Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

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Grath
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Grath » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:06 pm


Also a satire article about... mostly the previous iterations of this thread.

(The "sensitive content" is just a kinda pudgy old guy putting on a helmet and posing with a tank.)

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby IGNORE ME » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:25 pm

Please don't.

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:46 pm

I think the parody article's just a bit of fun (i.e. I don't feel targeted), but we'll just leave it at that and move along.

Grath wrote:


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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:40 pm

Less-unseriously, I watched this a couple weeks back and it's really stuck with me. Not for any one reason, but there's a *LOT* going on here, as this guy talks about his training, the equipment they had, the way they tried not to be left behind even before they got to the fighting.

The poor condition of stored tanks being issued even several months ago is noteworthy, since one of the common comments about Russia's remaining strengths is that on paper they still have a couple thousand tanks in storage but that no one knows how bad of a shape the unissued remainder is in.



It's pretty clear this was a guy who was very much not predisposed to war or killing in the first place, and just kept getting pushed but by bit during the recruitment process until he realized he was in a very dangerous situation he never would have signed up for - one of the older tricks in the books, of course. In spite of all that, he was also very, very lucky when it mattered most.

I think what strikes me most though is the way his story mirrors the very common one heard from ex-Iron Curtain countries about 1991, how under the Soviet Union it seemed like all anyone did was just exist, until they suddenly had actual lives and futures they could make decisions about collectively and individually, and how that's an exhilarating but very disorienting experience. It's also very similar to the accounts from lifelong prisoners or slaves who suddenly find themselves free. Even once the disorientation passes, it's still all very emotionally overwhelming for a time afterwards as you try to shake off decades of learned helplessness.

I think it's pretty easy to understand that once you're granted that feeling, it means everything in the world to you, and that joining the "other" side so readily isn't as weird as it might seem to some, especially for guys like this who don't really have anything to go back to.
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:17 am

Today is Putin's birthday.

The Ukrainians just hit the Kerch Strait bridge (nailed a train carrying fuel as it was crossing as well). Second video is more of the same as the first, just later on, after the fire was put out.



They also blew up several Tu-22 long range strategic bombers (which have been used by Russia to launch cruise missiles) on an airfield in Kursk.

It's not yet clear how, but Ukraine's reach has dramatically extended.
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Grath » Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:00 am

Worth noting: There's purported footage of the explosion where the explosion happens right as a truck is driving past, roughly centered on the truck, and Ukraine is celebrating but hasn't claimed responsibility. It's possible that this was sabotage from angry Russians or a third party, and that whoever did it used a truck bomb rather than some sort of missile/planted explosives.

Edit:

This is the clearest angle available and if you step through frame by frame, the truck appears to be past the location of the explosion before it happens and there's sparks falling under the bridge shortly after. Seeing further discussion of what might be a boat under the bridge just before the detonation, or landmines having been previously placed.

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby nosimpleway » Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:22 am

Crimea bridge

more like Crimea River amirite

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Büge » Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:43 am

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:07 pm

Grath wrote:This is the clearest angle available and if you step through frame by frame, the truck appears to be past the location of the explosion before it happens and there's sparks falling under the bridge shortly after. Seeing further discussion of what might be a boat under the bridge just before the detonation, or landmines having been previously placed.


Yeah, I don't think it was a truck bomb either - that wouldn't explain the train being hit, nor the fact that the road bridge is knocked out in two places a moderate distance apart. Plus in all the Russian footage there's pretty clearly no blast marks on the road sections, which appear to have fallen exactly at the expansion dividers - very precise. Everything about this has been very precise, actually; the date, the time of day (minimal traffic), hitting a moving train exactly in the middle (a fuel train at that), the clean "cuts" to the road bridge and arguably the fact that they hit only one side, not both, leaving an "escape valve" (a deliberate choice IMO, considering they blew the same side of the road bridge twice).

Some sort of boat or naval operation is very much a possibility, yeah. Easy to control all those factors if you've wired up the bridge and are doing it right there in person.
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Grath » Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:55 pm

Mongrel wrote:and arguably the fact that they hit only one side, not both, leaving an "escape valve" (a deliberate choice IMO, considering they blew the same side of the road bridge twice).

Also the side of the road bridge that blew up was the Russia to Ukraine direction, leaving the road back to Russia relatively intact.

