even if one sometimes seems like a shortcut (it's how you get populists of any stripe, after all). But we knew this was Bernie's last shot, that Bernie losing this season meant the end of him. Whereas a big gun who'll continue to be around and potentially only grow in stature would pose a more effective and lasting threat to the DNC (especially if they learn from Bernie's mistakes and also start pushing support towards strong leftist downticket candidates so that they're not so alone).
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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:06 pm

Mongrel wrote:
KingRoyal wrote:That's probably where I significantly differ. Having see how aggressively the Democratic leadership actively resisted the Sanders wing of the party, while openly embracing Mike Bloomberg parachuting in to fuck shit up, I don't think the party leadership will ever be moved. I have never see the Dems actively be that aggressive, manipulative and, above all, political as they had the last four years against the left-wing. Then they all turn around and praise the shit out of George W. Bush.

Whatever Dems might say they feel about progressive legislation, their words and actions and this point have shown them to be strong opponents of it. And since leadership are the ones who actually control the purse and the levers of power, they're under no obligation to listen to a wing of the party that has no other options.

I agree, but I also think the possibility of the leadership being grassroots ousted is a real possibility based in real demographics.

Some of that is old folks dying


Yeah, that's part of it. Pelosi is 80, Biden is 77, Schumer is a young fella of 69. It's true that you get guys like Ted Stevens (voted out at 85), Robert Byrd (died in office at 92), or Strom fucking Thurmond (retired at 100), but there are pretty decent odds we won't be looking at re-electing Pelosi and Biden four years from now, let alone eight. Schumer...we're probably stuck with him for awhile, unfortunately.

I'm not saying that younger senators are automatically better; Sanders is 78, Wyden is 71, and, as I pointed out the other day, the two youngest people in the Senate are noted worthless human beings Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley. But I am saying that the current leadership is on its way out just by virtue of age.

That doesn't rule out that whoever comes in after them will be cut from the same cloth. But neither does it guarantee it.

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:45 pm

Yeah, it can go both ways.

Like the youngest person in the Dem primaries was a freakish semi-human only a tick or two off of ending up with a "Zodiac Killer"-style meme attached to him (which may yet happen now that he's got such a higher profile).

But then, all but one member of that field were people playing to the current Dem leadership and playbook, not ones fighting it. I guess we'll see what happens in 2024 with respects to that. But in the meantime, there's other work to do.
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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:22 pm

Mongrel wrote:Like the youngest person in the Dem primaries was a freakish semi-human only a tick or two off of ending up with a "Zodiac Killer"-style meme attached to him (which may yet happen now that he's got such a higher profile).

I don't know that Mayor Pete's ever going to be more than a cautionary tale about the media's obsession with the Iowa Caucuses. I wouldn't be surprised to see a House or Senate seat in his future, but I don't know that he'll ever really be a big wheel in the party.

If you want to look at a candidate who was a flavor-of-the-month in the 2020 primaries, has a much more progressive reputation than her actual record, and stands a good chance of holding a major position in the party leadership in the coming years, I still think Harris is the one to keep an eye on.

I also think you're going to be hearing a lot about Kyrsten Sinema in the coming years, and a lot of it won't be good. Remember when Arizona had a senator who became one of the most important and influential figures in American politics by virtue of occasionally and very visibly sandbagging his own party and voting with the opposition? She does. If the Democrats get a slim Senate majority, she's going to have a lot of power in shaping policy, and we're not going to like the result.

If there are a couple of things I can say in her defense: one is that she's a pretty good representation of the median Arizona voter. I don't think she's conservative because of any convictions of her own; I think she's conservative because that's what it took to get elected and it's what it'll take to get re-elected. I don't like it very much, but I understand it -- and the upside is, it also suggests that if Arizona is moving to the left, then she will too.

I also suspect that, while we've already seen her willingness to take some execrable positions on police/military/border patrol, I don't think she's likely to vote with Republicans on restricting reproductive rights or LGBT rights.

