The Brexit Boondoggle

[Büge]

(I figured Brexit could use its own topic at this point)

[mharr]

We have: a minority government led by an instinctive authoritarian xenophobe who consistently fails to understand the relationship between the Crown-in-Parliament and the Government, not to mention an issue that has split the British public down the middle and similarly split both main political parties so badly that they're already fragmenting. It's being exploited as a wedge issue by the hard right and by foreign actors and unscrupulous investors who want to asset-strip what's left of the state and then repurpose it as a tax haven (there are signs that the hard left is also interested in the potential for what one might call "disaster socialism", but this is probably over-stated). The issue is also acting as a centrifuge on the Union, because majorities in Scotland and Northern Ireland opposed Brexit from the outset—indeed, the third largest party in Parliament, the Scottish National Party, are adamantly opposed, but totally sidelined by the dominant Conservative/Labour factions. And we have a bunch of other splinters under the fingernails of the body politic: the DUP (from the quasi-Christo-fascist right of Northern Ireland) propping up Theresa May, for example. And on the other other side, we have the EU27, who are acting collectively and defensively to defend their stability by enforcing the rule of international law—which none of the British factions seem to understand.

[Friday]

So, can someone who knows more about Brexit than me (which is basically anyone, I know very little) confirm/deny/comment on something I've been considering?

It seems like the EU's position is "you can come back no hard feelings, no legal penalties, but if you don't, then we are going to make you eat shit no deal Brexit."

I assume this is because they want to accomplish the following: To show that they want people in the EU and they're willing to let bygones be bygones, because everyone is better off together, but if you're serious about leaving, then they want the world to see exactly what happens to a country that thinks they're better off on their own to discourage others from leaving.

Again, I have no real evidence for this. Maybe someone can fill me in on what's going on in the EU's collective mind/position.

[Mongrel]

Obviously I'm no more European than you are, but yeah, that's my take on the EU's replies too; that they really do want the British to come down off the chair, but if the Brits won't, then the EU is happy to give them all the rope in the world.

[mharr]

The EU in general would prefer us to only half-leave, it's our own brinkmanship that's created the risk of crashing out with no kind of plan. The biggest complication is that Eire is an EU member state sharing a land border and a whole bunch of recent violent history with Northern Ireland of the UK. The EU have to look after their side if that suddenly becomes a real, controlled, probably violent border again and we've suggested nothing helpful. If anyone's waving No Deal around as a threat, it's Theresa May. (Note that her coalition partners the DUP were the terrorist wing of the UK side during the Troubles.)

Of course there are no actual hive minds IRL. It's possible that some players in both EU and UK are gambling that in the longer term, the no deal exit is the fastest route to the UK rejoining in full to escape the food riots. That still means a lethal decade or two of steadily increasing chocolate rations for anyone reliant on the NHS or social security.

[beatbandito]

I just grabbed the first result off google so I apologize if it's full of hot takes, but the latest news I've heard was Farage was begging EU Parliament not to extend the deadline because he knows that everyone wants to back out and the only way to prevent it is to not give them the chance.

So I'm seeing EU as sort of a motherly "we dearly want you to stay with us, but if you're not happy here, you're fully on your own." Which is probably the furthest stance from 'unreasonable' in the whole mess.

[Thad]

I believe May's deal was negotiated with the EU, so they're onboard with it; the problem is that it can't pass parliament. MPs who want a no-deal Brexit won't vote for it, MPs who don't want Brexit at all won't vote for it, and MPs who know that any deal short of the imaginary puppies-and-rainbows one that the Leave faction promised will make them very unpopular won't vote for it.

You've got Tories demanding May go back and get that puppies-and-rainbows deal they promised, and Labour finally starting to clear their throats and suggest maybe a second referendum is in order, which would have been a great idea a year ago. (I know I expressed sympathy for Corbyn's "look, this is what people voted for, so we should try and do it" position a couple of years back, but it's quite clear that public opinion has shifted since then, and Corbyn is long overdue in recognizing that. Leaving aside that the referendum should never have happened in the first damn place, and if it did, should have taken a different form from just "Leave" versus "Remain"; "Remain" versus "Come up with a plan to Leave and then come back and hold a referendum on that plan when it's ready" would have made a hell of a lot more sense.)

[mharr]

Mrs May has formally requested an extension and delivered a speech sidestepping all personal responsibility, painting a target on the nation's members of parliament and telling us all what we think about everything. Thatcher never went this far off the rails.

"Nearly three years have passed since the public voted to leave the European Union.

"It was the biggest democratic exercise in our country's history.

"I came to office on a promise to deliver on that verdict.

"In March 2017 I triggered the Article 50 process for the UK to exit the EU and Parliament supported it overwhelmingly.

"Two years on, MPs have been unable to agree on a way to implement the UK's withdrawal.

"As a result, we will now not leave on time with a deal on the 29th of March.

"This delay is a matter of great personal regret for me.

"And of this I am absolutely sure: You, the public, have had enough.

"You're tired of the infighting, you're tired of the political games and the arcane procedural rows, tired of MPs talking about nothing else but Brexit when you have real concerns about our children's schools, our National Health Service, knife crime.

"You want this stage of the Brexit process to be over and done with. I agree. I am on your side.

"It is now time for MPs to decide.

