"Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:22 pm

Zara if you're worried that not enough Americans are going to die, you'll be happy to know that COVID is starting to ramp up in the rural states, and California's peak isn't projected until July.

In general, the public seems to think that this is "the worst week" for COVID in the US. For New York, probably, yes.

The public wants this to be over. They want to have "ridden it out" over two weeks a month or two. That is not how pandemics work. This does not end until herd immunity. Herd immunity happens at 29–74%, current data. (It's super wide because we just don't know shit about COVID. Measles, the worst contagious disease ever, requires a 92-95% immunity to contain.)

So this ends at an unknown point of time when one of two things happens:

1. 29–74% of people have been infected and recovered. Dead people do not count toward this 29–74%.

2. A vaccine artificially creates that 29–74% herd immunity.

Let's go with the low end.

29% of the US population is roughly (working from 350mil pop)

101,500,000.

Current total infected (confirmed) 495,802.

If you assume maybe triple total cases based on confirmed cases, that's 1.5 million out of 101 million needed to get the LOW END of the magic herd immunity number.

So if I was to say we're at about 1-2% of total deaths/infections in the US before this is over barring a vaccine, I could very well be correct. If you say there's ten times as many cases total as there are confirmed cases (which isn't unreasonable) then we're about 5% of the way.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:10 pm

Alright, let's talk about the reality of what "social distancing" achieves.

We've all seen these graphs. I remade them because I hadn't seen them specifically illustrated to make this point exactly.

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Without social distancing. Medical system is overloaded, mortality rate of disease jumps from 2-3% to something like 8-10%.

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With social distancing. Medical system is stressed but can handle it. Mortality rate stays at baseline.

The thing I want to draw your attention to is this: Look at the long orange tail on the second graph. It's thicker, yes?

We're in that first scary bump. But there will be smaller bumps afterward as restrictions are relaxed and not only that but the overall rate of infection remains higher the whole time (even between bumps) then just "getting it over with" as eco-worshippers want to do. Those people are still dying at a 2-3% rate. It just happens over a longer period of time.

Absolutely less people total die in the second graph. But flattening the curve does not reduce the total number of infections. It only delays them. In fact, some models predict it actually INCREASES the total number of infections compared to no measures taken. (you still get far less deaths, though.)

What I'm trying to say is this. We are still very early into this. Do not fool yourself for a moment that we're "mostly over" people dying.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:34 pm

Yeah, this is going to be on basically all year.

This is what 2020 is.

Which, mercifully, at least SOME government figures recognize.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:40 pm

I realized I may have managed to obfuscate my point of the graphs and those two posts, so:

If 10,000 people die in a month, and 70,000 die in the rest of the year, the month is the worst month in the year but is only 1/8th the total deaths.

What I'm saying is Zara needn't worry just because this month isn't killing as many as he might like. Way, way more will die, just over time.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:57 pm

Thad (et al), more info on mask re-use tests:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... espirator/
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby beatbandito » Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:36 pm

Friday wrote:In general, the public seems to think that this is "the worst week" for COVID in the US. For New York, probably, yes.

If New York is lucky it is.

Cuomo's "great response" that I keep hearing about from people that don't live in New York seems to include declaring us at / just past the peak because the number of new hospitalizations has plateaud and is ready to start looking to "open up" in early May.

In other words: because the number of just cases that require emergency care has reached a point where the day-to-day growth is no longer exponential, two weeks after the first real shelter order, we're ready to cancel that shelter order.

In other other words: we're continuing to refuse even glancing in Italy's directionfor some insight into how things will continue to play out.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby zaratustra » Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:02 pm

Friday wrote:Zara if you're worried that not enough Americans are going to die


i did come off as a huge dick huh

sorry


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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:38 pm

*nods*

Some of use remember that that's been the story as long as Cuomo's been in the news. Also him ignoring most of DeBlasio's desperate pleas for help.

