Insane in the Ukraine

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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:30 pm

Found out that part of the reason the trucks have not been maintained is because the Russian armed forces have had a general shortage of NCOs since the transition to a post-Soviet army, both structurally (as in their forces are set up to use more Junior Lieutenants in what are traditionally Sergeant's roles) and due to recruitment shortfalls. This is particularly acute in long-service NCO positions like... maintenance pools!

The background is that basically they couldn't decide whether to keep the mass-conscript draft-based service of the Soviet era (which allows you to massively mobilize on short notice), or to move to a more professional army structure, so they went with a weird hybrid with professional officers and more of them, but mostly a mix of short-service and conscript troops, that was kind of the worst of both worlds. Both the Tsarist Russian armies AND the Soviets had a really strong NCO pool, but the new system encouraged those who stayed in the service to become officers and others obviously left for civilian life, so the NCO ranks shrank drastically. This is also why you see all those abandoned Russian soldiers or POWs with no one in charge - because their default lead are those lieutenants, who as we have heard are often hiding miles behind their men and the front lines.

Recognizing the maintenance part of this problem back in the aughts, the Russians subsequently created a weird sub-officer-yet-still-an-officer "Warrant Officer" (which is nothing like a Warrant Officer in western armies) role to try and fill that role normally held by long-service technical/logistics NCOs. The success of that system was mixed and they even rolled it back at one point before reintroducing it, so even with less trucks to maintain they're still seriously short on maintenance personnel.

So for anyone who's ever been in the army and had to do shitty motor pool work, well, yes, this is the object lesson armies will use in future to teach recruits WHY they have to do all that boring crap even with equipment that's not going anywhere!
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby hngkong » Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:49 pm

Mongrel wrote:...the Russians subsequently created a weird sub-officer-yet-still-an-officer "Warrant Officer" (which is nothing like a Warrant Officer in western armies) role to try and fill that role normally held by long-service technical/logistics NCOs.


Excuse me, that's literally exactly how Warrant Officers work in the US Army too. In my six years in the army, I didn't see a single one of them do ANYTHING. And it's the same with the marines.

https://terminallance.com/2016/08/26/te ... warranted/

You will never see them at formations, the field, humps, offices or retirement ceremonies. No one knows what they actually do, but you can find them in the deepest corners of the Marine Corps. They exist in the darkness, in the shadows, manipulating the strings of their puppets.

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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:01 pm

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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:51 pm

Some small updates you may be seeing overhyped a bit (but which are still potentially positive dele.

- The Russians are about to completely run out of all food and several other supplies they stockpiled for the entire invasion at border supply depots. This is true. However it's not like Russia is out of food (or ammunition). This doesn't mean the Russian army has no supply, just that logistical privation is about to enter a new phase of desperation. Also, as we've seen, the south, which can be resupplied (albeit a bit awkwardly) by sea, and to a modest extent rail, is less affected than the north.

- More troops are being sent, which means Russia is virtually emptying the country to throw men into this fight. Yes, it's true that reinforcements ARE being sent from places as far away as Khabarovsk and Novosibirsk, including many supply trucks. But they will still be fresh troops, and Russia is quite far removed from voiding itself of men with guns, so this hardly makes revolution any more likely. More importantly, it will be hard to imagine these guys won't at least be told they're in for hard fighting and they will be fresh troops. If they can be supplied well enough these ones may not surrender half so easily.

On the other hand, who knows how badly the Russian army's "middle management" has been compromised. It's not impossible could see more conscripts who quickly lose the will to fight and have again not been prepped, though I wouldn't count on that. I do legitimately wonder if anyone has had the presence of mind to change the tires on the replacement trucks or not.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby zaratustra » Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:22 am

A valid point on twitter - even if the *troops* are fresh and well-supplied, it's possible Russia doesn't have any more good *tanks*.


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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mazian » Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:44 pm

atog wrote:Just ran across this motor pool ex-mil comment on the condition of Russian wheeled vehicles and now I'm wondering how much of this offensive has been stalled because someone didn't rotate their tires.


Continuing along those lines, here's another argument for "a lot", with the sub-argument of "...and it's not hampering them as much in the south, because it's less muddy there".

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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sat Mar 05, 2022 1:26 pm

zaratustra wrote:A valid point on twitter - even if the *troops* are fresh and well-supplied, it's possible Russia doesn't have any more good *tanks*.


Saw that thread. On closer examination of a number of points, it's a little over-hopeful, given there's a number of things in there Russia still has some capacity to improve. The broad points he's making ARE correct, so it's not like it's just garbage claims - there's some legit hope in there - but if the Russians don't collapse in the next week, don't be surprised either.

Also, regarding specifically main battle tanks, Russia has some 2800 tanks in total, including roughly 750 of the newer T90 (in varying marks and ages) and the rest being mostly older T72s. While they are losing a staggering 10 or more tanks per day in Ukraine, they're a long way from running out of tanks. APCs and such are another story, but it's a similar one, with similar numbers.

What really matters are those trucks resupplying all those fancy machines, which can be destroyed by far lesser weapons than Javelins, including stuff any partisan can get their hands on.

That said, Russia is coming up on a very critically weak period. As I mentioned they are completely out of supplies, at least in the north (some stuff is clearly getting through in the south). While they are rushing more men and supplies there as soon as possible the possibility is real that some forces may collapse in the north before any of that stuff can reach them. If a large enough portion of the Kyiv convoy (easily the most vulnerable operation) is destroyed or surrenders, that may have an outsized effect on morale and the Russian war plans in general.

