Impeachment

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:29 pm

His testimony wasn't as good as Zappa's, but I love how he opened it by asking Al Gore if he was a big fan of his music, too.

User avatar
Büge
Posts: 3708
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:56 pm

Re: Impeachment

Postby Büge » Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:56 pm

Image

McDohl
Posts: 199
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 12:45 am

Re: Impeachment

Postby McDohl » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:33 am


User avatar
Mongrel
Posts: 14811
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:28 pm
Location: Canadumb

Re: Impeachment

Postby Mongrel » Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:04 pm

Image

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:11 am

Giuliani associate wants to testify that Nunes aides hid Ukraine meetings on Biden dirt from Schiff

As in any case where a crook starts naming names to try and get a reduced sentence,this isn't necessarily reliable in and of itself; the thing to watch for is whether he's got any evidence that can corroborate his claims.

On the other hand, haha, fuck you, Nunes.

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:54 am

Only two articles of impeachment, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. All focused on the Ukraine incident, nothing about Russia.

I'm pretty frustrated that they've decided on this route, but it's better than nothing.

McDohl
Posts: 199
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 12:45 am

Re: Impeachment

Postby McDohl » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:03 pm

To be honest, it's probably got the best chance of sticking, and this whole thing started at "snowball's chance in Hell".

User avatar
Friday
Posts: 4170
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:40 pm
Location: A user of Sosuns

Re: Impeachment

Postby Friday » Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:59 pm

They should do as much as possible because it's got zero chance of sticking. The point wasn't to get it to stick, that's impossible because of the Senate. The point was to outline for history and the American people how insanely fucked up Trump was/is, officially, forever.

Or, well. I mean, that should have been the point.
ImageImageImage

User avatar
Brentai
Woah Dangsaurus
Posts: 2997
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Impeachment

Postby Brentai » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:03 am

If that's the case then it'd be inappropriate for the DNC to downplay their complacency with it.
Image

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:16 am

Purportedly McConnell wants to rush through the trial in 2 weeks but Trump wants to drag it out and turn it into a circus and try to call Crab Juice, Hunter Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Bob Schiff, the whistleblower, and God only knows who else.

I think Trump trying to turn it into a circus is likely to backfire and hurt his popularity in an election year. But my track record at this point is bad enough that I wouldn't put money on any of my guesses on how people will react to Trump's idiocy.

User avatar
Friday
Posts: 4170
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:40 pm
Location: A user of Sosuns

Re: Impeachment

Postby Friday » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:39 am

Right, that's the other point. To try to get the swing voters to vote against Trump. Or at least not for him.

I think the impeachment will achieve that to a degree, but the nation is pretty polarized. I think it's worth it in any case.
ImageImageImage

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:42 am

McConnell and White House counsel agree to coordinate impeachment trial plans

On the one hand, yes, that's a fucking outrage; you're not supposed to coordinate a trial with the defendant.

On the other, I still think that the Senate conducting the impeachment trial the way Trump wants them to may well be the very worst thing they can do for him.

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:20 pm

Revisiting what I said in the Jernalism thread in October:

Thad wrote:
Brentai wrote:Or in other words, it's slowed because practically everybody who's ever going to be for it is for it.


No, if that were true, it wouldn't still be growing.

538's aggregate tracker shows that support for impeachment has gone up three points in the past week. While that *is* slower than ten points in a single day, it's still pretty goddamn fast. (By way of comparison, the average growth in support for impeaching Nixon for the first six months was about three points a *month*.)

Currently polls are showing about 59% support for the impeachment inquiry and 49% support for impeachment. That indicates that at least 10% doesn't support impeachment yet but might be convinced as more evidence comes out.

And I say "at least" because support for the inquiry is *also* still increasing.


Support for impeachment has remained more or less static since October (though there's a certain amount of noise in 538's tracker, partially because different pollsters are asking about support for impeachment in different ways).

It's possible that Brent is right and I was too hasty in dismissing his contention that everyone has already made up their minds one way or the other and there won't be any more significant movement.

It's also possible that people simply haven't been paying attention, and once the House votes to impeach and the Senate takes up the trial, we'll see the numbers start to shift again.

To that end, I think the Republicans' decision to play to the base could hurt them. McConnell is openly acknowledging that he's coordinating with the White House; Graham is out there saying outright that his mind is made up and he's not even going to pretend to be an impartial juror. This is consistent with the post-Romney Republican strategy: play hard to the base, fuck everybody else, and hope that the anti-democratic measures that favor them (the Senate, the electoral college, voter suppression, gerrymandering) will be enough to get them across the finish line against the wishes of the majority. It's worked for them before, but it's a risky damn strategy when fully half of all voters don't just dislike Trump but believe he's committed actual impeachable crimes.

While Schumer is usually worthless, he's made the right move in releasing a list of witnesses he wants to call. If McConnell refuses to call material witnesses like Bolton, that reinforces the (already obvious) perception that the Republicans care more about partisan ass-covering than the truth.

All that and there's still the looming threat of an economic downturn, and as I've said before, if that happens then Trump truly is toast. While there's an unshakeable core of supporters who will back him no matter what he does, there are also supporters who will only back him as long as they don't feel like he's personally inconveniencing them. Bush's approval rating bottomed out around 28% following the financial crisis of 2007; I suspect Trump's floor is in the same general area.