There's a reason those DNC trial balloons are so fucking nauseating.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:49 pm

i did come off as a huge dick huh

sorry


Don't worry, I don't think you actually want people to die. You were just hoping for the collateral damage to hit Trump so that he loses the election. I get it, I hope that too. It's like, if people are going to die because of his incompetence and malicious actions (and they are) then at least he should fucking pay for it in November.

Which, he might. I don't fucking know. Nobody does. As I have stated many times now, COVID has thrown the world into CHAOS MODE as far as reliable predictions about future events.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:51 am

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Thad » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:27 pm

IBM scrambles to find or train more COBOL programmers to help states

I find this kind of shit fascinating.

There are a handful of really old programming languages that have mostly gone away but still have niche use-cases. FORTRAN is still used in scientific research, because it's fucking fast. LISP is, as far as I know, still pretty widely used in AI research, because functional programming is well-suited for certain branches of AI. And if you're in the business of moving a lot of small green pieces of paper around, odds are pretty good that you've got COBOL or RPG code running on IBM mainframes. (I work for an insurance company. The development team is made up almost entirely of RPG programmers. I'm one of two programmers who don't do RPG. We're hoping to get that number back up to three at some point.)

This is one of those cases where the comments are worth reading. There are a few loudmouths in there wondering why anyone is still using COBOL and haven't switched over to something more modern, but there are also a lot of knowledgeable people in there relating their own experience and explaining clearly why COBOL is still the language of choice for this type of work.

The trouble is, very few people are picking up COBOL these days, IBM has spent the past few decades outsourcing whatever jobs it can, so where there are people learning COBOL, it's not usually in the US, and now all of a sudden we've got some huge, sweeping changes in how unemployment insurance works and not enough programmers to implement them across 50 states and various other jurisdictions.

My grandpa was a COBOL dev. He didn't talk much about anything besides college football and the weather; it was a rare occasion that he'd talk about his life. But one time, when I was working on my degree in compsci, he asked me about programming. He asked if anyone still used COBOL. (He'd heard of FORTRAN but not C, so that'll tell you how old his frame of reference was. '50s, '60s, maybe early '70s; punch cards. He worked for the power company.) I told him it wasn't common, but yeah, some people still do.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Joxam » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:37 pm

I don't know if any of you are using pick-up ordering and stuff during the quarantine but I worked the department all day Sunday and I'd just like to let everyone know that if you don't order at least some food in a Wal Mart Pick-up order you still have to go inside to pick it up. However, if your order is a grocery order you can just sit in your car and they will load it for you and everything.

ALSO: YMMV obviously but my store (and the one my sister works at) are sanitizing every single shopping cart every single time they come back into the store if you do need to go in to shop.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:59 pm

Yeah, every grocery store up here appears to have someone (often multiple staff) on cart-sanitation duty at the door.

The biggest annoyance about grocery shopping now is washing/sanitizing it all when you bring it home. It's not like it's that much extra work, but it's sure tiring somehow.

Though it helps to remember that for things like crackers, cereal, etc, you can just toss the box and keep the internal bags if you're going to use it soon, so at least you don't have to deal with soggy boxes (most recommendations I've seen state that paper surfaces can only hold the virus for three days or so, so if you're NOT going to use it right away and have safe storage, you can just leave that stuff there for a couple days... funny enough, it's metal and plastic surfaces which seem to hold it much longer).
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:23 pm

"Florida Man Becomes Governor of Florida"

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:24 pm

Of course, haha funny joke, it coincidentally turns out that Linda McMahon's going to drop $19 million into a SuperPAC to support Trump's reelection in Florida.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:32 pm

look at the big brain on michelle

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Büge » Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:16 am

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:41 pm

Büge wrote:

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Thad » Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:26 am

Texas judge rules all registered voters can vote by mail if they fear catching coronavirus

Good.

The state attorney is appealing, and it is Texas, so who the fuck knows if it'll stand. But it's a good start.

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