Barefoot and Pregnant

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Mongrel
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:49 pm

Friday wrote:
Preparation may include forming concrete plans to leave the US.

A luxury of the privileged, to be sure, but history has shown that "staying to fight" is usually a losing gamble.


I guess it depends on your definition of "losing".

For the individual? Absolutely, in each instance. That's probably what you meant.

In terms of actually seriously impeding the Nazis, though? The French would like a word, among others.

You're describing situations where a person stays behind to defend their country from an actual military invasion by a foreign power, which has more of a mixed record of success, yes.

In a strictly internal situation such as the US faces, the opposition to a political faction which seizes power in a coup has generally not fared well. The analogy you're looking for here is not the French Maquis, but German Jews.
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Silversong
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Silversong » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:57 pm

So, I usually stay out of the politics talk but, I've heard that Lincoln just straight up told the Supreme Court to shove it. Couldn't everybody just agree to stop taking the Supreme Court seriously and ignore them?

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Mongrel
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:09 pm

The problem is that the Dems need full control of the Senate to do that.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby KingRoyal » Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:57 pm

Silversong wrote:So, I usually stay out of the politics talk but, I've heard that Lincoln just straight up told the Supreme Court to shove it. Couldn't everybody just agree to stop taking the Supreme Court seriously and ignore them?


The legal answer is "Yes" because the power of Judicial Review is not specified in the constitution

The realistic answer, though, is no. We're talking about a political party that won't even get rid of a parliamentary rule that continually shoots themselves in the foot. They're not gonna ignore the court

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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby hngkong » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:01 pm

Mongrel wrote:The problem is that the Dems need full control of the Senate to do that.

Also have any real interest in doing it. Fundraising emails went out less than 5 minutes after the announcement.

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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Upthorn » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:11 pm

Mongrel wrote:Preparation may include forming concrete plans to leave the US.

I don't the spare $10,000 necessary to apply for a visa anywhere. And even if I did, I'm permanently disabled -- not exactly the sort of person who countries fall all over themselves to offer permanent residency to.

I don't even have a spare $700 to fly somewhere to apply for refugee status. And even if I did, as a white cis-het male, my case for refugee status is pretty tenuous unless there's an actual shooting civil war here.

And if there were to be such, I'd rather throw my life away trying to make a difference than just run.
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.

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Mongrel
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:29 pm

I know. I acknowledged this is something accessible only to the privileged in my first post.

Moving states is still an option as I suspect blue states will successfully shelter their citizens for a while, and it will be the difference between life and death for some. As difficult as even that may be, it may be something some of you are forced to consider. It's on the rest of us to provide what shelter or money we can.

I'm not deliberately trying to be pushy about this. I just don't want any of you to, you know, die. Because that's what "It can happen here." means, ultimately.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Blossom » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:07 pm

Silversong wrote:So, I usually stay out of the politics talk but, I've heard that Lincoln just straight up told the Supreme Court to shove it. Couldn't everybody just agree to stop taking the Supreme Court seriously and ignore them?


They could. They won't.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:07 am

First shot back from the administration.

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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:36 pm



NY and MA as well.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby pacobird » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:09 pm

Silversong wrote:So, I usually stay out of the politics talk but, I've heard that Lincoln just straight up told the Supreme Court to shove it. Couldn't everybody just agree to stop taking the Supreme Court seriously and ignore them?


No, because the supreme court is not asserting authority here, but abrogating it. Roe v. Wade didn't make abortion legal per se, it just directed all lower courts to not enforce state laws criminalizing it. Now those courts will have to enforce those laws.

No amount of political will, democratic or otherwise, can change this because the point of Roe - and substantive due process generally - was to restrain political will, not enable it.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby pacobird » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:18 pm

IMO, this will be seen as a precipitating event in a serious crack-up of the United States, not because of the contentiousness of the issue but because of the already full-throated commitment of some states to help the citizens of others break the law. It will be an actual crisis of federalism unless there's a federal ban on abortion, which is what the GOP will use to justify one at their earliest convenience.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Friday » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:40 pm

yeah it's funny I was thinking basically the same thing.

I know I said somewhere in some other thread recently that if Civil War 2 breaks out it won't have the neat lines of the first, but maybe not??!!?!

