"Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

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Upthorn
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Upthorn » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:24 pm

I regret to interrupt the useful and informative posting, but
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Friday
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:30 pm

The only upside of COVID 19 is that we will finally be able to recognize RE's high degree of realism after making fun of it for 20 years
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Brentai
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Brentai » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:36 pm

beatbandito wrote:
Upthorn wrote:I regret to interrupt the shitposting, but
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I've been going back to this every day and we have continued to follow so closely in step it is insane.


Well good thing we've about doubled on that projection since then.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:47 pm

Upthorn wrote:I regret to interrupt the useful and informative posting, but

Sharkey was saying this was a bit freaky, because he grew up on the island in the centre of that map in the background.
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Mongrel
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:11 pm

You may see this going around, and it looks bad, but bear in mind that this is very possibly just a function of rapidly increasing test availability in the US.

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beatbandito
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby beatbandito » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:21 pm

Yeah but... without tests we were in line. With tests we are massively surpassing. Unless you think almost all other countries just never had accurate numbers.
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Niku
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Niku » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:15 pm

My job just shut down for at least two weeks (with one office out of several remaining skeleton-crew open, so I may get a couple of shifts going in and working on mail/online/orders) and I have never been more thankful to have jumped from the grocery industry to local government at the end of last year than I am right now.
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Friday
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:17 pm

You may see this going around, and it looks bad, but bear in mind that this is very possibly just a function of rapidly increasing test availability in the US.


Yeah but... without tests we were in line. With tests we are massively surpassing. Unless you think almost all other countries just never had accurate numbers.


It's 100% certainly both.

We're seeing a spike because of increased testing, and we also have more cases due to late proper response.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby hngkong » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:47 pm

I've heard from two different friends who have family in the military that there is going to be a full national lockdown on Monday for at least 7 days but possibly up to 30 days. Now, it's hearsay, but these are friends I've known for most of my life and would trust them with said life. Said family members are also fairly high officers, with one being a general and the other a colonel.

On one hand, I'd say take it with a grain of salt... but on the other hand, California and New York... I've been self quarantined for 4 days (not infected, just careful), but I'm going to see about getting another box of insulin tomorrow, just in case.

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Upthorn
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Upthorn » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:12 pm

beatbandito wrote:Yeah but... without tests we were in line. With tests we are massively surpassing. Unless you think almost all other countries just never had accurate numbers.

So the thing here is, yes, we've been undertesting, so the real number of cases is definitely higher than the number of confirmed cases by a significant margin.

However, it is also very likely that the real number is growing along the same curve as the confirmed number, just with a higher/earlier starting point. So, we're going to see spiking as testing availability improves, and the number of confirmed cases converges with the true total number of cases and then a return to the same trajectory.
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Sharkey » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:00 am

Mongrel wrote:
Upthorn wrote:I regret to interrupt the useful and informative posting, but

Sharkey was saying this was a bit freaky, because he grew up on the island in the centre of that map in the background.


That's my home. Yeah, the east end of the island in the middle of that map is where I grew up. My brother still lives there. That terminal is probably more familiar than my own living room. It's fucking me up to see it as a post apocalyptic videogame prop.

I don't know. I bop around the world a lot but that's like seeing that even the Shire is fucked up.

Also back in high school I dated a vampire girl who lived on the island shaped like a pistol. I assume she was a vampire because she was way into sandman and industrial music and also because she ripped my throat out and left me to this inane unlife.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Thad » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:29 am

Sharkey wrote:even the Shire is fucked up.

And whose fault is that, Sharkey?

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Grath » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:36 am

It's likely that this is a matter of testing catching up to reality - New York has dramatically increased testing (Cuomo claims that NY is testing more people per capita than South Korea as of today) and is currently responsible for just under half of the US's confirmed cases; it's unlikely that New York is that much worse than other areas (although confirmed patient #2 did go to large religious services while sick, and those people then went to other large gatherings...)

Back-solving from the death rate/lag in mortality observed in China and South Korea after further testing has been possible, given the severe lack of testing capacity (intentionally caused by Trump in an attempt minimize the impact on his re-election) it's likely that at this point millions of Americans are infected (estimate 3-4.5 million - probably on the lower end since the numbers used to estimate 4.5m are from when less testing was being done.)

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Mongrel
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:11 am

"Cuomo says a lot of things, baby."

(some of them may even be true)
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Niku » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:20 am

lmao my dad was probably exposed by one of his employees

not even a week ago he told me he threatened to fire one of his employees because he wanted to take time off

karma owns
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Mongrel
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:31 pm



I'd like to think this isn't as bad as it seems because if hospitals were to actually close their doors right now, how likely is it that the public would stand for any of their elected leaders throwing up their hands saying "Oh well, that's the market for you!"? Still, any interruption and reorg/nationalization would be a delay.

Also, if you missed it, Bernie's roundtable had a restaurant worker advocate on who said that 4 million restaurant workers have lost their jobs or are at risk of losing their jobs and that that's going to push 9 million soon.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:48 pm

In a very small, separate note, I'm just really happy to see Ignaz Semmelweis recognized by a (multi-day!) Google doodle.

Starr told me about his particularly tragic story - a literal martyr for both medicine and the scientific method - which is now taught in medical schools all over as a belated vindication, and which is how I learned about it. But it's extremely satisfying to see him get worldwide public recognition outside the medical community.
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Upthorn
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Upthorn » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:05 pm



How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Mongrel
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:50 pm



Also in Italy, deaths fell to 650 today from 800 yesterday... so... potentially good news?
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:13 pm


Apparently before announcing this, he first sat down to have lunch... with all the other Republican senators.
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