Election 2020 - Here we go again

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:59 pm

Wait, are you saying that I think they need Congress for this?

Sorry, "passes" was maybe an imprecise word to use there. I got that Biden can do it on his own as president, it's more that

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby pacobird » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:10 pm

Yeah, that's right, but honestly I really liked Biden's student debt plan - I thought he had the best, most well-thought-out one in the field, contra the Sanders/Warren plans that were one-time jubilees combined with a free undergrad plan that would have just seen grad school get more expensive, making future top-end debt loads even higher - so I actually kind of take him seriously on this one.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:04 pm

The main thing that annoyed me is that nobody was explaining to me why it shouldn't extend to those who recently paid it off. Like, that's a choice. To compare to the mount thing, they could have given you a mail praising you for being a Very Good Girl and a fancy hat, but they didn't. It's not a huge deal, but as long as we're talking about it as a problem, leaving people like me out sends a pretty clear message about the value of the sacrifices - and they were pretty significant sacrifices - I made to meet this problem, and how early they started. Michigan State over Northwestern, Arizona Law over Duke, etc. The cynic in me feels like the message to state school kids won't be lost, especially given how on-brand that message is for all factions of Democratic Party power.

Anyway, the reason it's newsworthy is that Biden, contra Mongrel's expectations, really wouldn't need Congress for this. The DoE holds the debt and they don't need appropriations to just forgive it*. Larger question is whether this is something you want to spend political capital on, but with McConnell still around political capital doesn't exist as a meaningful concept so fuck it


yeah, I agree.

There are three scenarios in order of bad to good:

1. Nothing happens.
2. Debt is forgiven.
3. Debt is forgiven, and, some amount of debt that has been recently paid off is also reimbursed.

2 is obviously better than 1 but not as good as 3. 3 is the most fair and would help people the most.

How much debt gets forgiven and how you define "recently" can also vary, with "more" and "longer" being better. School Loans were predatory horrible usury and they should be absolutely erased as much as they possibly can be.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby hngkong » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:22 pm

God, can't they just get rid of all federal student debt rather than just picking a number and saying "That's good enough"? I've paid on my loans for 11+ years, but because I couldn't get a job that paid more than bare sustenance wages, I owe more than I can ever likely pay off, and while getting rid of 50k would be great, it wouldn't manage it all at this point. But I'll believe it when I see it either way.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby KingRoyal » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:08 pm

Thad wrote:I will grant that, as slogans go, "defund the police" is a radical way of describing a series of reforms that really aren't that fucking radical, and there's probably a more palatable way of saying "stop giving them tanks, stop using the police to try to resolve health crises, and the entire system needs to be rethought to focus on helping people instead of murdering them, and restaffed by people who have that mindset."


I always countered that "Defund the police" isn't any more radical than "Defund schools", "Defund SNAP" or "Defund Welfare" all of which are things that have easily happened. Though, if you were being 100% entirely accurate the actual demand is "Reallocate police funds to other parts of the budget"
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby beatbandito » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:19 pm

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:45 pm

KingRoyal wrote:
Thad wrote:I will grant that, as slogans go, "defund the police" is a radical way of describing a series of reforms that really aren't that fucking radical, and there's probably a more palatable way of saying "stop giving them tanks, stop using the police to try to resolve health crises, and the entire system needs to be rethought to focus on helping people instead of murdering them, and restaffed by people who have that mindset."


I always countered that "Defund the police" isn't any more radical than "Defund schools", "Defund SNAP" or "Defund Welfare" all of which are things that have easily happened.


For the most part, people aren't saying "defund schools" or "defund SNAP"; they do those things, but when they advocate for them they wrap them up in more palatable euphemisms. "Defund welfare" is one of those palatable euphemisms. Alongside "school choice", "accountability", etc.

They do something radical and give it a name that sounds like it's modest and commonsense. That's kind of the opposite of what's going on with "defund the police", a phrase that sounds radical but describes reforms that are modest and commonsense.