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Grath » Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:30 pm


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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby beatbandito » Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:17 am



can we all admit that war is cringe, now?
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Crick » Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:11 pm

"War is Hell Cringe."

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sun Oct 09, 2022 2:37 pm

Now I'm imagining that episode of OG Star Trek where they have computers simulate the entire war (a classic "Kirk kicks the Prime Directive in the balls" episode), only it's government social media accounts trying to shitpost at each other. No one can score a knockout blow because official government portals trying to shitpost, and then Kirk just rolls up and ends the war by roasting the hell out of both sides.
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Grath » Mon Oct 10, 2022 12:10 pm

Putin has predictably decided to retaliate for the destroying of the military supply bridge illegally built on occupied land (with attack timed for minimum collateral damage) with cruise missile strikes against a bunch of civilian locations, but not all of those strikes were successful:

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:42 pm

A bit of background to explain how nuts this shot is.

Those are old Soviet MANPADs - for shooting down choppers, fighter-bombers and whatnot, not supersonic cruise missiles. Though to be fair more modern NATO MANPADs could never do this, because they have better heat-tracking for ease-of-use with what you're supposed to be using them for!

Our shooter here, Vanya, has possibly just pulled off a shot no one's ever done before, saving who knows how many lives in the bargain as well. I fear for his liver, cos this man's never gonna be allowed to pay for his own drinks again.
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Yoji » Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:47 pm

Well, that's a little fun: How to Troll Russian Officials. Never a bad time to punch up.
Image: Mention something from KPCC or Rachel Maddow
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Grath » Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:51 pm

So, not retaliation for the bridge, the terrorist strike on civilian infrastructure was planned on the 2nd and 3rd:

However, the deputy prime minister of Moldova has some questions for Russia given the flight path of three of the missiles:

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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:59 pm

Mongrel wrote:Image


"They" in this meme is now true from multiple directions, as the Belorussian Armed Forces are basically going to empty their armouries and warehouses for Russia. There's video of the trains leaving Belarus loaded not just with ammunition, supplies, trucks, and such, but tanks too.

Honestly not going to do a lot for Putin in the long run (especially if they're going to give them out with no training like they have everything else), but it might weaken Lukashenko! If nothing else, it just further guarantees Belarus is not going to enter the war. Hell, for all we know, "Gimme all your shit. If you're not gonna use it, then I want it back!" was Putin's plan B once he finally - finally - figured out that Lukashenko's not going to step on the rake for him.

Now's as good a time as any to spare a thought for the often-forgotten Belorussian partisans who risk everything in support of Ukraine by sabotaging Belorussian rail lines and other government infrastructure.

EDIT:
Russian sources posted videos on October 11 purporting to show Russian forces constructing trenches with BTM-3 entrenching machines along the Svatove-Kreminna line, with one source dubbing the effort a Russian-made “Maginot” line

Oh boy. Nobody tell him!
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Re: Working Out Some Issues in Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Wed Oct 12, 2022 2:00 am

Some of this mobilization shit is just fucking wild. From today's ISW report:
Russian officials are continuing to use mobilization as a form of punishment against individuals who refuse the Kremlin’s mobilization orders. Governor of Magadan Oblast Sergey Nosov in a leaked conversation with subordinates demanded that they directly issue a mobilization order to the manager of the gold mining company for refusing to administer mobilization notices to his employees.[61] An unnamed business owner told RFE/RL that local officials are extorting businessmen for 10 percent of their employees in exchange for exempting firms’ top employees from mobilization.[62] The Kremlin has also mandated all Russian business owners to provide information regarding their employees to local military enlistment centers, and local officials may use these lists to coercively mobilize more men.[63] Local officials may use the guise of mobilization to demand bribes from business owners; Ukrainian and Russian sources have reported the emergence of such organized corruption schemes within the Russian defense sector.[64]

Russian enlistment officers continued to issue wrongful mobilization summonses and are increasingly attempting to coerce men to accept these notices. Russian authorities are issuing mobilization notices to deceased persons. St. Peterburg-based outlet Fontanka reported that employees of housing maintenance offices left mobilization notices on the doors of men who have been dead for years.[65] RFE/RL shared accounts of wrongfully mobilized men who had stated that enlistment officers, despite knowing of their wrongful mobilization, attempted to physically and mentally coerce men into accepting their summons.[66]
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