Arizona is a blasted hellscape

[Thad]

After Disappointing Tulsa Rally, Trump Campaign Moves To Arizona

Oh god dammit.

Our numbers are already going up, you bunch of fucking psychopaths.

At least they're telling them to wear masks. Doesn't mean they will, but that still puts Phoenix ahead of Tulsa.

[Thad]

Police shoot flash-bang grenades, pepper balls at protesters outside Phoenix Trump rally

Wish I could say I was surprised.

[Thad]

'Instant chaos': Police shot into crowd minutes after beginning to clear road for Trump

[Thad]

Looks like we've got some good candidates for County Attorney. Montgomery is going to be tough to beat but given how well Democrats did in 2018 and that Biden and Kelly both seem to have a real shot in 2020 (and that Arpaio's running for sheriff again and I don't see him doing much better this time than his double-digit loss in 2016), I think Democrats have a shot at County Attorney.

[Thad]

Nathaniel Rakich has a pretty good breakdown of Arizona counties, cities, and demographics; there's no new information there for those of us who live here, but it's a pretty good primer for people wondering just what the fuck our deal is.

I've spent the past five elections dismissing "Arizona might really go blue this time" chatter as wishful thinking (we did go Clinton in '96, but that's the only time we've voted Democratic since Truman), but, well, Arizona might really go blue this time. Biden's got a real chance, and Kelly's got a better one. Part of that's down to the peculiarities of this election -- Trump and McSally are both unpopular, and the state Republican Party is in shambles -- but part of it really is that those shifting demographics people have been pointing to for the past twenty years are finally approaching a tipping point.

[Thad]

Freight train derails over Tempe Town Lake, part of bridge collapses

Smelled the smoke from my backyard before I heard what had happened.

More than 90 firefighterswere on the scene as thick smoke filled the air and planes from nearby Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport were being diverted.

Tempe police Chief Sylvia Moir tweeted that there were "no injuries known at this time but the scene is very dangerous. Stay out of Tempe Town Lake and away from the area."

[...]

Several train cars contained lumber while others contained unknown hazardous materials.

"We will have some residual fire for a while,” he said, as firefighters worked to determine what the hazardous materials are.

The Salt River Union Pacific Railroad Bridge was built in 1912 and survived as floods destroyed the previous three truss bridges constructed at the same location. The bridge is primarily used by cargo trains.

[Mongrel]

Smelled the smoke from my backyard before I heard what had happened.

The article mentioned some of that is carcinogenic, so I hope you're well out of it now (I'm guessing you didn't hang around, with your respiratory system not needing any more troubles).

[Thad]

It's 104 degrees out and it isn't even noon yet, so yeah, wasn't planning on spending much time outside today in the first place. Hoping the MERV 11 filter in my AC keeps the inside air clean.

[Mongrel]

Hoping the MERV 11 filter in my AC keeps the inside air clean.

At least it's new!

[Thad]

Looks like Arpaio lost the primary. The race still hasn't been officially called, but the latest count has him down by 6,000 votes with 3,000 ballots left to count.

I'm frankly a little surprised that Arpaio has acknowledged his loss and said this is his last race; I expected him to rant and rave and drag it out and maybe demand a recount and then keep coming back like a bad penny every two years to run for some office or another for the rest of his miserable life. Failing to win the primary for the job he got elected to for six terms feels like a nice, ignominious capper to his political career. He'll never face the justice he deserves, but I'll never get tired of watching him fail.

Course, the guy who did get the nomination, Jerry Sheridan, is Arpaio's former chief deputy, so, y'know, it's not exactly time to celebrate or anything.

And it ain't like the incumbent, Paul Penzone, is great either. But I'll still take him over any Republican.

[Thad]

A ‘Dreamer’ helped oust Arpaio. Now, after facing deportation following a George Floyd protest, she's battling Penzone

I think this is a pretty good preview of what happens next if Biden wins.

[Thad]

I don't have my ballot yet but I'm looking over what's up so I can get it submitted quickly once I get it.

The parts that usually require the most research look pretty straightforward this year; we've only got two ballot props, marijuana legalization and school funding, so I guess I don't even need to look at the packet this time. And I've looked over the judicial performance reviews and there aren't any red flags. (Jo Lynn Gentry gets the lowest marks, again, but I still can't find any explanation of why beyond "temperament" -- and I guess at least her scores have improved since last time.) I'm tempted to vote to remove all Ducey's Supreme Court nominees on principle because of his court-packing, but given that he's still governor and would appoint their replacements anyway there doesn't seem to be much practical point to that.

I still need to look at some of the more obscure down-ballot offices -- corporation commission, board of supervisors, water conservation, that kind of thing.

It's easier to do the research when I've actually got the ballot in my hand and can look at what and who's on it. Wonder if there's a way to get a sample ballot with a comprehensive list for my district.

ETA: Apparently there's supposed to be a sample ballot on the county recorder website at some point but it isn't up yet.

[Thad]

So in my continuing quest for HDR things to watch on my new TV, I went ahead and upgraded my Netflix plan and fired up Dancing with the Birds and anyway by about half an hour in I'm like "Say, I wonder how that marijuana legalization initiative is doing."

I can't find any polling more recent than July, but if November looks anything like July it's going to pass by an overwhelming majority. Support was 51% at the end of last year; by July it was 62%. (I suspect everyone being stuck inside their houses for months on end may have played a role in speeding up the natural progression of the trend line.)

It's not my drug of choice -- I don't smoke because I have asthma, and when I eat it it tends to knock me the fuck out for an entire weekend -- but frankly this seems like a pretty good time to knock myself out for an entire weekend and spend a couple days on the couch watching brightly-colored birds.

I s'pose that'll probably still be the case by April (when the initiative takes affect, assuming it passes).

[Mongrel]

Now I'm wondering what your drug of choice is.

(I'm guessing "beer.")

[Thad]

Got it in one.

[Thad]

(I also would have accepted "coffee.")

[Mongrel]

I like that the beer was in the afternoon, but once past midnight it went to coffee.

[Thad]

Oh hey, Wikipedia has an article, and it has more recent polling data. Which shows support much lower than the July poll and consistent with the December poll (51%).

However, two things:

* State polls are less reliable than national ones. It's not unusual for even reliable pollsters to wildly disagree in state-level polling. (Fox News -- which, remember, is a reliable pollster, despite being unreliable on most everything else -- recently released a poll that had Mark Kelly beating Martha McSally by 17 points. The average has him up by 6.7 -- a comfortable lead, but a whole lot less than Fox's margin.)

* The 62% poll surveyed likely voters, whereas the 51% poll surveyed registered voters. (Sample size of 420? I see what you did there.) As you'd expect, likely-voter polls tend to reflect the final results more closely than registered-voter ones do. OTOH, September polls tend to reflect the final results more closely than July ones.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about it. I'm skeptical that the final tally will look quite as stark as that 62-32 poll, but I think there's a better-than-even chance it passes.

[Büge]

I like that the beer was in the afternoon, but once past midnight it went to coffee.

Beer before coffee, vacation in Amalfi
Coffee before beer, you're stuck in Red Deer

[Mongrel]

A shark on whiskey is mighty risky, but a shark on beer is a Beer Engineer!