Arizona is a blasted hellscape

[Thad]

Ruben Gallego has dropped out of the race for McCain / McSally's Senate seat, leaving Mark Kelly (astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, for those who don't remember) as the sole Democratic candidate (at least for now).

I'd prefer Gallego to Kelly, but there are a lot of reasons this may be the right call. Kelly is the more electable candidate (though he's still looking at a tough row to hoe running as a pro-gun control candidate in Arizona), and the likely result of a Kelly / Gallego race would be Kelly winning and Gallego not only losing the primary but giving up his House seat to do it. I'd rather keep him where he is (which is the same reason I don't want Stanton to run for Senate).

[Bal]

While not being particularly familiar with Kelly's personal politics, his wife was my Congresswoman for a long time, and his opponent was too. I agree that he's much more electable, and at this point I'm most interested in getting rid of McSally.

[beatbandito]

Arizona senator brutally assaulted in the lead-up to a major public event

[Thad]

...man, don't do that; that's the sort of thing that could quite plausibly actually happen.

Actual headline is "Scorpion jeopardizes Arizona senator's milking thumb ahead of cow milking competition".

[Bal]

I definitely believed that headline at first glance, so please no, we have enough problems. Summer is coming.

[mharr]

The best detail is the bit where she's never milked a cow in her life and is just joining in because it's a street party. It's all so very local news, which is a nice place to escape to now and then.

[Thad]

Curt Schilling, best remembered in Arizona as the Diamondbacks' second-best pitcher and, presumably, best remembered in Rhode Island for that time his game company got a $75 million state loan guarantee and then went bankrupt, says he's mulling a congressional run against one of Arizona's five Democratic reps. He hasn't said which one, but if he's serious it'll be O'Halleran or Kirkpatrick; I think he's got a pretty slim chance against either of them, but no chance at all against the other three.

Hey Curt, you sure you wouldn't rather primary one of the Republicans? You can't be any worse than Gosar or Lesko, can you?

[beatbandito]

Or at least make a follow-up to Revelations*.


*reckoning, how could I ever not tell the difference between those two subtitles

[Bal]

Is he even well liked here? The Diamondbacks haven't been relevant in years, and he didn't even live in AZ for years.

[Thad]

I wouldn't exactly put it past Arizona voters to support a right-wing celebrity based on a hazily-remembered conception of past glory.

Like I said, I think his chances in districts 3, 7, and 9 are nil and his chances in 1 and 2 are slim (though you presumably know more about 2 than I do). But I think he'd totally have a shot in any of the districts currently held by Republicans. Gosar said the Nazi march in Charlottesville was a false flag set up by liberals to discredit Trump and then won reelection by 38 points. Yeah, I think Curt Schilling could carry Gosar's district. I even think he'd probably be an improvement.

Lesko's roughly as batshit as Gosar is. Schweikert's under investigation. Biggs...as far as I know is a pretty conventional Arizona Republican; he's a snake but seems to be a more conventional snake than the other three.

As for Schilling, he could just be making noise. (Remember when Kid Rock was talking about running for Senate?) This could just be a bid for attention and may come to nothing. Or it could be a vanity campaign, like Arpaio's run for Senate. If he runs for one of the districts where he has no chance, then it's a vanity campaign; he's just in it to get attention. If he runs in district 1 or 2, he might be serious but it's not going to be easy for him.

A lot of 2020 is going to come down to the presidential election, and it's tough to guess how that's going to go. It's quite possible we're teetering on the edge of a recession and if we fall over that edge then I think Trump is well and truly fucked; he's hanging on to a 42% approval rating entirely on the strength of the economy. But if the economy remains stable, he's got a shot at reelection.

I don't think any of Arizona's House seats are likely to change -- district 1 and/or 2 might swing Republican in a Republican wave year, but McSally's Senate seat is the one that's likelist to be a close race.

[Thad]

PS I'm on a VPN and can't edit Wikipedia, but would someone mind editing Andy Biggs's page? It claims his district is the same district John McCain used to represent, which is bullshit; McCain left the House 25 years before the current district lines were drawn.

[François]

Got you covered fam.

[Bal]

I can't imagine Schilling being competitive in any of the major districts down here. It took McSally to take down Barber, and she's much more big time than this guy. Not to mention how established Kirkpatrick is in Arizona politics. No chance against Grijalva, and he'd be primarying another republican in the 8th district.

[Thad]

If he runs, Curt Schilling says he would take on Rep. Tom O'Halleran

And speaking of assholes running ill-conceived vanity campaigns: Joe Arpaio Says He Will Run Again for Maricopa County Sheriff.

My first reaction was laughter. This is a grift. Everything Arpaio does is a grift. He doesn't have much of a shot.

But he's got a lot more of a shot than he did at the Senate. I am concerned at his decision to set a more modest and attainable goal. It feels a little bit more like he's serious this time and this is a real campaign.

I still don't think he'll pull it off. He lost by double digits last time. But it's enough to make me worry a little.

[Thad]

Proposition 105: Phoenix voters on track to continue light-rail extensions

They're still counting the votes, so it's not a done deal yet, but it doesn't look close.

The Koch brothers poured a bunch of money into this (among various other efforts to kill public transit throughout the country; Hasan Minhaj had a recent episode on the subject). Nice to see them defeated, especially when it's decisive.

[Thad]

Maricopa County Assessor accused of human smuggling, sale of a child in adoption scheme

In my county's defense, this story came out after he was elected. Twice. But still, Jesus, we sure can pick 'em. As long as he's got "(REP)" next to his name on the ballot, amirite?

[Brantly B.]

It's a feature, not a bug.

[beatbandito]

Actually probably one of the least-bad cases of a person in that position involved in Human Trafficking.

Pretty disturbed to realize that if it weren't for the lies about the mother's residency this is otherwise just completely legal adoption.

[Thad]

THAD WATCHES 90 MINUTES OF CITY ELECTION DEBATES SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO
(and also you don't have to because it's not your city)



Now, this may seem unimportant to you. But let me make you aware of something.

Every single time Marc Norman (the man with the beard) is onscreen is amazing. Someone needs to make a supercut of his responses. If you watch the video and just skip to the parts where he is talking, you will not be disappointed.

(And just to be clear, no, I am not voting for him, because he seems entirely unclear on how governance works. Though I admire his commitment, and acknowledge that he really seems to care, and running for city council is more than I've done.)

Special Bonus Even-More-Irrelevant Fact: the woman who introduces the candidates at the beginning of the video, the Reverend Sue Ringler? She is Good People. And the reason I can personally vouch for her as Good People is that her son, Alex Ringler, is also Good People and a dear old friend who I've known since high school. (also I don't know if you guys watch Deadbeat but he was in an episode of that)

...but seriously the point of all this is, vote in your local elections. I know the presidential election is where all the hype is, but take the time to research your local races; they're important too and your vote counts for a whole lot more. This is not the only video; I'm three hours deep into this, and while it might not be the most entertaining way to spend three hours (except for the parts where Marc Norman is talking), the reward is being an informed participant in motherfucking democracy. Research your local races. It's worth it.

[Thad]

Alarm grows as Arizona continues with days of high case increases, deaths and hospitalizations: 28,296 cases, 1,070 known deaths

I hate this shit.