Arizona is a blasted hellscape

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Thad
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:00 pm

The Republican argument in this case was, "There are three counties that are still allowing voters to confirm ballots with mismatched signatures; that's not fair because the rest of the counties won't do that after election day." That is a perfectly reasonable argument, if you ignore the (entirely coincidental, I'm sure) part where they never complained about this before and waited until there was a close election where the three counties in question leaned Democratic.

The counties called their bluff, and they reached a settlement where the rest of the state will give everybody the later deadline to confirm ballots with mismatched signatures.

Again, this is the correct result. It does help Republicans, because the remaining counties are less Democratic-leaning. But that's okay. No matter how the final tally comes out, the right thing to do is always the thing that gives everybody a fair chance to vote and have their vote counted.

An aside: I once got a notice that the signature on my ballot didn't match the one they had on file. There's nothing sinister about it; sometimes signatures change, for perfectly innocent reasons. My signature had changed because I'd spent the previous fall semester working a retail job where I had to keep signing my name all day; of course if you spend all day signing your name, your signature is bound to get quicker and scratchier.

I got a notice in the mail (I'm pretty sure it was after the election, though this would have been '05 or '06 so I can't remember with certainty); I filled out the form, confirmed that that's my signature now, and mailed it back in. They counted my ballot without any further issue.

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nosimpleway
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby nosimpleway » Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:12 pm

Well, sure. Your name is Thaddeus, not Tadeo.

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Caithness
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Caithness » Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:45 pm

My signature is different every single time.

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Bal
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Bal » Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:24 am

Sinema lead continues to grow. At this point we are officially well inside the votes that Republican strategist were predicting would break toward McSally, and they're not. With only 3 precincts left, it's difficult to imagine that there are enough McSally votes left to swing it over to her. For McSally's part, despite the outrage urged by the party, she seems to be taking this all with aplomb. It likely helps soothe any bruised ego she may have that she's very likely to be appointed in John Kyl's place early next year.

However, as of now, it looks like the defacto Senior Senator from Arizona is going to be Kyrsten Sinema.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:34 pm

Bal wrote:Sinema lead continues to grow. At this point we are officially well inside the votes that Republican strategist were predicting would break toward McSally, and they're not. With only 3 precincts left, it's difficult to imagine that there are enough McSally votes left to swing it over to her.


It depends a lot on which precincts. Latest from AZ Central:

Sinema’s lead grew to 29,832 votes as of 7 p.m. and gave her a 1.4 percentage point advantage.

Overall, Sinema has 1,048,655 votes and McSally has 1,018,823. Green Party candidate Angela Green has 49,584.

The Arizona Republic estimates there are 260,000 ballots still to be counted in the state. The number for Maricopa County is 198,000, where, so far, Sinema has been winning by 3.5 percentage points.


But Maricopa County's not a monolith. If the remaining votes are coming from places like Sun City, I find it entirely possible to imagine them breaking McSally's way in sufficient numbers to erase Sinema's lead.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not counting any chickens just yet.

For McSally's part, despite the outrage urged by the party, she seems to be taking this all with aplomb. It likely helps soothe any bruised ego she may have that she's very likely to be appointed in John Kyl's place early next year.


Yeah, it's weird more people aren't talking about that. This race is close enough that, one way or the other, we can expect the loser to run again in 2020, whether as an incumbent (McSally) or a challenger (Sinema).

However, as of now, it looks like the defacto Senior Senator from Arizona is going to be Kyrsten Sinema.


It does. McSally's still got a path to victory (and, as you say, will probably be seated in January one way or the other), but the numbers are certainly good for Sinema at this point.

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Bal
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Bal » Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:52 am

Lead continues to grow with about 160k outstanding votes. Race is likely to be decided in the middle of the week.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:08 am

McSally's campaign appears to be jumping on the "it was rigged" bandwagon. The Republic:

McSally's campaign did not immediately weigh in on the latest update. Shortly before the results were posted, McSally asked followers of her Facebook page to report any problems they may have had when voting.

"URGENT: Numerous reports of improper procedures at polling locations. Help us gather the facts," the Facebook post said. It directed followers to a phone number and a National Republican Senatorial Committee website to report "ANY voting irregularities or problems you witnessed."

Shortly before 7 p.m., the post had been removed from her page.


At least they removed it, so there's a possibility it was just an overzealous staffer and not sanctioned by the campaign.

Again, undermining faith in election integrity is dangerous and I really hope that, after the election, this view is merely the domain of a few cranks and not conventional wisdom.

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Bal
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Bal » Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:57 pm

Maybe if the President stops tweeting that it's true, but currently the view among the Fox News crowd is that a Republican victory is evidence of the system working in spite of itself, and a Democrat victory is the result of conspiracy.

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Bal
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Bal » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:45 pm

"I think it's over,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican strategist in the state.

It now seems inevitable. The time frame for the Republican swing from hand in ballots has come and gone. The remaining districts are ones that Sinema was projected to win in the first place.

I'd just like to take this opportunity to mention that at least 3 Democrats stumping for the party and at least one for Sinema in particular knocked on my door to make sure I was voting this year. I don't know what it was like around the state, but I get the impression the Dems really came out in force.

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Thad
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:48 pm

It's been called for Sinema; McSally has conceded. Things are looking pretty good for Hoffman and Hobbs, too, though those races haven't been called yet.

Image

Meanwhile: Former Arizona AG Grant Woods now re-registered as Democrat

Guess he won't be running as an independent after all.

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Bal
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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Bal » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:21 pm

Scratch that, Hoffman wins.

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Re: Arizona is a blasted hellscape

Postby Thad » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:46 pm

I just realized that "Senator Sinema" is very hard to say.

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