"Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

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Mongrel
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:53 pm

Yoji wrote:Then again, I've read headlines with some official or another claiming we could have as much as ten times more cases than are being reported.

I think if one in ten people in the US were infected that would be impossible not to notice, even accounting for poor testing and asymptomatic cases.

In other news most of my Aussie friends are in Melbourne, which is just fucked right now.

While literally every other state and territory in Oz has managed have no new cases reported in a while, Melbourne's having an explosion in cases. A ton of suburbs were locked down last week, and many more were added two days ago, and on top of that, the lockdown has been ramped up to 11 in the original area, with people not allowed to leave their homes to even get food - OR get food delivered(!), and constant police patrols for enforcement. Many residences, especially a number of large apartment blocks in the city's northwest received NO NOTICE of the increased lockdown.

How are the residents supposed to avoid starving to death? Well, that's all a bit fucked right now you see. Originally there was a third-party food supplier which was supposed to provide meals or groceries, but apparently since no one told them that their delivery folks aren't allowed to fuck the people under lockdown (I am not kidding), they've been pulled off the job and now no one has any idea what the hell is going on for folks with no food (the ones I know are "lucky" ones who have at least some groceries stored and were in the areas only locked down yesterday, just barely outside the worst-hit/most buttoned up areas).
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby beatbandito » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:12 pm

Mongrel wrote:I think if one in ten people in the US were infected that would be impossible not to notice, even accounting for poor testing

Poor testing, maybe. But an explicit refusal of them?
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:20 pm

Oh don't worry, the rest the world is looking on with the horror of knowing you guys are fully, fully fucked.

Meanwhile Bolsonaro is praising Chloroquine. C'mon fuckface, you know you wanna show us how manly you are; take all the fuckin' magic bean pills you want.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby nosimpleway » Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:21 pm

When I went in for an unrelated blood draw I asked my general prac about getting an antibody check, since I think I got the bug back in April.

His professional opinion was that they're a waste of time: there are a lot of tests without any standards, and even if you get a correct positive it's too early to know whether it conveys any protection from reinfection or how long that protection might last.

I went ahead and scheduled a physical in October so I guess I'll ask again once we have a few more months' research.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Brentai » Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:38 am

Mongrel wrote:Oh don't worry, the rest the world is looking on with the horror of knowing you guys are fully, fully fucked.


American exceptionalism died the moment Paris stopped us at the door and told us we're not on the list. This is just us trashing the hotel room.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Thad » Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:40 am

Yoji wrote:Then again, I've read headlines with some official or another claiming we could have as much as ten times more cases than are being reported.

A bit more on that: Actual number of COVID-19 cases is 12 times higher than reported, with 50 percent more deaths, says MIT study

Last Friday the CDC said the number of coronavirus infections in many parts of the United States is more than 10 times the reported rate.

[...]

The MIT researchers included any country with at least 1,000 confirmed cases by June 18 and enough reliable testing data to interpret the results. Two countries battered by the virus, China — where COVID-19 first surfaced in December — and Brazil, were not included because there was insufficient reliable data.

The nations with the highest estimated percentage of populations infected to date, according to the MIT researchers, include Ecuador (18 percent), Peru (16.6 percent), Chile (15.5 percent), Mexico (8.8 percent), Iran (7.9 percent), Qatar (7.3 percent), Spain (7.1 percent), the United States (5.3 percent), the United Kingdom (5.2 percent), and the Netherlands (4.8 percent).


It's been 3 weeks since June 18, and a quick look at the CDC graph shows that June 18 was early in the current surge of cases we're seeing.

Some quick, unscientific back-of-the-napkin math:

There are 799,500 reported new cases from 6/19 through 7/7.
If the current total is 2,982,900, then that means the total on 6/18 was 2,183,400.
2,183,400 out of approximately 330,000,000 Americans is 0.66%.
If we're assuming the official 0.66% figure represented an actual figure of 5.3%, that would mean there were roughly 8 times as many actual cases as reported cases.
And if we assume that ratio still holds, that means the current proportion of 0.90% represents an actual infection rate of 7.2% of the population (at one time or another; keep in mind this is all reported cases since February, not the number of people who are currently infected).

Again, that's back-of-the-napkin math and makes a lot of assumptions (chiefly, that the last three weeks' ratio of reported-to-actual cases is the same as the average of the preceding four months' ratio). There are a number of reasons that rough estimate could be off-base. But "it could be about 7% of the population" is a believable estimate.


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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Brentai » Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:57 pm

I keep joking that the international community is going to finish the border wall just to keep us penned in and that joke gets less and less hysterical every day.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Friday » Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:59 pm

The joke I keep seeing is this poor Covid response is all a plan by Trump to actually get Mexico to pay for and build the wall.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Destynova » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 pm

The laughing stops on our side when we see the mines and machine guns are pointed in our direction.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:34 am

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:34 am

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Yoji » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:11 pm

I'd rather live in a world where that's some boilerplate they had for more mundane deaths, like accidents or school shootings. But you can't have everything you want.
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Esperath » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:42 pm

And continuing with our commentary on America, "ah yes, school shootings. How mundane."
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Silversong » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:00 pm

I am completely terrified of students returning next month. There is simply no way they will practice self-quarantine or social distancing, they will come from all over the country (and all over the world, if any other countries even have flights going here), they will go to parties and bars, they will go to grocery stores and sandwich shops and laundromats, and there will be no safe place for me anywhere. This entire town is about to become a huge outbreak, sacrificed to the gods of not laying off our student life staff.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Destynova » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:16 pm

Mongrel wrote:

Here is a redone version of the Disney video with more appropriate music.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:43 pm

That's memeing all over. There's one with the music from The Shining. :D
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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:17 pm

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Upthorn » Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:20 am

How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Re: "Coronavirus" is the category, dangit. (COVID-19 thread)

Postby Mongrel » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:18 am

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