Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

[Thad]

I'd take it with a grain of salt given that the source for that is Trump's lawyers, but we'll see.

AIUI the reason he went with Chubb on the last bond was they were the only org he could find that would accept real estate as collateral.

(Disclosure: I worked for Chubb for 6 weeks in 2011, or at least I worked for somebody who worked for somebody who worked for somebody who worked for Chubb; see Job 4: Contractor for a Contractor for a Contractor, Insurance Industry.)

[Mongrel]

Also his time's not completely up and setting up a half-billion-billion dollar bond is probably not a one-day dealeo. But Trump's staff is more likely to be releasing this info to solicit money rather than to pull a bait-and-switch just to demoralize critics with a sudden bond deal reveal.

Main thing I'm wondering is if they do proceed to property seizure, what do they even go for first?

[Thad]

New York Attorney General takes initial step to prepare to seize Trump assets

The New York attorney general’s office has filed judgments in Westchester County, the first indication that the state is preparing to try to seize Donald Trump’s golf course and private estate north of Manhattan, known as Seven Springs.

[...]

Entering a judgment would be the first step a creditor would take to attempt to recover property. Additional steps, such as putting liens on assets or moving to foreclose on properties, or taking other actions in court would follow, if the asset is going to be seized.

The judgment is already entered in New York city where Trump’s properties including Trump Tower, his penthouse at Trump Tower, 40 Wall Street, his hotel abutting Central Park, and numerous apartment buildings are located.

[KingRoyal]

I'd Like to See Ol Donny Trump Wriggle His Way Out of THIS Jam!

Jam starts wriggling itself so Ol' Donnay can walk out

A New York appeals court agreed to slash millions off of the bond Donald Trump must post to cover a $454 million civil fraud verdict while he appeals it, reducing it to just $175 million after the real estate mogul claimed he’d have to sell properties at a loss to raise cash.

The ruling Monday comes on the day Trump faced a deadline to either pay the fine or post a bond for 120% of the judgment to put it on hold while he appeals. That would have amounted to nearly $545 million dollars. He has 10 days to post the bond, the court ruled.

...

The appeals court did not offer any explanation behind their decision.

Emphasis mine

[Thad]

I'd Like to See Ol Donny Trump Wriggle His Way Out of THIS Jam!

Jam starts wriggling itself so Ol' Donnay can walk out

In case you were wondering what my problem with this meme is, it's that the sort of person who posts it acts like having to post a $175 million bond qualifies as "wriggling out".

[KingRoyal]

He'll get the money back and will continue to hold his properties, when before that judge's decision he was liable to actually start facing consequences. Now he'll just pay that bond with other people's money like he always has.

How many court dates get near only to then be pushed back by a month, two months? How many bonds get slashed AND he's given more time so he can avoid losing his properties? I'm stop saying he's wriggling once I stop seeing wriggling.

[Upthorn]

I'd Like to See Ol Donny Trump Wriggle His Way Out of THIS Jam!

Jam starts wriggling itself so Ol' Donnay can walk out

In case you were wondering what my problem with this meme is, it's that the sort of person who posts it acts like having to post a $175 million bond qualifies as "wriggling out".

I think that going from "I have to post a $545 million bond" to "I have to post a $175 million bond" qualifies as wriggling out.

Especially for someone in Orange Yelling Machine's social position, with easy access to vast fundraising opportunities

[Thad]

He'll get the money back and will continue to hold his properties, when before that judge's decision he was liable to actually start facing consequences. Now he'll just pay that bond with other people's money like he always has.

How many court dates get near only to then be pushed back by a month, two months? How many bonds get slashed AND he's given more time so he can avoid losing his properties? I'm stop saying he's wriggling once I stop seeing wriggling.

Which you previously defined as jail.

Either a lesser victory is still a victory or it isn't. If the lesser victory of a $545 million bond still counted as a victory, then the lesser victory of a $175 million bond still counts as a victory.

At least, if this were about logical consistency and not about consistently being a smug nihilist.

[KingRoyal]

Sure, he can be in jail, or he can have his properties seized by the state. Or he loses his property to his victims. Instead there's a pattern of consequences coming near, only to be arbitrarily allowed to delay.

