GOP Will Shit Itself
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Though Kentucky rejected an amendment that would have banned it, so there's that, anyway.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Real Vanity Fair headline: Rupert Murdoch Knees Trump in the Balls While He’s Doubled Over Coughing Up Blood
Subheader: The message from the Murdoch-owned New York Post, Wall Street Journal, and Fox News is clear: Pack your bags, bitch. You’re done.
We seem to have reached the point where the conservative establishment is turning against Trump and pushing DeSantis instead.
Frankly I'm a little surprised it took this long -- I figured it would happen after the 2020 election, and certainly after January 6.
But precisely because I was completely wrong about that, I'm skeptical about how well it's actually going to work. The Republican establishment, including Murdoch, tried to stop Trump from getting the nomination in the first place, back in 2016; it didn't work out for them then, and he's a lot more popular among Republican voters now than he was then. Ultimately, as much power as Murdoch has over the Republican base, I think Trump has more. The establishment can push back against Trump all they want, but ultimately it's not up to them, it's up to primary voters, and primary voters still seem pretty goddamn Trumpist to me. A lot of shit can still happen between now and the primary, but I'm skeptical Trump will lose unless he's dead or in jail. I can see Trumpists backing DeSantis if Trump's off the table for whatever reason, but if the two of them are competing I think Trump wins.
At any rate, it's going to be a bumpy ride for the next couple of years, and it's always nice to see the Republicans fighting among themselves. They all deserve to be miserable.
Subheader: The message from the Murdoch-owned New York Post, Wall Street Journal, and Fox News is clear: Pack your bags, bitch. You’re done.
We seem to have reached the point where the conservative establishment is turning against Trump and pushing DeSantis instead.
Frankly I'm a little surprised it took this long -- I figured it would happen after the 2020 election, and certainly after January 6.
But precisely because I was completely wrong about that, I'm skeptical about how well it's actually going to work. The Republican establishment, including Murdoch, tried to stop Trump from getting the nomination in the first place, back in 2016; it didn't work out for them then, and he's a lot more popular among Republican voters now than he was then. Ultimately, as much power as Murdoch has over the Republican base, I think Trump has more. The establishment can push back against Trump all they want, but ultimately it's not up to them, it's up to primary voters, and primary voters still seem pretty goddamn Trumpist to me. A lot of shit can still happen between now and the primary, but I'm skeptical Trump will lose unless he's dead or in jail. I can see Trumpists backing DeSantis if Trump's off the table for whatever reason, but if the two of them are competing I think Trump wins.
At any rate, it's going to be a bumpy ride for the next couple of years, and it's always nice to see the Republicans fighting among themselves. They all deserve to be miserable.
- Mongrel
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
The thing about DeSantis is he's basically a dead fish compared to Trump. Trump knows how to be a bully, an asshole, but most importantly a charismatic showman (yes, yes, I know), in a way that DeSantis can never approach. This has always been the case and AFAIK has not changed in the least more recently.
For the MAGA chuds who are effectively nihilists (and that's a big chunk of them, but who can say what percentage), DeSantis is less than nothing, just another establishment "fake"; a politician. Trump is still the "Real Deal".
I mean, maybe we'll see the long-dreamed of GOP civil war, that would be neat. But honestly I'm not sure what happens here and I'm always wary about that particular prediction. Either way, I completely agree that Trump has clearly more power over the base than Murdoch does, and has won pretty much every head-to-head tilt with Fox news in the past. Murdoch got the clowns in alright, but now he's just another guy with cream pie all over his face.
EDIT: The other things is, what exactly could the GOP dump Trump from? All his power right now is in endorsements and speeches; he doesn't actually hold any office or party position; it's already a pure influence fight among the right-wing and Trump's winning even though he's outside the machine. His supporters like him best when he's outside the machine. They can denounce him, they can may deny him some appearances, but ultimately they don't have a strong hand in terms of leverage (except maybe blackmail or bribery?).
For the MAGA chuds who are effectively nihilists (and that's a big chunk of them, but who can say what percentage), DeSantis is less than nothing, just another establishment "fake"; a politician. Trump is still the "Real Deal".
I mean, maybe we'll see the long-dreamed of GOP civil war, that would be neat. But honestly I'm not sure what happens here and I'm always wary about that particular prediction. Either way, I completely agree that Trump has clearly more power over the base than Murdoch does, and has won pretty much every head-to-head tilt with Fox news in the past. Murdoch got the clowns in alright, but now he's just another guy with cream pie all over his face.
