Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Leaving Office

1. Trump will never concede and will be escorted/thrown out, a humiliating end that he will actually allow to happen
9
41%
2. Trump will concede, chuckle, say "You got me fair and square", a humiliating end that he will actually allow to happen
0
No votes
3. other
13
59%
 
Total votes: 22
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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:03 pm

Mongrel wrote:
Starting 14 days from now, unless Trump posts the cash to get a stay, pending appeal (which would go to Carroll if she wins), Carroll can use the judgment to seize Trump's personal property in all 50 states and put liens on all of his real estate.

AIUI he can either put up the whole amount and (hypothetically) get it all back if he wins on appeal (which he won't), or he can put up a bond which he won't get back but not have to put up the entire $83.3M upfront.

I'm thinking he'll go with the bond option, because it costs him the least money right now. (And in the long term, if he's able to get back into office and then just not pay any of his debts; always remember that his goal is not to win in court, it's to stall until he can become president again.)

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Mongrel » Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:53 pm

Thad wrote:(And in the long term, if he's able to get back into office and then just not pay any of his debts; always remember that his goal is not to win in court, it's to stall until he can become president again.)

Oh, absolutely. None of what he's been doing for the past four years was ever sustainable.

That conman instinct to stay on the on the offensive was always strong, but I think he also implicitly understood that he could never "go back" after a little while as President. Often the worst possible outcome for a conman is being too successful, enough that you graduate to new levels of scrutiny (see: George Santos). To some extent, Trump was used to significantly more public and legal scrutiny than the average huckster, but this is a whole new level of shit for him.
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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jan 29, 2024 8:47 pm

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Trump wanted to make really really sure everyone knows, just in case anybody hadn't already been hit hard enough on the head with the big cartoon mallet.
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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:30 pm

Fani Willis' court filing confirms romantic relationship with lawyer on Trump case but denies any conflict

They contend that their relationship started after he was assigned to the case and that, while they did take some expensive trips together, they switched off on who paid for them, so it wasn't a case of her giving him a cushy salary and then benefiting from it herself.

If it's true and they've got the receipts, then it's the kind of salacious gossip that will play with Trump's base but doesn't seem like grounds to disqualify either of them or affect the outcome of the case.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby KingRoyal » Tue Feb 06, 2024 12:11 pm

Appeals court rules Trump is not immune to prosecution

His actual defense of his actions on January 6th is some dumb shit, I can imagine that even Trump-favorable courts are sick of these dumb as arguments. And really, his "I'm immune to prosecution" defense isn't really because he's the president, but because that's what Trump believes about himself
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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Tue Feb 06, 2024 12:51 pm

It doesn't have to make sense, it just has to waste time.

I think they'll probably request an en banc hearing next. I don't expect that to pad things out much, maybe a couple weeks.

And I still think SCOTUS most likely doesn't take it.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:38 pm

I'm reading that the 2/12 deadline to appeal to the Supreme Court cuts off the en banc option (or, he can still do it, but the trial with Chutkan will resume in the meantime so it's no use as a delaying tactic), so forget that part.

Good.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:59 am

Oral arguments in the Trump ballot access/insurrection clause case.

Elie Mystal, as quoted by Laffy:

All right, let's set up what to watch for in today's #SCOTUS #Trump ballot access argument.
The justices I'll be paying the most attention to are Gorsuch & Kagan.
Court is likely to keep Trump on ballot. But...
Neil is guy who is most willing to carry his logic through to bitter end, to hell with the consequences. And Neil's logic *should* exclude Trump. He once wrote an opinion that kicked other people off the ballot, b/c they failed a textual test in the constitution.

Course, that guy was Arab & Trump is white &, unless you're white man or Nativ Amer, Neil isn't sure u get to exist in this country so there's that. Still, I can't count to 5 unless Gorsuch on bd, so I'll be listening for hope.

On the other side, Kagan is liberal most interested in making deals for "the good of the country."

She votes strategically &, if she thinks kicking off Trump would be bad for democracy, she won't go for it. If she's *hostile* to Colorado, this case could be 9-0 for Trump.

Pre-argument predictions (order of likelihood)
8-1, Trump on, Jackson dissenting
9-0, Trump on
6-3, Trump on, liberals dissenting to hell
5-4, Trump off, Gorsuch and Roberts joining
I go to a gym
7-2, Trump off, Thomas Alito dissenting
9-0 Trump off, dogs and cats living together

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:42 pm

Oral arguments aren't necessarily predictive of how things are going to go, but *everybody* was pretty skeptical of Colorado's arguments; this could end up being 9-0.

I see wailing and rending of garments in some quarters, and I understand not being happy about it, but as I've been saying all along I think this is not only the obvious result but the correct one. Obviously I think Trump is an insurrectionist and shouldn't be allowed to run for president, but I really don't think state civil courts are the appropriate forum to make that determination.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Cait » Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:42 pm

At least not without an actual conviction they can point to and say their hands are tied, really.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Mongrel » Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:54 pm

So Trump's daughter-in-law (Eric's wife, lol) is being put forth as a... National co-chair of the RNC?

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:25 pm

Trump filed the appeal to SCOTUS yesterday; they've given the DOJ a week to respond.

That's really fast.

I still think the likeliest outcome is that SCOTUS rejects the appeal and lets the lower court's ruling stand. No guarantees of anything, but there's no circuit split to resolve, Trump's argument is really, really dumb, and IIRC Kavanaugh wrote the majority when they threw out his last attempt to claim (narrower) immunity.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:46 pm

Teri Kanefield:
The DOJ filed its response to Trump's request for the Supreme Court to put his trial on hold.

For a reminder what this is about, see this thread: https://mastodon.social/@Teri_Kanefield/111926098652803347

The response the DOJ filed is here: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24427532/23a745-response.pdf

It sparkles.

In addition to being done well, it was done quickly. SCOTUS gave them a week. They filed it in 2 days.

Notice that they argue in the alternative: If Trump gets a stay, please expedite the proceedings as with the Colorado ballot case.

The DOJ includes some of the best lines from the appeals court decision, like this one:

Granting immunity for “alleged efforts to remain in power despite losing the 2020 election" would "neutralize the most fundamental check on execu-tive power" -- the ability to be voted out of office.

Screenshot #2 gives the standards Trump has to meet.

The hard one is #2: "A fair prospect that a majority of the Court will vote to reverse the judgment below."

They have to think he might win.

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The crux of the argument in the screenshot.

Then this argument: The remote chance he has of winning v. the public interest in a speedy resolution of this matter = no stay.

I like this one. Not likely to succeed because his claim of immunity: "finds no support in constitutional text, separation-of-powers principles, history, or logic.

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See why I don't think he'll get the stay? They have said no absolute privileges. Why would they think he can win on this?

Remember: he needs 5 votes to get his stay.

5 of them have to think he might win.

I guess anything is possible, but SCOTUS granting a stay seems remote.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:31 pm

Saw this summary of the Wade/Willis testimony from yesterday on another forum; I think it's pretty solid.

I'll try, but it's complicated because there are different issues with different standards at play, and they get jumbled a lot. I'm not sure I get them right all the time myself.

Undisputed facts:

- Wade paid for Willis' vacations while they were in a relationship and he was under contract to the DA office.
- Neither Wade nor Willis ever told anyone else in the office they were in a relationship or consulted with the ethics officer.
- Willis did not disclose the vacations as gifts on her annual disclosure form.

Disputed facts

- Were Willis and Wade already in a relationship when he got the contract? Defense attorneys and their witness say yes. W/W say no.
- Did Willis pay Wade back? W/W say she did, with cash that can't be traced. (No withdrawal or deposit records.)

Now the law:

Public Servant Ethics

Willis is subject to ethics requirements through her position. Those requirements say she can't accept gifts from a prohibited source, which would include Wade as a contractor, regardless of whether they were involved or not. The romantic relationship actually acts as defense here, because there are usually exclusions to this prohibition based on outside personal relationships. BUT, you should disclose those relationships and get preliminary clearance from your ethics officer before doing something as significant as accepting travel expenses. Willis clearly didn't do that. So her only defense is that she paid Wade back. In cash. Which neither of them documented in case anyone ever asked questions.

But...

