Election 2020 - Here we go again

Niku
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Niku » Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:28 pm

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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:26 pm

And so the latest in "Could this be a thing that actually sticks?" is the headlines about Trump disparaging troops killed in WWI. There's no recording, which makes it easy enough to deny (not that a recording ever stopped him from denying he said something), but it seems like a series of campaign ads replaying the times he's disparaged soldiers and veterans on-camera wouldn't be remiss.

Keeping in mind, as always, that the goal here isn't to get people who are all-in on Trump to change their minds, it's to flip about 55,000 votes in the Rust Belt.

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Brentai
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Brentai » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:52 pm

As better people than me have pointed out, the man made fun of John McCain for being captured and tortured and went on to win both the Republican nomination and the election.

Will it stick? The question is "will it stick for two months" and history says no.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:33 pm

Brentai wrote:As better people than me have pointed out, the man made fun of John McCain for being captured and tortured and went on to win both the Republican nomination and the election.


Yeah, but he didn't have to run on his record back then.

That line would obviously be in the "Trump keeps attacking the troops" campaign ads I suggested someone should make.

Will it stick? The question is "will it stick for two months" and history says no.


Never mind two months; history says one asshole can swing the election a week and a half before it happens.

But Trump was only able to pull that off because of a series of flukes, not least of which was relentless "but her emails" hammering for the months leading up to the election (and, not for nothin', decades of "the Clintons are shady" coverage prior to that, some of it deserved, some not, most of it wildly out of proportion to the shit Trump's done).

I think the question at this point may be less "will anything stick to Trump?" than "will anything stick to Biden?" All that "Sleepy Joe" stuff doesn't seem to have worked; I don't think Trump's attacks on Biden's mental acuity have done much, in large part because they're coming from Trump. And I don't think anybody's buying the "Biden is a tool of the radical left who wants to defund the police" line -- if anything, I think he's under greater threat from people who want a radical leftist to defund the police staying home. I know every time I see another "Biden gets an endorsement from a Republican" headline I clench my teeth a little harder.

Biden has always been his own worst enemy, and there's still plenty of time for him to say some dumb shit that snowballs and wrecks him. But I still think he's under greater threat from an enthusiasm gap and, most of all, from Trump rigging the vote.

As always it's possible that I'm wrong and the implosion is already happening; Trump's closed the gap in the polls a little bit. He's still down by a pretty comfortable margin, but it's unclear at this point whether that trend will continue or whether this was just reversion to the mean and those numbers will stay more or less where they are.

At present Biden's got a 7.5-point polling lead. That's significant enough that, in a fair election held tomorrow, Trump's electoral college advantage wouldn't be enough to save him. It may even be significant enough that, in an unfair election held tomorrow, Trump's voter disenfranchisement efforts wouldn't be enough to save him. But of course that leaves the question of whether he can maintain that lead for another two months, and just how successful the Republicans' voter suppression efforts will be.

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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:41 pm

I really feel like, given the innumerable wild circumstances and the horrorshow that is 2020, the polls aren't even worth looking at until maybe Nov 1st.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Friday » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:16 am

I'm going to talk about the future now, and it's not that far away.

Let's look at the four most likely scenarios.

SCENARIO A:

Trump wins on the day, and after mail-in votes are counted.

SCENARIO B:

Trump wins on the day, but loses after mail-ins.

SCENARIO C:

Trump loses on the day by a slim margin, and also after mail-ins.

SCENARIO D:

Trump loses on the day by a large margin, and also after mail-ins.

**************

I think of these four scenarios, B or C is most likely, but that's not the point. I'm also not saying these four scenarios are the only possible scenarios, but I think we would all probably agree they're the four most likely outcomes.

Alright.

Let's look at Trump's likely responses.

A: "I won despite the Dems rigging the election! That's how much the people love me!"
B: "The Dems rigged the election and mail-in voting is fraud, just like I said. I won on the day and that's all that matters because mail-in voting is fraud!"
C: "The Dems rigged the election! Dems had people voting twice, mail-in is fraud!"
D: "Clearly losing by so much is proof the Dems rigged the election! People voting twice, mail-in fraud!"

Ok, so so far, I don't think I've said anything anyone would take issue or disagree with, yes? He will pretty much 100% say those things given those outcomes and I doubt anyone here (or anyone paying attention at all) would argue with me so far.

So the question becomes not what he will say, but he will do.

So, in Scenario A where Trump wins, will Biden just throw in the towel? "You got me fair and square, Trump, gg."

In B, C, and D, will Trump just throw it in? "I don't like losing an election to fraud, but I guess I will step down, gg."?

In Scenario A, the left will know for a fact that we lost because Trump actively worked to undermine and rig an election by suppressing votes and sabotaging the USPS.

In Scenario B, the Trump supporters will know for a "fact" that they lost because the Dems rigged the election, because Trump said so and anything Trump says is taken as Gospel by them.

So regardless of outcome, you are going to have roughly half the country absolutely sure that they only lost because the other side cheated.

So my question becomes this: Given the level of social unrest already gripping the nation and world, given the fact that the left and right are already murdering each other on the street, do you believe that in an election where one side believes the other side cheated to win that:

1: Things will calm down

2: Things will escalate

3: Things will escalate a lot

Obviously the safe answer is 2. 1 is absurd and only a fool would believe it.

I want you to ask yourself the following question:

Is it possible for large, sudden events in society and government to occur?

If so, do they tend to occur out of the complete blue, or are there events that lead to them in the years leading up to them?

Do you believe that large and sudden changes do not occur because they are rare?
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Mongrel
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:35 am

Alls I know is that it's all gonna get real goddamn ugly.

Trump has succeeding in tainting the election, a feat the founders feared with good reason, and so like you say, we're going to see something of those four scenarios. But it's no surprise that the basic functions of governance are falling apart when the social contract that really governed American life is in complete tatters after being shredded for decades.

Not for nothing did the "Cocaine Convention" immediately bring to mind the image of the Nazi high command all with straws up their noses (well they probably got injections, but anyway). Actual fascists showing up is the point where Godwin can take a hike (as he himself has pointed out).

That's the flip side to greed and tribalism and all their attendant ills. Eventually you really do lose all sense of reality and proportion and when you do that, sooner or later reality is going to come crashing down, because you don't actually get to live in a fucking evil mastermind fantasyland where the laws of nature or physics or demographics cease to fucking exist. You can't be coked out of your fucking brain and order a land war in Asia and magically expect to win because you think you're fucking invincible.

The only question is really how horrific the destruction becomes both before that crash and as a result of it. The idiots follow the pied piper but we all get to pay for it.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Büge » Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:43 am

Yeah.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:28 am

I think a lot of it's going to depend on how the Republican establishment chooses to spin it. Most of them have no loyalty to Trump except insofar as he's useful to them. And most of them haven't been willing to go along with his "rigged election" ravings up to this point. I see them backing him if the election is close, but I also see them cutting their losses if he loses decisively.

I think there's a significant portion of the GOP rank-and-file who just adopt whatever talking points come from the leadership. We're talking the 55% of primary voters who voted for not-Trump but went all-in once he was the party leadership. If the party leadership decides to do what it did with Bush post-2006 and insist that they never really liked that guy in the first place and he wasn't a real Republican anyway, then most, most of the party will go along with that. There might be some muttering about stolen elections, but I expect it'll look much the same as it has from Democrats for the past twenty years -- they grouse about it but, for the most part, go along with the results even though they don't like them.

Now, I did say most. I didn't say all. In this best-case scenario, there are most definitely still hardcore Trumpers who buy all this talk about stolen elections, some of them are going to be violent, and some of them are going to murder people with guns or bombs or cars. Some of them are going to be police.

