Trump Leaving Office Poll

[Friday]

This poll assumes a Trump loss in November.

Just curious where you guys are at.

[François]

I picked 2.

As much as admitting defeat is not in his wheelhouse, it's pretty obvious that he doesn't like his job and that he'd be delighted to go back to a life where he doesn't ever have to be in the presence of someone who doesn't agree with him, so I'm not inclined to say there are no circumstances under which he would step down of his own accord. He doesn't need to be president to say whatever the hell he wants on twitter and bask in the adoration of his legions of brain-dead fans, and if he's not head of state anymore he'll never be in the same room as Merkel or Macron or Trudeau again and made to feel like the shriveled degenerate he is.

Even if he leaves though, his venom will outlive his presidency, and it will outlive him. MAGA hats aren't going away any sooner than the Confederate flag, that's for sure.

[Friday]

They even seem to have some sort of relation

I don't know why there's so much overlap, it's weird

[Cait]

Trump is incredibly aware that he has predicated extensive and blatant lawbreaking on "You can't touch me while I'm the president"

[nosimpleway]

Next January Trump will be just like, "Ha ha, got you guys, this was just a social experiment. I wanted to see how you'd react!"

Therefore,

write-in vote for GUILD

[Brantly B.]

Margin's probably going to be the big determinator here. If he loses by a popular margin of 2-3% (i.e. what he already did) and the electoral college, then he'll probably feel confident enough that he can outmaneuver or just intimidate the populace into accepting him anyway. If it's an overwhelming turnout then he will probably fold with what he has. The man is belligerent but he is not brave.

[Mongrel]

Margin's probably going to be the big determinator here. If he loses by a popular margin of 2-3% (i.e. what he already did) and the electoral college, then he'll probably feel confident enough that he can outmaneuver or just intimidate the populace into accepting him anyway. If it's an overwhelming turnout then he will probably fold with what he has. The man is belligerent but he is not brave.

This.

I also think a sizable number of poor white voters have turned on him for good, but the question remains of whether it is enough and in the right places to produce a margin of victory big enough to hand him an incontestable loss.

But before we get there, we have to consider what in the fuck is going to happen when Biden and Trump finally collide. That's going to be rough as fuck on Biden even with the Dems trying to kid gloves him. What the hell happens if he's incapacitated or hospitalized in the middle of the election? What if it's in late October? What the fuck even happens then, mechanically-speaking?

[atog]

This poll assumes elections won't be suspended, martial law instituted, and just sorta kinda hang around indefinitely through November, because executive orders.

[Thad]

Well, for one thing, there are two and a half months between the election and the inauguration, for Trump and Biden and everybody else to figure out what the hell just happened and what's going to happen next.

Assuming we get another Bush v Gore situation and it takes the Supreme Court stepping in, it's not so much a question of whether Trump will abide by the ruling as whether everybody else in the White House will. I still maintain that all Biden has to do is instruct the staff to disconnect the cable TV, change the wifi password, and quit bringing Trump food and he'll walk out that front door himself before the day is out.

That is, of course, assuming not just that Biden wins but that the Supreme Court doesn't nullify his victory like it did Gore's. Which is not at all guaranteed.

[beatbandito]

Biden would let Trump stay "in the interest of working with the opposition".

[zaratustra]

I actually think he'll just leave if he loses. This is why:

1) Trump hates being President even more than he hates losing. He likes running for President, and that's turned into hell for him now, and it would look less and less exciting after December.
2) If he loses and leaves, he gets to be in his favorite position, which is that everyone else is cheating and there's a conspiracy to put him down and you should give him lots of praise and money.
3) There's the possibility Trump might face criminal action, but Trump genuinely believes he's immune to criminal action, and in the last 73 years he's spent on earth, he's been proven right at that belief every single time.
4) He's scared. He's surrounded by his two worst fears in life - germs and black people. He's two seconds away from hauling ass to McAfee's Belize compound right now.

There's one counterpoint, that trump's inner circle might convince him to stay. His children and various lackeys aren't so invulnerable; they might inflate him until he decides that yes being president-for-life is a great idea actually, the best idea he ever had.

[Thad]

I think those are good points, but I don't really agree with that first bit, "Trump hates being President even more than he hates losing." I do agree that he hates being president, but he doesn't hate anything more than he hates losing. He can't stand losing face, ever.

I agree that he'll leave, because he's a coward and won't be able to handle even a modest amount of pressure. But he'll certainly throw a tantrum, and probably try to put up a fight. I just don't think a refusal to leave will last very long if SCOTUS rules against him -- which, again, is a very significant if.

[Cait]

I suppose the corollary to my earlier position is that if he does lose demonstrably, he's going to haul ass to somewhere that promises not to extradite him before January 20th rolls around.

[Thad]

Maybe. I think he'll try to bluff his way out. I don't think he's capable of understanding consequences.

[mharr]

He's not, but people with brains might be inconvenienced by his prosecution.

[Thad]

Sure, but his record of listening to what people tell him to do is spotty at best. Sometimes he even acts against Putin's interests.

[Brantly B.]

He's going to fuck off to an anti-democratic dominion that will close in to protect him while granting him some measure of shadow leadership and that dominion will probably be Kentucky.

[Grath]

I don't think Trump will want to actually serve a second term; I don't believe he intended to win last time. If he serves a second term, he can't grift for money to run again in 2024.

[Mongrel]

The GOP will be a lot less likely to support a guy who doesn't have any re-election prospects, so if he does win (aiieeee), it'll be interesting to see how fast the rats leave the White House.

Like right now, the GOP supports him, because, hey keep the Presidency to own the libs.

[beatbandito]

I don't think Trump will want to actually serve a second term; I don't believe he intended to win last time. If he serves a second term, he can't grift for money to run again in 2024.

My original thought was that he wants to run a huge campaign about getting donations that he can pocket and lose, but unless I'm missing it, he's not really doing as much fund raising right now as that would entail.