Postby Friday » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:21 am
My friends talk about this constantly. Specifically two of them, the most politically active of my group. One of them is the concept of a "normalcy bias" given flesh, and the other is one of those guys who moves from one wild speculation as certainty to the next as they don't pan out. So both are kind of extreme examples of how to be wrong about politics 100% of the time.
Anyway, they talk about this topic (the midterms and how Roe affected it) more than any other, and it's been interesting to listen to them argue about it. My own bias lies in cynicism, I always expect the worst. But I've been working on that in recent times, because
A: it's awful for your own mental health to think and live like that
and just as importantly
B: it's actually wrong. Good things do happen and denying that they can happen is fucking stupid.
Roe being overturned will have backlash. It is absolutely moronic to believe otherwise. As more and more stories about headless babies being forced to birth make the news, liberals, moderates, and progressives who are too lazy to vote "because it doesn't matter" are going to be constantly reminded that this is the world that the GOP wants. And they will vote because of it in times and elections they would not otherwise have.
The above paragraph is factual. You can dig into it and debate the extent of it and if it will be enough to make a difference and you can bring up how it will affect the right's voting patterns, but in the end, the above paragraph is factual.
History has shown us that most of the time change is incremental. History has also shown us that some of the time, change is not incremental. The previous two sentences are also factual.
I don't know about you, but I have my eyes open. I expect nothing and I do not close my mind to any possibility.
That being said, it's not a waste of time to try to analyze where things are heading. And yeah, if I had to guess, I'd say we're going to see some backlash that makes a difference.