So I see three possible guesses here:

1. Support for impeachment has reached its maximum. It's never going to get any higher.

2. Support for impeachment has reached its maximum given current economic conditions. It's never going to get any higher, unless there's an economic downturn.

3. Support for impeachment has plateaued for now, but could increase depending on what happens in the coming weeks (and even months; even after the Senate acquits, more people could come to believe "you know what, they should have convicted that crook," given all the shoes that still haven't dropped, such as Trump's taxes).

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:04 pm

McConnell says he won't call witnesses. Because he is a relentless shitlord, he is justifying this by saying that's the House's job.

My view up to this point has been that the House Democrats are moving too quickly and should wait for court orders for Trumpers to testify, but I think I'm coming around to the argument that that wouldn't really make a difference. Say they wait a couple months and SCOTUS orders Mulvaney to testify. Mulvaney comes in, answers every question by asserting executive privilege, and now Democrats have to start a whole new round of litigation to determine where he's allowed to assert executive privilege and where he can be compelled to testify. Trump's team can easily bog this down in legal proceedings until after the election.

I think the Dems may be picking their best bad option in moving forward on impeachment and calling as much attention as they can to the Republicans rigging the game in Trump's favor.

(It's also technically possible that the Democrats could still call witnesses if they can get four Republicans onboard; it just takes a simple majority and McConnell can't stop it. But I wouldn't pin too much hope on that happening. It's abundantly clear at this point that we shouldn't put our faith in Manchin, let alone Romney, Collins, Murkowski, and whoever the fuck the fourth Republican is supposed to be in this hypothetical.)

And again, just because the Senate acquits doesn't mean Trump won't have some bad news coming out of the courts in the months that follow.

User avatar
Friday
Posts: 4170
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:40 pm
Location: A user of Sosuns

Re: Impeachment

Postby Friday » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:39 pm

2. Support for impeachment has reached its maximum given current economic conditions. It's never going to get any higher, unless there's an economic downturn.


This is where my money is.

I heard (what I thought was) a decent analogy to the economic situation in America: Imagine the USA is a company and each day the profits are up! And each day the CEO and CFO and the board of directors cut a little more from the wages of everyone who works there except themselves, and get richer and richer. Meanwhile the workers at the company make slightly less money every month and also rent keeps increasing.

Then a guy comes along and says "what are you complaining about? Profits are up and only keep going up!" and continues walking.

I'm not sure how good of an analogy this is re: Wall Street and everyone's intense focus on repeating THE ECONOMY IS GREAT but I feel like it's a pretty good one. Overall, the top % are making more and more money every year while everyone else gets a paycut but the total cash value is up. For this to be possible, of course, it must mean that the ultra wealthy are making absolutely DISGUSTING amounts of unspendable money, but that seems to be actually the case.
ImageImageImage

User avatar
Mongrel
Posts: 14811
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:28 pm
Location: Canadumb

Re: Impeachment

Postby Mongrel » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:06 pm

Oh they're spending it alright.

Buying politicians is good bang for your buck, as it turns out.
Image

User avatar
Brentai
Woah Dangsaurus
Posts: 2997
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Impeachment

Postby Brentai » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:28 pm

I see what the Democrats are doing, and it's lovely, but I'm not posting it here.
Image

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:51 pm

I'm still figuring #3, with the caveat that the words "could" and "depending" are holding a lot of weight.

I just saw some polls indicating that an overwhelming majority of independents think the Senate should call witnesses. If they don't, that could reinforce the public perception that the whole thing is a sham.

There are the usual factors that I don't have a lot of faith in -- news reporting and Democratic messaging -- but there's also plenty of unpredictability in Trump's tendency to self-sabotage. For all the crazy shit that's happened so far, I think there will be more crazy shit to come between now and the end of the trial.

And, as I said, beyond. The impeachment argument doesn't stop at acquittal. The Republicans acquit and the Democrats spend the rest of the election year hanging the blatant criminality of this administration around their necks.

Unless fucking Biden is the nominee and spends the next eleven months talking about how Trump is the real problem and once he's gone the Democrats and a Republicans can get back to the important business of reaching across the aisle and passing bipartisan legislation and God dammit guys please remember to vote in the primaries so he doesn't get the nomination.

User avatar
Thad
Posts: 8308
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:05 am
Location: 1611 Uranus Avenue
Contact:

Re: Impeachment

Postby Thad » Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:56 pm

Slate has a rundown of what the current Senate rules are for impeachment, and how they can be changed.

I think trying to predict what Chief Justice Roberts is going to do is a mug's game. I think people are right when they say he's concerned about his legacy and the court's reputation, but it hasn't had much of a moderating effect on his decisions.

Aside from that, even if Roberts *does* try to create the perception of impartiality and nonpartisanship, Senate Republicans can overrule him with a simple majority. And I think anyone who thinks they wouldn't is in pretty deep denial about just how in the tank they are for Trump, and how little they care about even the barest appearance of propriety. Their leader is out there openly stating that he's coordinating the proceedings with the accused, FFS.

User avatar
Z%rø
Posts: 258
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:10 pm
Location: #!%($*&@^UNKN

Re: Impeachment

Postby Z%rø » Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:15 pm



havin a normal one
Image

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest