I think they've vastly overestimated the appeal of Star Wars in general.
I'm waiting to see Solo on the small screen. I want to see it. As far as I can tell modern Star Wars fans fall cleanly into two camps, those who liked Rogue One and didn't like Solo, and those who didn't like Rogue One but like Solo. I didn't like Rogue One (that much), so that makes me optimistic about Solo.
But I don't feel any need to go sit in a theater to experience it, and everyone I know who I'd go see it with has either done so already and doesn't want to do so again, or just can't be bothered. There was a Star Wars movie last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, and there will be one next year. It isn't a special event. If I need a spectacle, I can go catch the tail end of Infinity War's run or I can wait a month or so and there'll probably be some other loud and colorful superhero movie. It's not that damned important.
I think I'm not alone and I think this movie will do very well in ancillary revenue but I'm hoping the studio takes this as a sign that they need to pump the brakes a little bit. And they probably will, because studios don't understand a lot of subtleties but they definitely understand "the goose stopped laying golden eggs."
I actually kinda liked how 8 was willing to devote a good hefty chunk of its running time to the newbies completely fucking up and making everything objectively worse than if they'd done nothing.
That was my least favorite thing about 8 but I think on reflection it wasn't that the good guys fuck up, because of course they have to because it's Empire, but that the sum total consequence of their failure is "more people died off-camera than normally would have".