It's just gonna be weird when the center of the nation attacks the coasts.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Brentai » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 pm

I know it's harder to believe given the center's general belligerence but I would say it's going to go the opposite direction in this scenario. The coastal areas are the ones in a position of either accepting a government entity they don't consider legitimate literally laying out a roadmap of highly unpopular reversals, or doing one of the only two things about it listed explicitly in the Constitution. And both sides are self-aware enough to realize that being the entity that actually started a civil war gives them an extreme disadvantage wrt recruiting a bunch of people who definitely didn't want a civil war to their cause, so it's basically a "force the first punch" game at this point. Just like last time.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:15 pm

The main problem in the short term is that the GOP have unleashed a legal nightmare so awful that a lot of law societies are actually being VERY conspicuous in their total silence on the issue.

A lot of people say "We're just going back to 1972" but that's not the case at all, not even remotely, due to (among many other things) the hideously badly-written trigger laws which treat abortions as capital murder, as in eligible for the death penalty.

Just ONE example of the unintended consequences is that it's possible - likely even - that OBGYNs and possibly other doctors will be literally unable to practise in states where abortions are treated as murder. No insurance company will touch them and even if they did, how many docs are up for risking execution (or a lengthy and bankrupting court ordeal) every time a patient of your miscarries. Anywhere!

You hear, "But wait, the cops will just ignore that, right?" LMAO I think we know no one can count on this. Also, since they're murder cases, either the cops will be forced to basically be just investigating phony non-murders day-in day-out, or will be trapped in a limbo where someone else will give them shit for not investigating a murder. Not only does that mean politicians or senior cops - Texas still has it's bounty snitch law on the books!

So that's already going to be just fucked. What doctor is going to risk that? What med school for that matter? Red States may see some medical schools and campuses close entirely, since enrolment in those states is likely to drop like a rock.

Not to mention the effect of women basically fleeing red state campuses. The ratio of women to men in those places will become worse and worse, likely leading to an increasingly stupid level of machismo bro culture. The few women who remain will be obvious targets for rapes and sexual assaults, and that cycle's only going to worsen from there on out, leading to fewer women, who become bigger targets.

All sorts of possible consequences there, Universities and colleges may end up having to fully segregate by gender if they wish to retain any female enrolment at all. Enrolment by women will probably drop on an overall basis. The GOP is more than happy with those sorts of changes.

The big question is how much sheer legal chaos the US is in for, and for how long.

If that sounds extreme, well, look at family photos from Iran (or other mideast countries) from the mid-70's and then look at ones from the mid-80's. Couple of years and it was normal. Now women in the US do have more freedom historically than most women in the mideast did, sure; the political systems in those countries was still completely dominated by men. Whereas the US has seen women in positions of power for decades, so yes, there's going to be more resistance in the US. But if it took less than a half-dozen years elsewhere, I wouldn't say you can count on fighting the good fight forever without either victory or death.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:28 pm

I am more and more thinking that immediate court packing is not just an electoral winner and a moral imperative, but a mechanical necessity for the Dems to survive at all.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Metal Slime » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:21 am

In a brief spark of light some of the trigger laws can be challenged to be put on hold briefly like Lousiana's was today since some of them were written so badly that arguments are being made that they are unenforceable due to hilariously poorly defined legal language. I'm guessing some of those trigger laws were only done for the brownie points and the writers at the time never dreamed that they'd actually trigger.

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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Mongrel » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:28 am

Maybe. I'm leaning more towards their being written by idiots who BRO'd and greased their way through law school.

I mean, Rich GOP scions, come on. They make W look like he's in line for a Nobel in Applied Chemistry.
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Brentai » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:49 am

Just considering writing these sweeping laws in the first place requires either a fundamental misunderstanding of the issue, incredible malevolence, or some combination of both.

I suspect the biggest misconception on both sides of the issue is that abortions are somewhat uncommon. I also suspect the actual scale is going to become... much more clear to people, over the next three months.

(I also expect the family morals people to choke a bit on their own smugness when they realize that the people they've mainly convinced to stop having sex are heterosexual, stable couples - you know, the people making decisions about their pregnancies. Gays don't give a damn, and people who are just horny and not thinking straight will continue to be horny and not thinking straight regardless of the consequences.)
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Re: Barefoot and Pregnant

Postby Silversong » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:11 pm

Interesting and at least somewhat heartening, comparatively. http://www.dorfonlaw.org/2022/05/nullification-in-abortion-prosecutions.html

" Rather, it is enough that, when posed with the choice to convict or not, they [jurors] in fact realize that they can vote their conscience without repercussion. Thus, those opposing abortion prosecutions should engage and teach the public about the power of nullification."

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