beatbandito wrote:Warren voters would go either way between Bernie or Biden person to person, but far less of either B-Boy's posse would go to the other willingly.
That's not really what the polls are showing.Voters’ Second-Choice Candidates Show A Race That Is Still Fluid
As of the most recent polls, Warren voters are much likelier (30%) to name Sanders as their second choice than Biden (19%). Sanders-Warren is 31%, Sanders-Biden is 26%, Biden-Warren is 19%, Biden-Sanders is 26%. With the caveats I mentioned before of polls being imprecise and public opinion being highly malleable at this stage in the game.
And that's just second choice. Where do those third-, fourth-, and fifth-choice voters go if the race narrows to two candidates? That's a complicated question.
As far as voters with no second choice, this polling data is a little older (October), but it's what I could find offhand:Most 2020 Candidates Have Something In Common: Their Supporters Also Like Warren
That supports your contention that the candidates whose supporters are most likely to be considering them and no one else are Biden (22%) and Sanders (15%), but that also demonstrates that the vast majority of their supporters *are* considering other candidates. It also bears noting that they're the candidates with the strongest name recognition; some of the people saying "I'm only considering Biden" are saying that because they haven't been following the race and don't know anything about the other candidates (and may not even know who else is running).
I suspect that there's some of that going on with Sanders, too, but I also think that his supporters are a lot more loyal than Biden's. Like I said before, a lot of people are supporting Biden because they think he's got a better shot of winning than the other candidates; if he starts losing primaries, that's going to really hurt the perception that he's the strongest candidate. A string of losses could easily snowball, though he's popular in the South and even if he loses I think he'll hang on awhile first.