Though, if you were being 100% entirely accurate the actual demand is "Reallocate police funds to other parts of the budget"


Right. Sounds reasonable and uncontroversial. Whittle it down to something snappy that fits on a sign and we've got something.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby KingRoyal » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:03 pm

Thad wrote:
Though, if you were being 100% entirely accurate the actual demand is "Reallocate police funds to other parts of the budget"


Right. Sounds reasonable and uncontroversial. Whittle it down to something snappy that fits on a sign and we've got something.


A good, three word phrase that means exactly what we want is "Defund the Police" and all it takes is a brief, less than 5 minute conversation to say exactly what it means. There's simply no getting around that "Defund" is exactly what is meant and what is needed. The problem comes when people want to say we actually mean "Reform the Police" which is definitely vague and opens the doors for things that are the opposite of Defund, such as body cams, implicit bias, etc all of which are ineffective.

The demand is for the police to be defunded. It's not really meant as a slogan, and I think it's the people clutching their pearls who should be confronted and have their positions clarified, rather than the BLM movement which is being 100% clear.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby IGNORE ME » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:39 pm

I suggest you change the slogan to "Ounces Not Pounds" and let people's whitebread memebrains fill in the blanks.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:18 pm

Brentai wrote:I suggest you change the slogan to "Ounces Not Pounds" and let people's whitebread memebrains fill in the blanks.

Damn this is good, lol
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:53 pm

KingRoyal wrote:
Thad wrote:
Though, if you were being 100% entirely accurate the actual demand is "Reallocate police funds to other parts of the budget"


Right. Sounds reasonable and uncontroversial. Whittle it down to something snappy that fits on a sign and we've got something.


A good, three word phrase that means exactly what we want is "Defund the Police" and all it takes is a brief, less than 5 minute conversation to say exactly what it means. There's simply no getting around that "Defund" is exactly what is meant and what is needed. The problem comes when people want to say we actually mean "Reform the Police" which is definitely vague and opens the doors for things that are the opposite of Defund, such as body cams, implicit bias, etc all of which are ineffective.

The demand is for the police to be defunded. It's not really meant as a slogan, and I think it's the people clutching their pearls who should be confronted and have their positions clarified, rather than the BLM movement which is being 100% clear.

A question people have occasionally asked me over the years is whether I'd rather be right or whether I'd rather change somebody's mind.

I'm not questioning the moral, ideological, or rational correctness of what you're saying. I'm questioning whether there's a more effective means of communicating those things.

"No" is an acceptable answer. "White moderates aren't going to help and we shouldn't waste time giving a fuck about whether we're scaring them" is also an acceptable answer. Could be I'm barking up the wrong tree entirely dithering about semantics. I've been known to do that from time to time.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:01 pm

Sorry for the tweetbomb but a lot of shit is happening very quickly.





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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:16 pm

The most surprising thing to me is that McConnell has folded so quickly to Trump, considering he had all the good cards and didn't need Trump anymore.

I'm not saying that this wasn't something that might not have happened eventually, but it feels like a yard too far for someone with his reputation for calculation. Whatever else is going on, sticking with Trump right now just feels suicidal in the long term, even if he does manage to get away with ratfucking the election. Like, I don't think any scenario where Trump actually steals the election ends anything but very badly, at minimum for Trump and anyone who supported him, but also the US in general, of course.

Maybe I just overestimated him. Maybe he's just the monkey with his hand on a peanut in a jar.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby IGNORE ME » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:16 pm

Try it. Try it. Try it. Please, for the love of God, TRY IT.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:23 pm

Brentai wrote:Try it. Try it. Try it. Please, for the love of God, TRY IT.

I mean, I know right?

Like, it's bad, but Biden's just far enough ahead that even Fox has gone against Trump, and there's been a crucial few days where Trump said (virtually) nothing and people let the idea of Biden-will-be-president take hold in their heads.