Also as mentioned, they ARE getting supplies in the south, and if they can take the entire length of the southern part of the Ukrainian rail network, their chances improve a fair bit. If Russia does "win" the war part, it will be likely be through an excruciatingly slow grind up from the south and absolute brutalization.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby zaratustra » Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:14 pm


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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:34 pm

To be fair, the Ukrainians don't have the reach to directly strike most of it (they lost a lot of precious planes and drones trying). They're still cutting supplies and presumably waiting for it to collapse, while continually fighting the head of the column.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sun Mar 06, 2022 2:19 pm

Alleged FSB Whistleblower link shared by a Hungarian friend who works as a translator (he is not the translator of this document, however)

It's large (about 2k words, per the translator), but wow, even even half of it is true...

(there's also good news about the possibility of averting Nuclear WWIII in there, BTW, without even taking into account the author's generous estimation of Putin's instinct for self-preservation)

⇳ Click to Expand Summary
An alleged whisleblower analyst from the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) wrote some interesting stuff! I found it illuminating.

I think some scepticism about the source is warranted, here's the original twitter thread (including some context about the source):

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 0054637569

The translator is https://twitter.com/igorsushko

-----

My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an alleged active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects. I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:


I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable. Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world. This year’s harvest will be smaller and logistical problems will result in a catastrophe. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports. All of these political consultants and politicians and that powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone. For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked. But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash.

We have no answer to the sanctions because of this.

No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.

It’s the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?

Kadyrov has gone nuts. We were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians through their disinformation about having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. His squad was absolutely demolished before they even began to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.

Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If with Zelensky, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him.

ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.

To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule, if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.

2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.

These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.

With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen except only if we were to be attacked first. Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky without ever considering invading Ukraine.

Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. Recall the invasion of Mosul – it’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new.

To hold a siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years.

Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides, simply because the situation cannot remain under current conditions.

We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).

To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed.

The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.

By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.

100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans.

From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.

The enemy is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.

What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria. This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems.

As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away. Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.

I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.

Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.

Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. What if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.

Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).

We are plowing to create a scenario in which to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret.

A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.

Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.

Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.

Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of resources, and then ridiculous heat will come…. Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please notice – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.

Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.

Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.

With regards to prisons – it will be worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.

And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.

And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.

First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Mon Mar 07, 2022 12:56 am


"Is your country too corrupt to successfully rotate tires?" appears to be a lesson which will go down in history.


Incidentally, videos of heavy equipment headed east is showing some really old shit.

And then there's this:



There's a LOT of videos coming up like this in the past day or two. Huge numbers of assorted civilian trucks of all sorts, delivery vans, even minivans. Some really old Soviet-era fuel trucks too, grabbed from who-knows-where.

Sending soldiers out to do supply runs deep into enemy-held territory in those is just straight murder. No spare parts (because jumble of civilian vehicles), not even the slightest off-road capability. They're already dying horribly in nominally "proper" supply convoys (no death in video just lots of burned out trucks. I mean A LOT.):



UK intel is claiming the loss of fuel trucks in particular is at especially dire levels for the Russians (and naturally harder to replace) and that the Russians are now disguising fuel trucks as regular trucks in an attempt to stave off losses (and presumably encourage the crew to actually perform what's basically a suicide mission now).
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:24 pm

Oh my god I thought I'd posted about the drone takedown but I didn't

Remember that article in the cop thread where the robotics' expert said that the most devastation weapon you could use on a Big Dog was a jar of pickles? Well, on Saturday:

To which my (an others) response at the time was straight up "I am absolutely not going to fact check this."

Except it turns out that someone did and the fact-check makes it EVEN BETTER:

If you read the full article it's even better than the summary; the lady and her husband went around picking up drone fragments and glass shards because they were afraid the local dogs would cut their paws on them.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:15 pm

I didn't hear about this until today and I have no idea how this never came up before:

Russia's head of the Armed Forces, Sergei Shoigu, has never actually served in the army or in any other military capacity before he was appointed commanding General ten years ago (he was a bureaucrat responsible for managing the national emergency response org).

He was also widely considered to be Putin's choice to take over on his retirement, which ya gotta figure is no longer the case!
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:12 pm

Let the scapegoating commence!

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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:10 pm

Russian Defense Ministry: "Navalny was raised in Ukraine's secret biolaboratories"
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:57 pm



That's, uh, a rate of one per week.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:54 pm

Graffiti from Russia
In Novosibirsk, it seems that they accidentally created an object of contemporary art.

The longer you look at this photo, the better it gets.

Photo: Sibermedia


Text is basically "Fuck The War"
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby atog » Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:34 pm

So apropos of the earlier credible FSB leak, it appears it triggered a purge of the leadership of the FSB this weekend.

Its head, Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, and his deputy were being held after allegations of misusing operational funds earmarked for subversive activities and for providing poor intelligence ahead of Russia’s now-stuttering invasion. The operation has hit serious obstacles, not least fierce resistance by the Ukrainian armed forces and the unity of the population, including most Russian-speakers, behind President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government.


Seems here they're alleging not only leaks, but active sabotage of the intelligence service w/r/t Ukraine.
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:47 pm

So either the leak is confirmed... or the Ukrainians just pulled one of the most amazing wartime mindfucks any country's ever put over on another.

Either way, LAWDY LAWDY
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Re: Insane in the Ukraine

Postby Mongrel » Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:03 pm

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guess the location

Texas, because of course
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