Prosecutorial Ethics

A violation of these public servant ethics rules doesn't necessarily mean the alleged behavior violated prosecutorial ethics/requirements to the extent that Willis should be disqualified from the case, although it certainly doesn't help. But generally, Willis is prohibited from profiting financially from any prosecution she brings (above and beyond her salary) and has to exercise her discretion impartially. What the defense attorneys are trying to show is that her decision to bring such a complicated case was motivated, in part, by the indirect financial benefit she received from Wade. The exact standard the judge will apply in this decision, though, appears to remain unclear.

So what I think the judge will be deciding is:

1. Factual Question: Did Willis actually pay Wade back?
2. Factual Question: Were Willis and Wade in a relationship when he was hired?
3. Legal Question: And, depending on the factual finding, does this indicate bias to the extent that Willis cannot be seen as an impartial prosecutor and must be removed from the case?

The Charges Against Trump

None of the above actually reflects on the merits of the charges -- it only goes to whether Willis' decision to proceed was tainted by indirect personal benefit. In a perfect world, the case would be handed off to another officer that would act impartially. In our imperfect world, the fear is that it would be given to an office biased in Trump's favor, or that such a transfer would result in delaying the case beyond the election.

Phew. See, it's a mess.

ETA: The only thing I can say for sure is that law schools and CLE classes are going to be using this situation as an example of what not to do for decades.


This poster (who has a legal background) said elsewhere that they think Willis is toast. However, I've seen other folks with legal backgrounds say they don't see any valid reason to disqualify her.

I'm more inclined to believe the latter. It's clear that she fucked up, but I think the case for disqualification is thin, and the lawyers questioning W&W yesterday seemed about as competent as I've come to expect from Trump lawyers.

W&W's defense isn't great, but I'm not sure it has to be. "I paid him back in cash and don't have receipts" isn't an argument you really want to be making in front of a judge, but it's not wildly implausible, either. I don't think the defendants have made a good case for removing her, so I'm not sure she has to make a good case against it.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby KingRoyal » Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:43 pm

Whether Willis stays on or not seems secondary to the actual goal, which is reinforcing the Trump camp's claims that he is being unfairly pursued by a corrupt deep state that seeks to enrich itself. Normally these claims are backed by little more than bullshit claims, but Willis seems to have fucked up enough here that MAGA could reasonably recruit based upon it
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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:30 pm

Secondary to Trump, maybe, inasmuch as his legal strategy has always been a PR strategy.

In terms of what's actually important, I'd say the question of whether the current team stays on or the case gets kicked to someone who might be sympathetic to Trump and throw it out is a bigger deal. This is a criminal prosecution we're talking about, not just any old fundraising opportunity.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:26 pm

Donald Trump ordered to pay over $350m in New York financial fraud case
Trump also banned from running any New York corporation or entity for three years in devastating blow for ex-president

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Mongrel » Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:46 pm

Which doesn't even include accrued retroactive interest, which is already to the tune of +$210 million, putting it at half a billion. So far.

That said, he got some idiot to get a valuation for Truth Social at $7 billion right now, so if he can find anyone who still wants to bribe him for that much, he's got the money to carry on. I suspect however that the list of people willing and able to do so list consists of exactly Bin Salman. MAYBE Putin, but moving $7b in the US is not trivial for anyone with even the lamest links to Russia right now. Not impossible of course, but after Engoron's ruling and the appointment of a ton of financial monitors and observers, I think Trump's fucked hardest in how his books are now going to be permanently set to "open".

Which is to say, no, he's not wriggling his way out of this one, even if he doesn't immediately die of apoplexy (this is increasingly possible, lol) and does find someone to buy his ass out for now. Find Out levels are at unprecedented highs.

EDIT: Oh an in another blow, he can't get any loans through any bank which does business in New York, and at the scale of money he needs that list is gonna possibly be zero.
"The Court hereby enjoins Donald Trump and the Trump Organization and its affiliates from
applying for loans from any financial institution chartered by or registered with the New York
State Department of Financial Services for a period of three years."
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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Crick » Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:20 pm

Is there any provision in these that he can't just pay this off with money he fundraises from political bodies? Like, if he just emails out "I need money, because the deep state..."

I suppose there's nothing inherently illegal in begging for cash.

And I suppose it'll be hard to scam enough money to cover the cost of this.

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Re: Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

Postby Thad » Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:35 pm

I fully expect him to raid the RNC coffers, legal or not.

Which is bad news for other GOP candidates trying to get elected.

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