EDIT: The other things is, what exactly could the GOP dump Trump from? All his power right now is in endorsements and speeches; he doesn't actually hold any office or party position; it's already a pure influence fight among the right-wing and Trump's winning even though he's outside the machine. His supporters like him best when he's outside the machine. They can denounce him, they can may deny him some appearances, but ultimately they don't have a strong hand in terms of leverage (except maybe blackmail or bribery?).
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Mongrel wrote:The thing about DeSantis is he's basically a dead fish compared to Trump. Trump knows how to be a bully, an asshole, but most importantly a charismatic showman (yes, yes, I know), in a way that DeSantis can never approach. This has always been the case and AFAIK has not changed in the least more recently.
I think that Martha's Vineyard stunt was pretty effective with the sort of people who fall for that sort of thing.
I don't think it's enough for him to win a primary against Trump, but I think it suggests the kind of crude racist showmanship that could make him an effective successor to Trump.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
I'm still skeptical that Trump loses the primary, but I'm already seeing "he'll lose the primary and then run as a third-party candidate" takes, and I'm even more skeptical of those.
I'm sure if he loses the primary he'll be an intensely sore loser and make trouble for the nominee and the party. But the thing about a third-party run is, it would essentially be a write-in campaign. He wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in most states -- some (most notably Texas) have "sore loser" laws on the books that explicitly deny ballot access to candidates who've lost a party primary; others deny it simply by virtue of timing (by the time the party primaries are over, it's too late to meet the requirements to get on the ballot under another party or as an independent).
Trump does crazy shit all the time, and I won't completely rule out the possibility of a write-in campaign. But my instinct is that's too much of a humiliation.
I'm sure if he loses the primary he'll be an intensely sore loser and make trouble for the nominee and the party. But the thing about a third-party run is, it would essentially be a write-in campaign. He wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in most states -- some (most notably Texas) have "sore loser" laws on the books that explicitly deny ballot access to candidates who've lost a party primary; others deny it simply by virtue of timing (by the time the party primaries are over, it's too late to meet the requirements to get on the ballot under another party or as an independent).
Trump does crazy shit all the time, and I won't completely rule out the possibility of a write-in campaign. But my instinct is that's too much of a humiliation.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Yeah, I'm almost positive he'll win the primary. All this "division in the party", Murdoch against him, "moderates in the party wanting someone else" just feels like a repeat of early 2016.
He'll steamroll them all with insane comments, his base will get loud, and they'll go with him for fear of fracturing the party.
He'll steamroll them all with insane comments, his base will get loud, and they'll go with him for fear of fracturing the party.
- Mongrel
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
We all got front row seats, baby.
- Silversong
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Wait, can he even run in the primary until we're sure whether or not stealing government secret files was a crime? Or did that wrap up when I wasn't looking?
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Silversong wrote:Wait, can he even run in the primary until we're sure whether or not stealing government secret files was a crime? Or did that wrap up when I wasn't looking?
He can run until and unless he's convicted, which could well take until past the 2024 general election... if it even happens, yeah.
Although I suspect a judge could legally issue a court order preventing him from running, I, uh... doubt that would happen in this political climate. Like, I doubt the DoJ would even seek such remedy, because it would play way too well into the far-right narrative that the case is happening entirely as political persecution.
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Upthorn wrote:Silversong wrote:Wait, can he even run in the primary until we're sure whether or not stealing government secret files was a crime? Or did that wrap up when I wasn't looking?
He can run until and unless he's convicted, which could well take until past the 2024 general election... if it even happens, yeah.
And even then it depends on what he's convicted of. Some of the potential charges against him would bar him from holding office again, others wouldn't. A criminal conviction in itself doesn't prevent someone from running for president (Eugene Debs ran his campaign from prison); only a limited subset of crimes come with that punishment.
Nonetheless, he could very well be charged with some of those specific crimes.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Well I also meant, like, he can't run for office while he's in prison. Which, optimistically, could potentially remove him as a viable candidate for 2024.
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
The aforementioned Eugene Debs got nearly 1 million votes while in a prison cell, running as a communist
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Yeah, I don't really see him being very successful if he tries to campaign from prison, but there's no prohibition against it.
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
I stand corrected
How fleeting are all human passions compared with the massive continuity of ducks.
- Silversong
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-gover ... government
are republicans okay
In a lengthy speech, the businessman suggested a series of "little-g gods" like climate change, gun control, digital currency, child sacrifice and "trans-whatever" are part of a broader push to "achieve a one-world government" and "one-world religion."
are republicans okay
Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
OLD school conspiracy theory on the come back.
- Mongrel
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Re: GOP Will Shit Itself
Really enjoying the wild (but quite possible!) theory that Santos's mysterious millions came from scamming Russians who were willing to put a bunch of money into his campaign in an attempted influence op, which he just pocketed. Except he unexpectedly won so now he's screwed.
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