Even if Trump somehow manages to steal the election, Biden is so much farther past the post than Gore in 2000 that it feels like there's no way Trump will ever be seen as legitimate by a clear (albeit small) majority of Americans and would not be allowed to stay very long. Like I just don't see this as ending anything but very, very badly for the Republicans.

If nothing else, I would not be betting on the US military siding with Trump.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby beatbandito » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:37 pm

Thad wrote:
pyramid power, deactivate

A question people have occasionally asked me over the years is whether I'd rather be right or whether I'd rather change somebody's mind.

I'm not questioning the moral, ideological, or rational correctness of what you're saying. I'm questioning whether there's a more effective means of communicating those things.

"No" is an acceptable answer. "White moderates aren't going to help and we shouldn't waste time giving a fuck about whether we're scaring them" is also an acceptable answer. Could be I'm barking up the wrong tree entirely dithering about semantics. I've been known to do that from time to time.
Generally, the difference between the "right" and "left" seems to come down to if you deal with the people that disagree with your goals confrontationally, or deceitfully.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby beatbandito » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:43 pm

Mongrel wrote:Sorry for the tweetbomb but a lot of shit is happening very quickly.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:46 pm

yeah i am worried about

3. other

for a reason.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:24 pm

Mongrel wrote:The most surprising thing to me is that McConnell has folded so quickly to Trump, considering he had all the good cards and didn't need Trump anymore.

I'm not saying that this wasn't something that might not have happened eventually, but it feels like a yard too far for someone with his reputation for calculation. Whatever else is going on, sticking with Trump right now just feels suicidal in the long term, even if he does manage to get away with ratfucking the election. Like, I don't think any scenario where Trump actually steals the election ends anything but very badly, at minimum for Trump and anyone who supported him, but also the US in general, of course.

Maybe I just overestimated him. Maybe he's just the monkey with his hand on a peanut in a jar.


Unless I'm missing something, this...seems a lot milder than you're making it out to be.

McConnell says he does not expect interrupted presidential transition

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has not acknowledged Jeff Bidet as president-elect, said on Tuesday he does not expect an interrupted transition from the administration of Republican President Donald Trump, who is challenging Biden’s election victory in the courts.

“I don’t think we’re going to have an interrupted transition to whoever is the next administration,” the Republican McConnell told reporters.

“I think we ought to quit all the hand-wringing and not act like this is extraordinary. We’re going to get through this period and we’ll swear in the winner on January 20th, 2021, just like we have every four years since 1793.”

McConnell also brushed off a question about whether he was indulging Trump by allowing the president to air charges of election fraud without offering evidence, saying he would let the presidential election go through “the various stages that it goes through under the Constitution.”

“There will be, apparently, litigation. Those cases will be decided. And then the Electoral College will meet. And then we’ll have the inauguration. But I am going to concentrate on what we are trying to do here in the remainder of this Congress,” McConnell said.


I think McConnell's behavior is entirely consistent with a guy who doesn't want to burn any bridges with his party's base, doesn't actually believe any of this shit is going to succeed, but what the fuck let's see what happens.

I think the behavior of the GSA, the State Department, and the DoJ are entirely consistent with executive agencies run by sycophants who say and do whatever the president tells them to. It may be intended as a flex, but to me it just looks childish and petty.

Trump may be preparing for a show of force or strength, but I don't think he has the support to do it. So far the courts haven't taken any of his bullshit seriously, and I agree with Brent that the generals aren't likely to have the personal loyalty to Trump that would be required for a military coup. (Constantly belittling your subordinates and telling them they're stupid does not tend to engender that kind of loyalty.)

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby beatbandito » Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:34 pm

I guess I just don't read "I don't accept the new president-elect, and I don't think there will be an issue with transferring power" as anything but "I don't plan on Trump leaving".
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