All that to say: yeah, there are some pretty conservative Democrats among the younger set, too, and at least some of them look like they're going to be pretty influential in the coming years. I still think the future of the party is going to be a move to the left, but there are definitely going to be some obstacles and it's not at all as simple as just getting rid of the olds.

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:33 pm

Yeah, Pete's biggest enemy is his own mouth.

He can't say anything that doesn't sound like it came out of a robot whose normal job is to process mayonnaise.
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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:40 pm

And of course it bears remembering that, for all the problems I think we're going to have from Sinema in the coming years, those problems are a direct result of Arizona electing a Democratic senator for the first time in 30 years. And there's a good chance that five months from now, we'll elect the second one.

I do think the electorate is moving to the left, but that's also a lumpy and uneven process, and moving to the left means very different things in different places. Sinema's got plenty of flaws, and Kelly does too, but they still represent very clear progress from the likes of McCain, Flake, and Kyl.

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Büge
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Büge » Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:16 pm

Friday wrote:One of the biggest problems is just they're fucking old.

They lived in a different time. They still think, by and large, that it's 1993 or even 1983.


Not just age, but enfranchisement. Nancy Pelosi and her husband have a net worth of $120 million, with stakes in Amazon and Facebook. Joe Biden has a net worth of $9 million in real estate and other assets. They're businesspeople. They, and other establishment Democrats like them, have no reason to change a system that they benefit so disproportionately from.
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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:42 pm

You know, there's a meme right now about rich folks fleeing Covid by retreating to their private yachts or islands (which IS a thing that's happening).

Has anyone mentioned this to pirates?
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Friday
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:17 pm

An Open Letter to Pirates:

Dear Pirates:

I know you're probably busy robbing oil tankers off the coast of Somalia or whatever, but have you considered robbing a bunch of rich assholes?

I mean, other rich assholes who don't own oil.

Regards,
--Friday
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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:51 pm

A few pretty good 538 articles on recent polls and how to interpret them:

How To Read Polls In 2020
Biden Has A Historically Large Lead Over Trump, But It Could Disappear
Why Biden’s Polling Lead Is Different From Clinton’s In 2016

Polls are a generally-pretty-accurate snapshot of public opinion at a moment in time. If the numbers look like this on November 2, then it's unlikely Trump gets a second term, even with all the voter suppression that's likely to happen between COVID-19 and Republican dirty pool. (Note that the polling average leading into the 2016 election, that led so many people to conclude Clinton was a shoo-in -- and mock 538 for saying there was still about a 30% chance it would be Trump -- had Clinton up by 3.6 points. Biden is currently up by 9.6.)

But of course today is not November 2, and just because the polls are looking good for Biden right now (and a lot better than they were for Clinton at this time four years ago) doesn't mean that's going to hold. A lot of shit's still going to happen in the next four months, and a lot of it's going to involve Biden saying stupid shit and the press piling on him for it while giving Trump a pass for saying even stupider shit. And remember how wild October '16 was; we had the Access Hollywood tape and the Comey Letter within a couple of weeks of each other. There's still a very good chance that lead narrows and we wind up going into the election with the popular vote within the margin of error, again.

We'll see. I think it's probably going to end up being close. But I'd like to see Trump thrown out on his ass by an unambiguous, irrefutably large margin.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:52 pm

More relevant info on interpreting polls:

Voter Registrations Are Way, Way Down During The Pandemic

Reliable polls survey likely voters (which is a subset of registered voters), so while decreased voter registration is a bad thing on principle, it won't make those numbers any less reliable. A more relevant question about the reliability of polls during the pandemic is whether the assumptions of what constitutes a "likely voter" still hold. I think there's a very good chance that people who consider themselves likely voters, and who have never had any trouble voting in the past, are going to have trouble voting in November.

I've been saying for years that voter registration should be automatic and anyone should be able to vote by mail for any reason. This situation shines a real spotlight on those issues and I hope it leads to change.

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:17 pm

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:44 pm

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mharr
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby mharr » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:22 pm

The weirdest part of this timeline is how that would probably be an improvement.

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Blossom
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Blossom » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:15 pm

No, it wouldn't.


He's missed the cutoff date for almost every state, anyway. This is a stunt.
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