Hell, the Supreme Court made damn sure they could keep on state ballot's while delaying actually weighing in on whether he can be tried for as long as they can.

"How will ol Donny wriggle out of this jam" isn't nihilism, it's pessimism. Though, one wonders how long pessimism can bat 1.000 before its just realism

[Mongrel]

I'm kinda with Royal on this one. The penalty he was facing was over 2/3rds reduced and crucially allows him to keep his possessions, which is really what this boils down to. It also continues to falsely legitimize him and further undermine the justice system as having double-standards for even the worst of the worst of the rich.

I'm not saying he's getting off scott free, but he's now avoided the most serious consequences of his decision once again and even if he gets hit later, this absolutely falls under the maxim that Justice delayed is Justice denied. Especially when the plan is to delay until he can become dictator for life (not saying the plan will work, just that that's the plan).

Ultimately he gets to keep trying at a cost he can bear versus a cost he couldn't bear and that's some bullshit.

[Thad]

David Lat has a piece called Clerking For Judge Cannon: A Behind-The-Scenes Look and it makes for an interesting read. The clerks (and others) Lat talked to paint a picture of Cannon as not stupid but green as hell, and not in the tank for Trump but biased by her background as an appellate AUSA and unable to adapt to thinking like a trial judge.

She was totally unprepared for cases of this level of complexity and public scrutiny; she's cracked under the pressure and that's caused the situation to spiral. She's become more demanding, leading clerks to quit, and she's had trouble replacing them because "clerked for Aileen Cannon" is now a line nobody wants on their CV.

It's an interesting profile but ultimately the question of why she keeps fucking up is academic -- it might make her a more interesting character in a movie someday, but in terms of the end result it doesn't really matter whether she's malicious or merely incompetent.

[Crick]

Someone may or may not have self-immolated in front of the Trump courthouse today. Which is, OOOO, a worrying portent to be sure.

[Grath]

Someone did, but it was because they wanted to co-opt the attention being given to the trial for their conspiracy theory manifesto rather than being pro or anti trump.

[Thad]

Teri Kanefield has a pretty thorough breakdown of the facts and law in what most folks are describing accurately but incompletely as the "hush money" case:
Sex, Lies, and Falsified Documents: Trump’s First Criminal Trial
Trump’s First Criminal Trial: Theories of the Case

It sounds like there's a pretty good chance they'll get a conviction on falsifying financial records. But that in itself is a misdemeanor; in order to bump it up to a felony, they have to prove it was in service of an underlying crime, which is more complicated to prove.

I'd say the prosecution's got a pretty good shot. But even if this case does end in a felony conviction, it probably doesn't end in any kind of jail sentence.

At least it seems like he's pretty unhappy being there. And every moment he's in a courtroom is a moment he's not out campaigning and whipping up the base (though of course he can and does use the trial as a fundraising pitch).

[Thad]

Generally a good idea to take oral arguments with a grain of salt, but it's looking like the conservatives on the SCOTUS are congealing around some kind of "Well no obviously the president doesn't have total immunity but he has some immunity and we're not going to decide whether or not he's immune in this case but we're going to create a test and remand it back to the lower court and ask the judge to apply it" position. If that is how they ultimately rule then it's about inline with what I've expected since they agreed to take the appeal: not actually ruling in favor of Trump's "total immunity" claim, but helping him with his "delay, delay, delay" strategy.

[KingRoyal]

Fascinating to see how the constitutional "originalists" are now contemplating whether the president is actually a king

[Yoji]

I guess "originalist" in the sense of going back to originally being the colony of a monarchy, I guess. I heard the radio talking about this and thought something along the lines of "if the president really is immune from this kind of thing, why not just make him king? Why did we even bother with that whole revolution thing?"

[Thad]

Fascinating to see how the constitutional "originalists" are now contemplating whether the president is actually a king

It's fucking stomach-churning is what it is. It's not surprising, but just because it's about what I expected doesn't make it any less grotesque.

This might be a good day for a news break.

[KingRoyal]

My apologies if my understatement about it comes of as actually thinking it's "fascinating"

[Thad]

Nah, that's me clarifying that I, too, am a lot more upset than my tone might have suggested.