"So, today, I have written to Donald Tusk the President of the European Council to request a short extension of Article 50 up to the 30th of June to give MPs the time to make a final choice.

"Do they want to leave the EU with a deal which delivers on the result of the referendum, that takes control of our money borders and laws while protecting jobs and our national security?

"Do they want to leave without a deal, or do they not want to leave at all causing potentially irreparable damage to public trust not just in this generation of politicians but to our entire democratic process?

"It is high time we made a decision.

"So far, Parliament has done everything possible to avoid making a choice.

"Motion after motion and amendment after amendment has been tabled without Parliament ever deciding what it wants.

"All MPs have been willing to say is what they do not want.

"I passionately hope MPs will find a way to back the deal I've negotiated with the EU, a deal that delivers on the result of the referendum and is the very best deal negotiable.

"And I will continue to work night and day to secure the support of my colleagues, the DUP and others for this deal.

"But I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than the 30th of June.

"Some argue that I'm making the wrong choice and I should ask for a longer extension to the end of the year or beyond to give more time for politicians to argue over the way forward.

"That would mean asking you to vote in European elections nearly three years after our country decided to leave.

"What kind of message would that send? And just how bitter and divisive would that election campaign be at a time when the country desperately needs bringing back together.

"Some have suggested holding a second referendum.

"I don't believe that's what you want and it is not what I want.

"We asked you the question already and you've given us your answer.

"Now you want us to get on with it.

"And that is what I am determined to do."

[Mongrel]

Thatcher

We can only pray that May too, will meet with her own John Major.

[zaratustra]

So, can someone who knows more about Brexit than me (which is basically anyone, I know very little) confirm/deny/comment on something I've been considering?

It seems like the EU's position is "you can come back no hard feelings, no legal penalties, but if you don't, then we are going to make you eat shit no deal Brexit."

I assume this is because they want to accomplish the following: To show that they want people in the EU and they're willing to let bygones be bygones, because everyone is better off together, but if you're serious about leaving, then they want the world to see exactly what happens to a country that thinks they're better off on their own to discourage others from leaving.

Again, I have no real evidence for this. Maybe someone can fill me in on what's going on in the EU's collective mind/position.

the EU would prefer the UK not to leave, both because it's strong economically and because they need the other countries to keep faith on the project

they even offered a deal to theresa may, the problem is that the deal is shit because there's absolutely no possible deal that wouldn't be shit given all that has to happen for the uk to be considered "independent"

and frankly, the UK has been getting special deals from the EU from day one (you'll notice they never had to join the euro) and at some point it becomes a bit exhausting

[Mongrel]

it's strong economically

They're working on fixing that! :V

[Mongrel]

Guardian: Petition on UK government website asking to withdraw Article 50 (i.e. backing off Brexit) reaches one million signatures, in spite of constant site crashes and hours of downtime due to traffic load.

[Thad]

The comments on the Stross post mharr quoted are worth reading.

1. Theresa May is an authoritarian and she's staked her claim to the historical record on A50. To cancel it would be to publicly announce the one substantial plank of her tenure as PM is broken. She won't do it willingly.

2. About 100 Tories and a smaller number of Labour MPs are so adamantly pro-Brexit that if she goes back on A50 she'll split the party, possibly causing the emergence of a new right-wing party and effectively depriving the Conservatives of a governing mandate without Labour support. (Under Corbyn. Not gonna happen.)

3. UKIP is currently in the news due to entryism by the hard right—EDL and Britain First members (actual no-shit jackboot wearing sieg-heiling neo-Nazis) are joining in droves, and the party is swinging towards outright islamophobia. The threat to May from a right-of-Tory party is still there; if enough of her MPs defected to UKIP over Brexit, UKIP could actually become an indispensable coalition partner for her. (Note that the Conservative party has a really bad unadmitted internal racism problem, considerably worse than Labour's antisemitism issue: they're anti-immigrant and especially anti-moslem, so many of the ERG would be right at home in UKIP—it's just a matter of the electoral optics.)

What I'm saying is, the worst case could well be that we see Article 50 retracted … and end up with a UKIP-led government implementing actual no-shit neo-Nazi policies as a direct result.

So that's fun.

[Mongrel]

I wish I could say I was surprised, but this is the same country that spawned the National Front.

[Thad]

And more:

Latest: the petition got close to 1.8 million. And May announced that she wouldn't consider it at all.

She's determined to get her deal through, or pivot to a crash-out brexit. She won't revoke A50 under any forseeable circumstances. The cabinet is panicking, per the news.

The deadline's been pushed back to April 12, with an extension to May 22 if parliament approves a withdrawal agreement next week. Which surely is going to happen this time!

Corbyn has threatened a confidence vote if the House of Commons rejects May's deal a third time. She survived the last one 325-306, in January.

OTOH, there's speculation that May could offer to resign in the near future in exchange for a deal.

Unclear what happens next, though of course that's been the case since the referendum.

[Bal]

Where's Guy Fawkes when you need him?

[zaratustra]

One million people protesting Brexit.

But of course the politicians are more afraid of ten thousand fascists than of them.

[Mongrel]

I think the word you're looking for is "beholden".

[mharr]

[Mongrel]

May is now offering to quit in exchange for her Brexit deal being passed.

You do understand how that looks, right Theresa?

...right?