Trump Leaving Office Poll (Part 2)

[Thad]

Zoe Tillman: These Numbers Tell The Story Of Jan. 6 One Year Into The Prosecution

378 people charged with felonies, 327 with misdemeanors, likely more charges still to come. I'm pessimistic that anyone in the government will face consequences (though there's a decent chance Steve Bannon will end up doing some time for contempt of Congress).

[Friday]

Meanwhile Trump had a press release yesterday where he said that Biden is mandating child vaccines and "MAGA needs to rise up".

I know this isn't news to anyone here, but this isn't over. 2024 is coming.

[Yoji]

They were talking with Jamie Raskin's experience during the riot on the radio. My son seemed to actually hear the part about how his daughter was hiding under a desk, so we ended up talking about January 6th.

"...and that's about the short version of what happened."
"it's a good thing the bad man isn't president anymore""
"Well, his friends and people who like him are still here. It's like... imagine you and your friends are trying to pick something for dinner. Four people vote for pizza, three people vo-"
"i really like pepperoni pizza :D"
"Right, right. Four people for pizza, three pick stinky fish, and two people want to kill you and eat you. Like, it's good pizza got more points, but there are still people who want to eat you."
"that's bad! i would throw my kitty water bottle at them to stop them from eating me >:3"

And I really wish I knew what to do about the people who want to eat us.

[Destynova]

Tell them you are vaccinated and they will be vaccinated if they eat you?

[Friday]

brilliant

[Mongrel]

Well! That quote is indeed terrifying! D:

[Mongrel]

Okay, so you may or may not have seen that Bragg, former chief prosecutor building the case against Trump in NYC, has now, as DA, flushed the whole thing down the toilet. Maybe they got to him, maybe it was just a good old-fashioned sack of cash in an alleyway, whatever, just another crushing disappointment from the US political system.

But the most common take I'm seeing on this is that Bragg did it for his career, and like, I DO NOT understand how not going through with a Trump prosecution boosts his political future IN NEW YORK in ways that going through with it would not have done.

Lots of people love Trump, we know! And NY is corrupt as fuck, we know that too! But I was always given to understand that New York absolutely hates the orange fucker and has for decades (and 2020 numbers were Biden at 60% of the state and Trump had 37% if we want some hard figures), so how does this make Bragg MORE electable in NY?

Grath or somebody, explain this to me like I'm 5.

[Upthorn]

It will make sense in three years when trump is president again.

[beatbandito]

Grath or somebody, explain this to me like I'm 5.

Trump's only working grifts were old fashioned NY real estate fraud his dad taught him, and that is how 90% of all money in NY is made.

[Mongrel]

Grath or somebody, explain this to me like I'm 5.

Trump's only working grifts were old fashioned NY real estate fraud his dad taught him, and that is how 90% of all money in NY is made.

Yeah but IIRC it was those other guys with money in NY who hated Trump the most?

[beatbandito]

sometimes people don't like other people that do the same crimes as them

[Mongrel]

Right-wing attorney who challenged election results says Trump wrote him handwritten notes

[Thad]

Federal Court Sanctions MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell for "Frivolous" Legal Claims

For those who care about such things, Judge Nichols clerked for Justice Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court and was appointed to the federal bench by Donald Trump in 2019.

[Mongrel]

the notes keep coming and they don't stop coming

[Mongrel]

Hate to link WaPo twice in one day, but Fake Trump electors in Ga. told to shroud plans in ‘secrecy,’ email shows

the notes keep coming and they don't stop coming

[Thad]

The first January 6 hearing was extremely well-put-together and effectively presented.

I don't think it's going to have much of an impact on public perception or on ongoing investigations or future prosecutions, but I won't go so far as to say it doesn't matter, either. Accurately recording what happened, and presenting it in a way that's clear and easy to understand, is an end in itself.

I think our best-case outcomes, in terms of what I think is reasonably likely and not pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, look something like Iran-Contra without the pardons or Congress fucking up North's prosecution. I think it's reasonably likely that administration officials will go to prison, and I don't just mean the ones who are on their way their for contempt of Congress. I'm not optimistic enough to think it'll be anybody named Trump, but I do think it's reasonable to think that some of the conspirators could wind up in prison. Remember that there are still new charges being brought as the DoJ works its way up from the simpler prosecutions to the more complex ones, and that the last Iran-Contra conspirator was still awaiting trial when Bush pardoned him in 1992, 5 years after the hearings.

None of which matters much if Trump manages to get a second term, which is still possible. But I also think it's possible that this is a step in keeping him unpopular enough that he can't win an election even with all the steps Republican legislatures are taking to rig the vote. As hard as it may be to believe, "Donald Trump told neo-nazis to attack the Capitol and they did" is something a lot of people still don't realize -- most everybody heard about the attacks, but repeatedly and directly playing Trump's "Proud Boys, stand back and stand by" followed by a series of Proud Boys saying they attacked the Capitol because Trump told them to is the kind of message that might get through to poorly-informed swing voters. I don't have a lot of faith that it'll make much difference this November, but repeat those simple facts often enough in 2024 and I think it hurts his chances.

[nosimpleway]

People are angry that Fox News isn't broadcasting the hearings, but they have a constitutional right not to. Ever heard of the Fifth Amendment, people?

[Thad]

Nielsen reported 20 million people watched the first hearing; that's just people watching on TV, not the Internet.

Presumably the numbers for the second hearing are lower since it was in the morning, but it sounds like people are paying attention. (I haven't watched it yet but I intend to later.)

Fox appears to have abandoned its "ignore the hearings" strategy; it aired this morning's. It's possible that this is because they've realized they can't keep their audience from hearing about it and the best they can do is try to control the narrative. But it's also possible this is Murdoch deciding he's had enough of Trump's shit; the New York Post and Wall Street Journal editorial boards both just announced their opposition to Trump's reelection.

Polling I've seen indicates that the overwhelming majority opinion right now is pretty strongly anti-Trump, but how people are responding to a poll in June doesn't necessarily tell us anything about how people are going to vote in November, let alone in 2024. The public has a horrible tendency to have a short memory, and while I'd love for this time to be different, I'll believe it when I see it.

Just for the moment, though, it appears that people are paying attention and, by and large, drawing the obvious conclusions based on the evidence. That's a start, anyway.

[Mongrel]

There IS enough material to indict him though, and it's possible that if this happens again he won't have nearly as much defence from media as he would have had without these hearings. But then again "Ah. Well, nevertheless!"

Also, obvious the MOST important takeaway here for the public should actually be "Yes a coup nearly DID happen in the United States with hundreds of public officials or employees thereof being complicit."

Maybe with the debatable corollary that the only reason it didn't come off is because Trump is a fucking buffoon.

[Thad]

There IS enough material to indict him though,

That does seem to be the main headline coming out of today's proceedings. Which is good.

and it's possible that if this happens again he won't have nearly as much defence from media as he would have had without these hearings. But then again "Ah. Well, nevertheless!"

My problem with that meme isn't the substance, which I agree with, but the attitude. I don't have a whole lot of faith that Trump will face any real legal consequences, but I think the appropriate response to people who still do isn't to point and laugh at them. I've always thought it seems like an object example of how Twitter makes discourse terrible.

Also, obvious the MOST important takeaway here for the public should actually be "Yes a coup nearly DID happen in the United States with hundreds of public officials or employees thereof being complicit."

Yeah, I'd like to see Trump convicted in an actual court, but if the best we can hope for is the court of public opinion, I'll take it.