I think that if Biden is elected, a lot of people are going to want things to go back to normal, but I also don't think that's going to happen. Police aren't going to stop murdering black people. (That part, at least, can accurately be described as "normal".) The BLM protests aren't going to stop. Paranoid white supremacist militia nuts are going to continue to come in to assist the police. Even if the GOP rats scurry away from a sinking Trump as fast as they can, the grievances that led to Trump are not only still there, they're an integral part of the Republican identity. The mainstream of the party may push that stuff back under the surface and go back to saying the quiet part quiet, but the lunatic fringe of the party is bigger, louder, and more dangerous than it's been in sixty years and it's not going away quickly or quietly.

And again, just to be clear, what I'm describing here is the best-case outcome.

And I haven't even gotten into the continuing ravages of COVID-19, what the line at Fox News is going to be, or any of the other variables that are going to come into play.

Yeah, the question isn't so much "will there be escalation?" as "how much?" With answers ranging from "widespread civil unrest, escalating attacks by law enforcement and citizen militias against peaceful protesters, and an increase in white supremacist terror attacks" to "civil war."

So, y'know. Fun times ahead.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:12 pm

As awful as it might sound, it's long past time leftists armed themselves.

The police and their enablers have already shown they're willing to murder them anyway. Like Dave Chappelle's joke about sprinkling crack on a dead black man, only with a water bottle or something next to an "antifa terrorist".
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Grath » Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:45 pm

Mongrel wrote:As awful as it might sound, it's long past time leftists armed themselves.

And y'all were judging me for being ahead of the curve. If you're serious about it, look into either Socialist Rifle Association or Redneck Revolt/John Brown Gun Club as far as pro-worker/anti-racist/anti-fascist gun organizations that can provide education and training.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:40 pm

'Play it down': Trump admits to concealing the true threat of coronavirus in new Woodward book

Woodward says he has audio. Speaking of the sort of soundbite that should be part of an ad blitz...

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby KingRoyal » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:34 pm

And Woodward sat on this information for 6 months?

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:58 pm

KingRoyal wrote:And Woodward sat on this information for 6 months?

Yeah, WTF Jesus Christ.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Yoji » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:17 pm

Now I'm furious not just with Trump, but with the journalist who broke the news.

He covered Watergate! This isn't the first time he's dealt with corruption coming from the top! And his response to this was to... wait for six months and a death toll roughly equal to the population of Mobile, Alabama?

Trump was right when he said he could shoot someone and get away with it. Problem is that's just as much an indictment against us as it is against him.
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:19 pm

I mean, on the one hand, I expect* better from Bob Woodward, but on the other hand, yeah, that's exactly what I expect** from Bob Woodward. Bob Woodward, the Crusading Journalist Who Brought Down Nixon is long gone, assuming he wasn't just an exaggerated narrative to begin with. He's Bob Woodward, the Guy Who's Got a Book to Sell now, and has been for decades.

There was a Daily Show some years back where Jon Stewart interviewed Woodward and Bernstein. The part of it that stuck with me is when Stewart asked a question about what happened to journalists, what's wrong with the media these days, and Bernstein responded that the problem is that they're more interested in getting, and keeping, access to powerful politicians than in telling the truth. I remember thinking "there's no way he said that and didn't realize he was talking about the guy sitting next to him."

* definition 2
** definition 1

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Thad
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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:06 pm

SCOTUSblog has an election litigation tracker.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Thad » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:59 pm

U.S. voting officials scramble in wake of 'misleading' USPS mailer

“The intention of the mailer was to send a single set of recommendations that provided general guidance allowing voters who choose mail-in voting to do so successfully, regardless of where they live and where they vote,” spokeswoman Martha Johnson said.


Yeah, maybe fucking don't do that, seeing as the rules for voting by mail depend on where you live and where you vote.

The postcards in question, mailed nationwide last week, tell voters to request mail ballots at least 15 days before the election.

However, several states - Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Hawaii and California - mail ballots automatically to all registered voters.


I got one of these fucking things in the mail today. It also says you may need to add postage. And I can't speak to other states, but that's not true in Arizona.

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Blossom » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:18 am

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Re: Election 2020 - Here we go again

Postby Mongrel » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:28 pm

Okay, okay. Points for this one.

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